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REGI : NASDAQ : US$9.91
Renewable Energy Group is the largest producer of biodiesel in the United States. As a fully integrated producer, Renewable Energy‘s capabilities include feedstock acquisition, facility construction management, facility operations and biodiesel marketing.
While we expect shares to remain volatile given the commodity-driven economics, we stay constructive as trends remain very favorable for RIN
prices thus far in ‘13. Maintain BUY, raise target to $12.
REGI reported Q1/13 results above guidance (adjusted EBITDA of ~$5- 15M), reporting revs/adjusted EBITDA of $211.4M/$22M (on 38.9M
gallons) vs. our $201.0M/$14.7M estimates (normalized for reinstatement of blender’s credit, revenue ~$339.3M w/ credit).
Management execution stays strong, as “blender’s bounty” gets recognized (following careful contract negotiations) and capacity/distribution continue to increase. The balance sheet also stays strong, even with strategic inventory build of higher cloud point product ahead of warmer months.
RVO and favorable RIN pricing drive a strong outlook, with Q2 adjusted EBITDA expected at ~$35-50M (~55-65M gallons) and Q3 at ~$25-40M
Our ‘13 rev/adjusted EBITDA estimates go to $1.28B/$130M from $1.1B/$101.9M, while’14E goes to $1.18B/112M from $1.07B/$70.6M.
We derive our $12 target (from $9.00) by applying a 4.0x EV/EBITDA multiple to our ’14 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $111.6M.
Commodity price movements, future financing needs, project execution.
Posted by jackbassteam on May 3, 2013
( Western Wind is featured in The Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio from Amazon Books )
Brookfield Renewable Energy
(BEP.UN : TSX : $30.14)
Western Wind Energy
(WND : TSX-V : $2.51)
”Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners has increased its all-cash offer for the shares of Western Wind to $2.60/share from $2.50/share and has extended the expiry time of the offer to February 11, 2013 from January 28, 2013. BEP.UN indicates that 22% of independent shareholders have either entered into lock up agreements or have advised that they will tender the shares to the offer.
While this may seem like a no-brainer for Western Wind shareholders as it represents a 119% premium to the share price prior to the nouncement that it was for sale (July 28, 2012)…we suspect the Western Wind CEO will continue to posture for an even sweeter bid. Just a couple days ago, BEP.UN demonstrated their frustration with Western Wind, saying there were terminating discussions. Upon making its offer in November 2012, the company said its preferred approach was to work with the Board and the advisors towards a Board supported transaction.
However the gloves have now come off. In a recent press release, BEP.UN said, ―Unfortunately, based on Western Wind’s conduct since
commencement of the Offer it appears that Western Wind, and in particular, its CEO, has no intention of selling the Company.
In fact, Brookfield Renewable’s recent discussions with Western Wind appear to have been orchestrated by the Company to enable it to issue its January 22, 2013 news release as well as its Notice of Change to its Supplementary Director’s Circular, and raise shareholder expectations that a revised proposal will be made, despite there being no agreement or understanding between the parties regarding a proposal or its terms.‖ BEP.UN also points to the fact that Western Wind said 56 parties were interested in acquiring the company, yet no alternative proposals have emerged.
Interestingly, management of Western Wind has also managed to convince its board of directors to approve early payments of their change of control payments (despite the fact that no sale was on the horizon). Ciachurski received approximately $3 million. Better yet, Ciachurski continues to have a special bonus arrangement in which he would receive another $3 million if he gets $3.00 a share for the company…aka…the battle is
likely not over .
Posted by jackbassteam on January 30, 2013
Solazyme (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Renewable Energy Group (REGI : NASDAQ : $4.81 | BUY):
Near-term conditions stay challenged given the current macro environment, while recent finalization of the RVO for ’13 at 1.28B gallons helps supports the medium-term outlook (with 2014 expected in near to medium term). While we expect shares to remain volatile (commodities, RIN controversy, etc.), we stay constructive on the longer-term opportunity. Our new price target $6.50 (from $8.50).
Solazyme (SZYM : NASDAQ : $8.50 | BUY):
Encouraging execution on milestones thus far, with commercialization efforts continuing. Algenist should continue to gain traction, while a tougher DoD budgetary environment gets embedded in the current outlook. All eyes remain on the Bunge JV facility build- out in 2013 ( and potential for future fundraising), while share volatility likely remains in the near term. Maintain BUY.
Darling International (DAR : NYSE : $16.55 | HOLD):
We remain impressed with the strategic vision (and potential for additional organic/inorganic growth) following the recent investor day. While we favor the longer- term opportunity, risk/reward is balanced into late 2012 r – markets remain oversupplied and Street expectations start to assume a quick ramp of Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) in H1/13 (not yet in our estimates).
Westport Innovations (WPRT : NASDAQ : $28.41 | HOLD): Given the recent downward revision to guidance (FY12 revs in the $340-350M range, vs. original $400-425M expectation), near-term results become less important than the expected with trajectory in ’13 (as HD shipments look to get pushed out further). We wait for additional color on the call to adjust our model. While we continue to favor management’s strategy (and the macro) believe the risk/reward stays balanced.
Fuel Systems Solutions (FSYS : NASDAQ : $16.41 | HOLD): While visibility on the ramp of model year ’13/14 volumes in North America is constrained near term, we finf the Street somewhat under-appreciating the potential for contract wins and the long-awaited Asian business to help support the outlook into the ‘13/’14 period. Maintain HOLD.
Posted by jackbassteam on November 1, 2012