•THESIS: Q4/11: We expect growing Ofirmev adoption in valuable inpatient market;
Ofirmev’s ultimate commercial potential driven by outpatient use. We think Ofirmev will ultimately be used in post-op analgesia in
~1/3 of US surgical procedures with peak US sales of $643M.
We think Ofirmev will see the most use in outpatient surgery and ambulatory care. Investment highlights
•CAVEAT: EPS of $(0.37) missed consensus
• We expect additional targeted marketing campaign to drive surgeon pullthrough, higher vial per patient use and Ofirmev revenue.
We think CADX’s targeted marketing push may drive additional adoption by surgeons, increasing the average vials/patient. CADX expects to hit 4 (vs. current 2-2.5) by 2018 as Ofirmev use grows in the leveraged inpatient market.
• We expect near-term wobble in Ofirmev average vials per patient with
market expansion but continued sales growth.
Ofirmev is typically initially used by anaesthesiologists and for ambulatory surgeries (~1 vial/patient) who also tend to be the early adopters, so we would not be surprised if average vials/patient decreases in the near term as new adoptions continue. However, we expect continued sales growth and the average
vials/patient number to increase as Ofirmev use grows in inpatient
surgeries by surgeons.
AMRN : NASDAQ : US$7.27 Buy , Target US$25.00
On target on commercial, partnership potential of
We think AMR101, Amarin’s 96% EPA omega-3 for high triglycerides, will be approved for hypertriglyceridemia in H2/12, likely around its July 26 PDUFA data, with a broad label. We expect IP and business development progress in H2/12.
Our $25 target is based on a pNPV analysis.
AMR101 patent progress and strategies.
Note continued heavy investor focus on AMRN’s patent application progress, but misplaced importance on routine office actions, such as non-final rejections.
• AMR101 patent strategy is strengthened by breaking up core patents into separate continuation patents. AMRN noted that it has chosen to essentially break up the key ‘889 MARINE indication patent into five further continuation patents by claim types, and will prosecute each set of claims this way.
The continuation patents are independent although often (as in this case)
reviewed by the same examiner. AMRN continues to state that its interactions with the ‘889 reviewer remain productive and cordial.
• Patent tree: AMRN continues to strategically progress AMR101’s patents while evaluating commercial strategies for expected H2/12 approval.
AMRN has now filed 16+ patents across 11+ patent families in order to optimally protect AMR101.
What’s In Your Library ?
Rule No.1 First Invest In Yourself
Rule No. 2 You Can’t Profit From Books You Don’t Read
This review is for: Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012 http://amp2012.com/2012/03/10/
The first edition of Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio authored by Jack A. Bass, was published in March 2012. This review is based upon reading that edition and the author’s stock market letter at http://www.amp2012.com
This comprehensive volume (some 500 pages ) offers the reader the nuts and bolts as to what the Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio strategy is based upon – investing , trading and selection.
While many investors today talk about an ” investing” style, I challenge how many have actually developed their own criteria – here in this 500 page volume is a written system and series of selections. Many of the basics have stood the test of time. The volume also allows for junior companies to be considered with the ” blue chips” of each sector. More than 150 companies are profiled.
The books offers Watchlists of stock selections in a variety of sectors such as energy and precious metals. This will allow the reader to create a portfolio in line with the AMP process and thinking. In that way a great deal of hard work has already been done.
It should be noted that the book contains information on how to analyze a wide variety of stocks. Actually a great proportion of the book is devoted to giving the investor the basic thesis of why an industry such as energy was chosen and why particular stocks are the top picks for each industry or sector analysis. Information is in a clear and readable format.
Different from Graham and Dodd’s disdain for “speculators,” or what we might call “traders” the author gives actual trades to back up the assertion that not every selection has to be made until ” death do you part “.
Stock Market Magic : Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio is a “must have” book for any serious investor’s library.
The E-book Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio is available on amazon.com
For the print edition AVAILABLE NOW – 500 pages soft cover
Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012
Send your check or money order for $ 28.75 payable to Jack A. Bass to:
Jack A. Bass
92-6887 Sheffield Way
Chilliwack, British Columbia
Canada V2R 5V5
Please Allow 3-4 weeks for delivery