REGI : NASDAQ : US$9.91
BUY
Target: US$12.00
COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Renewable Energy Group is the largest producer of biodiesel in the United States. As a fully integrated producer, Renewable Energy‘s capabilities include feedstock acquisition, facility construction management, facility operations and biodiesel marketing.
Investment recommendation
While we expect shares to remain volatile given the commodity-driven economics, we stay constructive as trends remain very favorable for RIN
prices thus far in ‘13. Maintain BUY, raise target to $12.
Investment highlights
REGI reported Q1/13 results above guidance (adjusted EBITDA of ~$5- 15M), reporting revs/adjusted EBITDA of $211.4M/$22M (on 38.9M
gallons) vs. our $201.0M/$14.7M estimates (normalized for reinstatement of blender’s credit, revenue ~$339.3M w/ credit).
Management execution stays strong, as “blender’s bounty” gets recognized (following careful contract negotiations) and capacity/distribution continue to increase. The balance sheet also stays strong, even with strategic inventory build of higher cloud point product ahead of warmer months.
RVO and favorable RIN pricing drive a strong outlook, with Q2 adjusted EBITDA expected at ~$35-50M (~55-65M gallons) and Q3 at ~$25-40M
(~55-70M gallons).
Our ‘13 rev/adjusted EBITDA estimates go to $1.28B/$130M from $1.1B/$101.9M, while’14E goes to $1.18B/112M from $1.07B/$70.6M.
Valuation
We derive our $12 target (from $9.00) by applying a 4.0x EV/EBITDA multiple to our ’14 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $111.6M.
Risks
Commodity price movements, future financing needs, project execution.
Related articles
- Renewable energy groups in spat (politico.com)
- Renewable energy group raises € 65 million (irishtimes.com)



