OraSure Technologies |
Health clinic appetite for rapid HCV testing
THESIS: Community health confirms/ requires - critical importance of rapid point- of-care testing for HIV / HCV.
•HIV rapid tests increased. A community health center, which uses OraQuick HIV, commented it doubled its HIV rapid test volume last year due to cutbacks at other local public health clinics, as patients migrated seeking care.
HCV rapid test is appealing. The community clinic plans to incorporate rapid HCV testing soon and cited the CDC’s estimate that 25-30% of the 1.2M Americans infected with HIV are also infected with HCV.•
Still utilizing risk-based testing. While the clinic mainly offers HCV testing to high risk individuals, it is becoming increasingly aware of age-based screening for baby boomers.
Correctional facility HCV testing.
While budgets are tight and treatments are expensive, the clinic director believes that the entire 2.3M U.S. prison population should be tested for HCV, to minimize the burden on the healthcare system when they are released (~$45M estimated HCV testing opportunity).
Our $15 price target is based on a three-year discount to our 2016 revenue estimate ($198M), applying a premium 5.5x P/S multiple and conservative 20% discount.