American Eagle Energy BUY Target Price $6 Next Spring Not Today

Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.

 

AMZG : NYSE MKT : US$1.33
BUY 
Target: US$6.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
AMZG is an independent E&P company focused on
developing the Bakken and Three Forks shale oil
formations in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and
Montana. The company is based in Denver, CO.

Energy — Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production
CONSERVATIVE YET FLEXIBLE PLAN FOR ’15
Investment recommendation
We like AMZG for its inventory of relatively low-risk, high return Bakken
and Three Forks (TF) locations in the Williston Basin (WB). The
company has ~46.8K net acres in Divide County, ND, and while IP rates
and EURs are not as high as in deeper parts of the WB, lower costs
provide attractive rates of return. With new financing in place and the
stock getting essentially no credit for its undeveloped acreage at its
current price, we believe AMZG offers promising risk/reward.
Investment highlights
 AMZG laid out what we believe to be a prudent base-case 2015
capital plan, in which it intends to run one rig starting at the end of
Q1/15 and keep it going for the rest of the year. That would yield 10
net wells and equate to ~$60M in capex. At that pace of
development, the company would be able to grow production as
2015 progresses; we estimate ~3.1 MBoe/d (47% growth) for 2015.
The company said it would think about scaling up activity at a ~$90
WTI oil price and could bring on a second rig quite quickly.
 Following the positive results from the Eli well (405 Boe/d 30-day
IP), AMZG intends to use slickwater fracs for the Byron and Shelley
Lynn wells. Those wells are scheduled to be fracked in November.
The company estimates it will bring on 4 gross (3.7 net) operated
wells by the end of 2014. It could possibly add 2 additional gross
(1.3 net) wells if the Shelly and La Plata State are online in time.
 Liquidity of $84M at the end of Q3 should be more than sufficient to
fund the $60M capex program.
Valuation
Our new $6 price target represents a 30% discount to a ~$8.40 NAV

Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.

One such stock that you may want to consider dropping is American Eagle Energy Corporation(AMZG), which has witnessed a significant price decline in the past four weeks, and it has seen negative earnings estimate revisions for the current quarter and the current year. A Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) further confirms weakness in AMZG.

A key reason for this move has been the negative trend in earnings estimate trend. Although for the full year, we have not seen any estimates moving down or up in the past 60 days, the consensus estimate has moved lower, going from 25 cents a share a month ago to its current level of 21 cents.

Also, for the current quarter, American Eagle Energy has seen 1 downward estimate revision versus no revision in the opposite direction, dragging the consensus estimate down to 4 cents a share from 6 cents over the past 60 days.

Whiting Petroleum

WLL : NYSE : US$83.53
BUY 
Target: US$108.00
COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Whiting Petroleum engages in the acquisition,
development, exploitation, exploration, and production of
oil and gas properties. The company primarily focuses in
the Permian Basin, Rocky Mountains, Mid-Continent, Gulf
Coast, and Michigan regions of the United States.

Energy — Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production
POISED TO UNLOCK EVEN MORE OF THE WB & NIOBRARA; INITIATE BUY
Investment recommendation
We believe WLL has substantial upside given its ~845K net acres (pro
forma) in the core of the Williston Basin (WB), which can be further
exploited via downspacing and enhanced completion techniques. The
pending acquisition of KOG bolsters its inventory in the core of the WB.
Strong production growth in the Niobrara excites us as well. WLL trades
at a discount to its peers that we consider unwarranted. In our view,
continued solid execution will result in a narrowing of the valuation gap.
Thus, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating and $108 target.
Investment highlights
 WLL is testing enhanced completion techniques in its latest
Bakken/Three Forks (TF) wells; if successful, we believe they can
add meaningful upside to EURs and rates of return. Additional tests
of slickwater fracs and coiled tubing completions are planned for
this year. Cemented liner/plug & perf completions have already
yielded a 23% improvement in EURs at little incremental cost.
 The pending acquisition of KOG would enhance WLL’s inventory in
some of the best areas of the WB. The combined entity would have
>3,400 net future drilling locations. WLL plans to up the rig count to
26 by the end of 2015. It also intends to lower KOG’s average well
costs to $8.5M from $9.2M, which we consider very achievable. The
deal should be accretive on all relevant metrics starting next year.
 We foresee rapid production growth in the Niobrara (~2.5x y/y
growth in 2015E). At its Redtail acreage, it is testing tighter spacing
in the B bench and also wells in the C bench; results from its 32-
well Horsetail Pad should come in January. Success there could
double its Redtail inventory to ~3,300 net locations from ~1,650.
 The company should have ample liquidity to fund continued drilling
efforts in the WB and Niobrara. Even with the assumption of KOG’s
~$2.3B of debt, the balance sheet remains in solid shape.
Valuation
Our $108 price target represents a 10% discount to a ~$120 NAV

Build Your Portfolio On A Solid Foundation : All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic:

Building Your Apprentice

Millionaire Portfolio

 All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

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All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic:

Building Your Apprentice

Millionaire Portfolio

 

 All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Price: $28.95 & this item ships for FREE with Super Saver Shipping

All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Price: $28.95 & this item ships for FREE with Super Saver Shipping

The Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your

Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio :

All you need to succeed in today’s stock

market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

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Step Up Your Game – All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your

Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio:

All you need to succeed in today’s stock

market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

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All You Need To Succeed – in 2013 – 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio :

All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

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The Hype About America’s Energy Boom

Oil Guru Destroys All Of The Hype About America’s Energy Boom

 

5/14

   

The gap between production and consumption is 9 million barrels of oil a day. “It is unlikely that the U.S. will become energy independent,” Berman argues.

The gap between production and consumption is 9 million barrels of oil a day.

Arthur Berman

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/arthur-berman-shale-is-magical-thinking-2013-1?op=1#ixzz2IXJjv61y

The Discilpline To Profit :All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections

The selections given are all guided by the AMP book.

I am puzzled how many readers expect to profit if they don’t know the  underlying strategy/ sector and individual selection criteria .

You cannot ” win” unless you know the rules of the game . Gambling that one selection will better your average is not a strategy at all.

I is notas difficult as brain surgery – you need a long term strategy and the selections that meet that strategy.

 

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your

Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio:

All you need to succeed in today’s stock

market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Price: $28.95 & this item ships for FREE with Super Saver Shipping
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