Bombardier

English: Bombardier CSeries mockup Italiano: M...

English: Bombardier CSeries mockup Italiano: Modello dimostrativo del Bombardier CSeries (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

BBD.B : TSX : $4.64

Shares of Bombardier were higher after press reports indicated that EasyJet is on the verge of a large new order that may include BBD’s CSeries commercial jets. As reported by LesEchos, the British company, which reported a significant improvement in half-yearly results, is preparing a new giant order of more than 100 aircraft in the coming weeks, which would incorporate Airbus A320 or Boeing 737, as well as Bombardier CSeries. “Our future order will focus on Airbus or Boeing, but also on Bombardier,” said Carolyn McCall, Executive Director, at the presentation of the half-year results.

Recently, BBD reported its Q1/13 report where the company reiterated its 2013 and 2014 guidance.

Key points include: BBD expects 190 business jet deliveries, up from 179 in 2012, and 55 regional airliners, an increase from 50 units in 2012.
BBD’s Q1/13 business jet orders of only 27 units were on the low side.

Canaccord s Analyst David Tyerman think this is temporary. Management reiterated that it is cautiously optimistic about order prospects
given the company’s pipeline, especially in larger aircraft types. Regional airliner orders were very weak in Q1/13, with no regional jets ordered and only four turboprop orders secured. However, as with business jets, these orders are lumpy.

BBD continues to believe it has a good shot at larger U.S. airline orders as those airlines up-gauge smaller regional jets. In addition, the company is positioned to capture further orders from Garuda from option conversion and Russia, China and Africa hold some promise.

Airline Stocks Headed Higher

George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential

The improved global economy has helped to drive up the spending habits of consumers, and an area that has really benefited from the income creation is the travel sector.

Airlines around the world have reaped the benefits from the improved travel sector.

The airline sector is estimated to earn $10.4 billion in profits this year, up from the previous estimate of $8.4 billion, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). (Source: “Small Boost to Airline Profitability – Industry Profit Margin Improves to 1.6%,” International Air Transit Association web site, March 20, 2013.)

According to the IATA report, the top market in the airline sector is predicted to be the Asian-Pacific airlines, with estimates calling for $4.2 billion in net profits this year, up from $3.9 billion in 2012 and accounting for a 40.4% share of the total global airline sector.

The North American airline sector is also looking good, with profits estimated at $3.6 billion this year, well ahead of the $2.3 billion recorded in 2012.

Coming in third is expected to be the Middle Eastern airline sector, with $1.4 billion in profits, more than 50% higher than the $900 million in 2012.

The airline sector has been improving since the end of the recession. Lower fuel costs and increased bookings and travelling have helped to drive up the sector.

Take a look at the Dow Jones US Airlines Index  Notice the beautiful uptrend since November 2012 in correlation with the S&P 500 In the low-cost discount side, a carrier that I frequently fly with and like is JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ/JBLU). I have followed the stock for over a decade and continue to feel the company has what it takes to be a major player in the discount airline sector.

First formed in 1998, JetBlue Airways is a discount air carrier serving markets in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico; along with 10 countries in the Caribbean and Latin America region. JetBlue offers services to 77 cities via 800 daily flights.

In April, the airline’s key revenue passenger miles reading came in at 11.5 million for an 83.8% load factor, up 6.8% year-over-year. (Source: JetBlue Airways Corporation, last accessed May 16, 2013.)

Following a decline in revenues from 2008 to 2009, JetBlue came back with growth in 2010 to 2012 and Thomson Financial estimates call for the growth to continue in 2013 and 2014.

For more of a global airline sector play, United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE/UAL) is worth a look. The company formed from the merger of Continental Airlines and United Airlines in 2010.

United Continental offers around 5,446 flights daily to 370 airports on six continents.

Revenues are predicted to rise three percent to $38.3 billion this year, followed by $39.7 billion in 2014, up 3.9% year-over-year.

 

Transat A.T. Inc. PROFIT FOCUS DELIVERING GAINS

English: The Transat AT headquarters Français ...

English: The Transat AT headquarters Français : Le siège social de Transat AT (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

TRZ.B : TSX : C$5.75
BUY
Target: C$8.50

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Transat A.T. Inc. is an integrated tour operator that specializes in holiday travel and offers more than 60 destination countries.
Transat owns an air carrier, provides destination services, is active in the accommodation ind industry and operates an extensive distribution network.

Much improved results again in Q1/F13


Transat’s (TRZ’s) Q1/F13 results were much stronger YOY, marking the third straight quarter of improvement. EPS came in at a loss of $0.56,
which was substantially better than the loss of $0.79 in Q1/F12. However, Q1/F13 EPS did lag our and the consensus mean estimates of a loss of
$0.48.
TRZ benefitted from capacity control, which produced sufficient price gains to more than offset European weakness. Cost reductions helped too.
Profit over volume focus for Q2/F13 and H2/F13 could pay dividends TRZ is aggressively cutting capacity in an attempt to boost margins through better pricing. The company is targeting a 10% capacity reduction in the key sun destination market for Q2/F13. TRZ’s strategy appears to be working as pricing on booked sun destination business is up.
The story is the same for the key transatlantic market in H2/F13. H2/F13 transatlantic capacity is projected to decline 11% and so far, TRZ has been
able to achieve better selling prices on transatlantic bookings.
Recovery potential remains
TRZ is implementing a wide range of cost, product, and technology improvements, which together with capacity control, are intended to return TRZ to profitability. We continue to model a partial profit rebound.
Forecast cut, target increased
We have cut our forecast modestly, assuming a slightly more cautious rebound given the Q1/F13 miss versus our forecast. This remains a risky
call, based on past experience, as competitor actions could potentially trump TRZ’s profit improvement initiatives. We have increased our target due to our slightly lower debt in our forecast. Our target multiple is unchanged at 4.0x EV/NTM EBITDA in one year. Our valuation multiple is well below the five-year average of 5.3x EV/NTM EBITDA in one year due to high forecast risk. We have maintained our BUY rating due to the attractive rate of potential return to our target.

Bombardier Inc. Target $ 5.25

Bombardier Global 5000 business jet takes off

Bombardier Global 5000 business jet takes off (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bombardier Inc. 

BBD.B : TSX : C$3.90
BUY Target: C$5.25

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Bombardier operates in two major and roughly equally sized segments: 1) aerospace equipment including business jets and small airliners, and 2) rail equipment. Products are sold and manufactured on a global basis.

Transportation and Industrials — Airlines and Aerospace
OUTLOOK REMAINS STRONG ALTHOUGH Q4/12 DELIVERIES DISAPPOINT
Strong Q4/12 orders support our rebound forecast…
Bombardier (BBD) announced its full-year 2012 aerospace orders and deliveries. Aerospace orders, particularly for business jets, were stronger than we expected. We believe the growing backlog for both business and commercial aircraft is setting the company up for potential delivery increases, especially in 2014 and beyond.
Although Q4/12 delivery shortfall drives a minor forecast reduction BBD’s Q4/12 deliveries and mix (more narrow-body business jets, fewer
wide-body) modestly missed our expectations. We have adjusted our forecast accordingly with slightly negative near-term implications.
Considerable upside potential
We project EPS of $0.72 by 2015, powered by expectations of a significant rebound in business jet demand, some rebound in other aircraft demand, and an improvement in Bombardier Transportation (BT) sales and margins. Considerable upside potential exists beyond that
timeframe from the launch of the CSeries airliner and new Global business jet models.
We continue to recommend BUYing BBD shares for BBD’s growth potential, believing our gradual recovery forecast represents the most likely outlook scenario for BBD. We currently use a premium valuation multiple to reflect the early stage of BBD’s rebound and growth phase.
We believe our target is well supported by our C$8.23 DCF valuation.

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