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Magna International Inc. BUY Target $ 75

Mila (concept car division of Magna-Steyr) Alp...

Mila (concept car division of Magna-Steyr) Alpin, 2008, seen at MOTOR SHOW ESSEN 2010 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

MGA : NYSE : US$64.71
MG : TSX
BUY
Target: US$75.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Magna is a one of the world’s largest and most diversified Tier 1 automotive components suppliers, active in 25 countries. The company also provides
complete vehicle assembly services through its subsidiary, Magna Steyr.

Substantial Q1/13 upside surprise, guidance increased MGA reported EPS of $1.57, ahead of our $1.44 and the consensus mean $1.44. Positive surprises versus our forecast were on European sales and margins. 2013 guidance was also modestly increased.
We boosted our near-term forecast slightly given the guidance and boosted our mid-term forecast more significantly to model better European margins (but consistent with management’s goals). EPS was also boosted by our assumption that all of MGA’s current 12 million share buy back will be utilized, per management’s commentary.
Solid EPS growth expected
MGA produced 18% EPS growth in 2012 from strong North American sales and improved European margins. We forecast annual EPS growth
to slow to high single-digit to low double-digit rates through mid-decade from expectations of slowing industry growth in North America,
eventual gradual recovery in Europe, and modest margin expansion. Solid upside, with additional potential
We continue to recommend BUYing MGA for solid EPS growth, modest multiple expansion, and the potential for additional value creation from
cash deployment and/or business streamlining.
We expect EPS growth from forecast low- to mid-single-digit sales growth, based on booked business and gradual margin improvements in
Europe and Rest of World (ROW) segments.
We have boosted our valuation 0.5x to a 5.5x EV/NTM EBITDA multiple, as we think there is increasing investor interest in consumer growth
cyclical stocks like MGA. Our valuation and target is supported by our $77.61 DCF analysis.
Our target was boosted nicely (17%) this quarter based on the forecast increase, benefit from our usual one-quarter valuation period roll forward,
and the valuation boost.

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by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Infrastructure
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/14/magna-international-inc-buy-target-75/

Magna International Inc.

Mila (concept car division of Magna-Steyr) Alp...

Mila (concept car division of Magna-Steyr) Alpin, 2008, seen at MOTOR SHOW ESSEN 2010 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Nov. 9

Magna International Inc.

MGA  NYSE  $ 44.67

MG  TSX

 

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Magna is a one of the world’s largest and most diversified Tier 1 automotive components suppliers, active in 25 countries. The company also provides complete vehicle assembly services through its subsidiary, Magna Steyr.

BUY for attractive valuation, but growth looks limited
MGA has been a strong share price performer in 2012, in part due to nice EPS growth and more so from valuation expansion. We think the stock has more valuation expansion potential, although this may be limited by sector valuations. We believe EPS growth is set to slow.
Our forecast was increased in this report due to company specific adjustments, which contributed to the increase in our target price. We think the share price appreciation potential remains attractive assuming a relatively normal 5x EV/NTM EBITDA multiple. Our target is supported by our $68.42 DCF.
Beat on Rest of World (ROW) EBIT; guidance raised
MGA reported EPS of $1.13, ahead of our $1.05 estimate and the consensus mean of $1.01. MGA’s 2012 sales guidance was stronger than we expected and we adjusted our Q4/12 forecast slightly higher.
After reviewing Q3/12 results and guidance and assessing trends, we boosted our sales forecast and North American and ROW margins.
Slowing EPS growth expected in next couple of years
We believe MGA is on track for solid double-digit EPS growth in 2012 from strong North American sales and improved European margins. We forecast high-single-digit annual EPS growth from 2012-14 due to slowing industry growth in North America and industry weakness in Europe. We expect these factors to limit sales growth and margin expansion.
Looks inexpensive, but normal valuation spread relative to the group
MGA’s valuation looks attractive relative to its historical multiples and DCF, but normal relative to the group. We think this suggests the potential for an upward bias in valuation, but the upside potential is probably limited by group valuation moves.

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by jackbassteam on November 9, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Detroit, Economic Recovery
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on November 9, 2012

http://amp2012.com/2012/11/09/magna-international-inc/

General Motors – As GM Goes So Goes The Economic Recovery ?

Sequel, a hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicle f...

Sequel, a hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicle from General Motors. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

General Motors (GM : NYSE : US$25.50)

A solid third quarter gives optimists reasons to believe .

Q 3 EPS were $ .85 on revenue of $37.6 billion while analysts were expecting $0.60 on revenue of $35.7 billion. Results were strong across the board, with North America leading the way posting a profit of $1.8 billion. Europe is still expected to lose $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion for the full year, though some analysts have said that this number could have been worse. Additionally, 30% of eligible retirees are accepting pension buyout offers which will eliminate $29 billion of the company‟s pension liability

. CFO  ( Dan Ammann  ) said that the company‟s improved revenue was a split between increases in pricing and volume and that negative foreign currency impacts trimmed $1 billion from the top line.

Separately, the company said that vehicle sales in the northeast U.S. will be hurt by Hurricane Sandy, although it did not provide a specific estimate.

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by jackbassteam on November 1, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Economic Recovery
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on November 1, 2012

http://amp2012.com/2012/11/01/general-motors-as-gm-goes-so-goes-the-economic-recovery/

Westport Innovations – Update

English: Revenue stamp (2pi) for financing the...

English: Revenue stamp (2pi) for financing the construction of Hejaz Railway in the Ottoman Empire. Listed as No. 17a in W. McDonald’s Revenues of Ottoman Empire and Republic of Turkey. See also Ottoman Turkish Empire Revenue Stamps of the Hejaz Railway by Steve Jaques, Troy, 2009, pp.22 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Westport* (WPT : TSX : $39.13)
Westport* (WPRT : NASDAQ : US$39.04)

August 7

Shares of Westport Innovations jumped after the company reported their Q2/12 results. For the quarter, the
company reported consolidated revenues of $106.1 million compared with $44.9 million for the same period last year, an
increase of 136.3%.

Earnings were reported at a net loss of $6.1 million ($0.11 loss per share) compared with a net loss of $18.1
million ($0.38 loss per share) for the same period last year.

Breaking down its segments, WPT reported Westport Light-Duty (LD) revenue, which where up 182.2% to $30.7 million, Cummins Westport (CWI) revenue jumped 78.5% to $57.0 million with 1972 engines shipped, and Westport Heavy-Duty (HD) revenue was up 111.3% to $4.3 million with 75 systems shipped.

Service and other revenue was reported at $14.1 million.

CEO David Demers commented, “Key segments of the transport market have begun the inevitable shift from petroleum based fuel to engines powered by cleaner burning, low cost methane (natural gas), and Westport has a substantial presence in each market.” Demers also noted, “We are seeing strong growth in all segments and in all of our global markets, and despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, we expect this to accelerate as new infrastructure comes on stream over the next two years and as we launch new products, opening up significant new
addressable markets.”

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by jackbassteam on August 7, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Clean Energy, Detroit, Energy, LNG, Natural Gas, Natural gas vehicles
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on August 7, 2012

http://amp2012.com/2012/08/07/westport-innovations-update-2/

Progressive – discount insurer gets aggressive

Flo (Progressive Insurance)

Flo (Progressive Insurance) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Ok I like their adds – the settting seems to be like the foyer to Heaven

Progressive (PGR : NYSE : US$20.55)

Free Trial   – Tech device that measures your driving habits

In hopes of enticing more drivers to switch to Progressive, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based insurer announced Monday for the first time that it is offering a “try-before-you-buy” option for its Snapshot program. The computer-mouse sized Snapshot device, which is plugged into a port into any car made after 1996, tracks the driver’s speed, braking, and distance.

 The program is uses motorists’ real-time driving behaviour and lets Progressive know whether drivers are eligible for any discounts. While previously, customers were required to be signed to Progressive in order to be eligible, non-customers are now open to try Snapshot before deciding whether to make the switch.

The insurer notes that highest-risk driving behaviour accounts for over 2.5 times the costs of drivers with the lowest-risk behaviour – suggesting that the scope of ranging insurance rates is wider than what is currently being offered. The company boasts that seven out of ten drivers who try Snapshot are qualified for a discount, which can be as high as 30%.

“The consumer was right all along,” said Glenn Renwick, Progressive’s President and CEO. “For most, the rates they’re paying are higher than the risk they actually present – and in many cases, much higher. Until now, insurers had no effective way to capture actual driving behaviour and factor that into the rates they could offer. But we have made a meaningful start toward personalized insurance pricing that’s based on measuring real-time driving behaviour – the statistics of one.” The tracker has backing from environmentalists looking to reduce accident costs and fuel consumption, but some consumers fear that as trackers become the norm from the highly aggressive auto-insurance industry, companies may usethe technology to raise rates instead.

 I predict -  or suggest - Geigo offer free little green pets to fight this battle.

 

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by jackbassteam on July 10, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Berkshire Hathaway
Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on July 10, 2012

http://amp2012.com/2012/07/10/progressive-discount-insurer-gets-aggressive/

U.S. Car and Truck Ratings – Ford Has Some Traction

Rankings: New Cars

from U.S. News and World Report

Hybrid Cars

Ford Fusion Hybrid2012 Ford Fusion Hybrid

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by jackbassteam on July 1, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Economic Recovery, Energy, Oil

Posted by jackbassteam on July 1, 2012

http://amp2012.com/2012/07/01/u-s-car-and-truck-ratings-ford-has-some/

Westport Innovations – Volvo Update On A Motley Crew Stumble : Improving

Volvo Cars logo

Volvo Cars logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Westport* (WPRT : NASDAQ : US$26.58)

 May 22, 2012

Westport Innovations was in high gear, posting double-digit gains on news the global leader in natural gas engines, Volvo Trucks, unveiled its plans to launch a 13-litre heavy-duty natural gas engine featuring Westport’s high pressure direct injection (HPDI) technology. The product is scheduled to launch for the North American market in 2014. Under the terms of the agreement, Westport will lead the program, but each partner will contribute significant resources and pay for its own people and costs of the program.

When the product is launched, Westport said it will supply its HD system components for an agreed upon amount per engine, comparable to other such arrangements previously announced. “The partnership with the Volvo Group is an important product development program and will help meet the increasing demand for natural gas engines and vehicles in the heavy-duty market.” said David Demers, CEO of Westport Innovations.

As the price of gasoline at the pump continues to creep upward, more and more investors are beginning to pay attention to Westport Innovations, as they appear to be the only pure-play game in town when it comes to a legitimate transportation fuel alternative. Earlier this month the company reported Q1 results which highlighted by significant volume strength from CWI (1,900+) and   (151) shipments which drove Q1 revenues, while LD awaits the ramp of the Ford Motors (F)  wing later in 2012.

Management also reiterated that it remains committed to aggressively launching new products/markets, like the aforementioned 12L, driving near-term operating expenses higher. However we are neutral on the stock as the rapid pace of new product line introductions and volume growth necessitates accelerated investment and 12L launch tempers near-term margins.

 

 

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by jackbassteam on May 22, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Energy, Natural Gas, Natural gas vehicles
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on May 22, 2012

http://amp2012.com/2012/05/22/westport-innovations-volvo-update-on-a-motley-crew-stumble-improving/

Westport Innovations : Motley Crew Pick Stumbles

Ford Escape PHEV photographed in New York City...

Ford Escape PHEV photographed in New York City, USA. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

May 14

Westport* (WPT : TSX : $25.44)

Westport* (WPRT : NASDAQ : US$25.43)

Trying to be ahead of the curve on this stock has been costly.Don’t try to guess where the market is heading – wait to see better results.

Motley Crew uses Westport as a top pick ( at a much higher price ) – as the ” future of transportation . Unfortunately, the company has only been able to ramp up this last year and that propelled it to less than 6000 units – a long , long way from a market leader. Regardless of American truckers wanting to switch to natural gas the lack of infrastructure deters many in the long haul business.

Last week, Westport reported Q1 revenues/GAAP EPS of $88.6 million/$(0.44)).

Overall, estimates were driven by relative outperformance by Cummins Westport (CWI) (~$13 million product revenue), with Heavy (HD) and Light Duty (LD) both relatively in line with expectations. Gross margin declined 720bps sequentially, reflecting the absence of milestone service payments under the Volvo development agreement (next expected in June quarter), product mix and increased warranty expense associated with the roll-out of newer engine models. CWI and HD shipment strength were a highlight in the quarter, while LD stands to benefit in 2012 from the Ford Motor (F)  Wing launch and a full contribution from Emer.

Management reiterated top-line 2012 guidance of $400-425 million, representing 50%+ Y/Y top line growth. The Y/Y revenue improvement is expected to be supported by organic growth across all three operating segments.

 Additional expectations:

 i) Westport LD gross margin in the mid 20%

 

range;

 ii) CWI (Medium Duty) gross margin 30-35%;

iii) Westport HD margins expected to gradually ramp from break even

 

levels, long-term target of 20-30% (favouring higher end of the range); and

 iv) ~$5 million in Ford Wing sales in 2012 (500 units at ~$10,000 ASP), Q2/12 launch.

 Volatility likely stays elevated for WPT in the near term. Two upcoming potential WPT catalysts in May:

i) Alternative Clean Transportation Expo (May 15-17 in Long Beach); and

 ii) WPT Investor Day – May 24 in New York City.

 

 

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by jackbassteam on May 14, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Energy, Natural gas vehicles, Tech stocks
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on May 14, 2012

http://amp2012.com/2012/05/14/westport-innovations-motley-crew-pick-stumbles/

G.M Forecasts Europe Sales / Problems

English: Logo of General Motors Corporation. S...

Image via Wikipedia

General Motors (GM ): NYSE : US$25.57

General Motors sees sales and pricing “clearly deteriorating” in Europe according to analysts who met with management last week.

CFO Dan Ammann and Treasurer James Davlin hosted the meeting with a group of analyst, with one stating that Europe’s vehicle pricing has “worsened significantly: over the past few months.

The analyst went on to say, “GM appears to expect a more substantial industry volume decline during this cycle…(the automaker) expects more substantial capacity reductions and by a broader group of automakers.”

 Auto executives have a forecast that deliveries in Europe will fall by roughly 5% this year, the fifth consecutive year of decline. Last year, GM lost $747 million in Europe and earlier this month said it will be announcing a restructuring plan in the region.

Analysts speculate that GM will have to spend as much as $1 billion to revive its European operations. The analyst reports come shortly after GM announced a plan to pay $420 million for 7% of PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe’s second largest automaker, a deal which was met with sceptism from analysts and investors. GM executives were unavailable to comment.

BOTH The E-book Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio

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Twitter   jack25bc

 

 

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by jackbassteam on March 19, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in AMP, AMP Book, Automobile, Detroit, euro, Europe
Tagged , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on March 19, 2012

http://amp2012.com/2012/03/19/g-m-forecasts-europe-sales-problems/

General Motors – or is that Government Motors ?

General Motors automobile mural

General Motors automobile mural (Photo credit: Toban Black)

Q;Will the bailouts be repaid  - right  now repayment rests on sales of government stock  portfolios.

Will GM return to full throttle ?

THESIS: GM has managed to find the light at the end of the tunnel.

J.D. Power confirmed that Detroit is gaining ground on its foreign rivals in terms of vehicle dependability. Today, there’s more good news for fans of the Big Three: General Motors (GM) has announced stunning financial results from 2011, marking the first time in years that Chrysler, Ford (F), and GM have all been profitable at the same time.

Now that 2011′s beans have been counted, GM says it brought in $150.3 billion over the course of calendar year — an 11% increase over 2010. After bills were paid, GM was left with $7.6 billion in net revenue, up from $4.7 billion last year.

GM’s strongest performance was in North America, where the company recorded earnings before interest and taxes of $7.2 billion. Also faring well: GM’s International Operations division, which includes the booming Chinese market. There, the company reported an EBIT-adjusted gain of $1.9 billion. Not surprisingly, financially volatile Europe was GM’s weak spot, generating an EBIT-adjusted loss of $0.7 billion.

GM’s success is attributable to a number of factors — not least of which are (a) spinning off and shuttering four brands to focus on core products, and (b) working hard to gain a foothold in China and other emerging markets. Ford has taken a similar approach, and it recently released itsbest earnings report since 1998.

Even Chrysler, which has added two brands to its family since its 2009 bankruptcy, posted a profit for 2011 – its first since 2005.

This marks the first time since 2004 that all three Detroit companies have been in the black.

www.jackbassteam.com

http://www.youtube/watch?v=4hb4vG07Zt4&feature=youtu.be&t=55s

Twitter @jack25bc

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by jackbassteam on February 19, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in AMP, Automobile, Detroit, General Motors, Investments, stocks
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on February 19, 2012

http://amp2012.com/2012/02/19/general-motors-or-is-that-government-motors/

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