Bank Reporting Season Overview

Wells Fargo Stagecoach

Wells Fargo Stagecoach (Photo credit: Noel C. Hankamer)

JP Morgan Chase (JPM : NYSE : US$48.73)
Wells Fargo (WFC : NYSE : US$37.48)
TD Bank* (TD : TSX : $81.05),
Royal Bank of Canada* (RY : TSX : $60.11)
Bank of Montreal* (BMO : TSX : $62.59)
U.S. bank Q1/13 reporting season commences this Friday with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.
Similar to prior quarters, Canaccord  Analyst Mario Mendonca says pay close attention to credit trends, trading results, commercial & industrial (C&I) loan growth and net interest margins. Q4/12 was the ninth consecutive quarter we saw an increase in U.S. C&I loans since the crisis. Weekly data from the Federal Reserve Board suggests that U.S. C&I loans at the large domestic banks grew 1.3% QoQ in Q1/13.

Last quarter, the U.S. credit picture remained strong despite macroeconomic concerns. In Q4/12 for the 11 U.S. banks Mendonca tracks, total PCLs were US$9.1 billion, down from US$9.3 billion in Q3/12. PCLs decreased in the quarter largely due to higher reserve releases by JPM, mostly offset by lower releases at Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC). Net charge-offs, non-performing loans, delinquency trends and management
commentary all continue to suggest that credit losses will decline in the U.S. JPM and WFC’s results on April 12 will provide the first look into C&I loan growth from the U.S. banks this quarter.

Strong U.S. C&I loan growth bodes well for TD and Bank of Montreal particularly. JPM’s results will also provide the first indication of the sustainability of the trading environment.
While calling Royal Bank’s trading quarter by referencing the U.S. results has not worked consistently, Mendonca believes it is appropriate to look to the U.S. investment banks for broad trends.

Bank of Nova Scotia

English: View of a ScotiaBank facade in Amhers...

English: View of a ScotiaBank facade in Amherst, Nova Scotia. This structure was erected in 1907. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

BNS : TSX : C$61.32
BNS : NYSE
BUY 
Target: C$69.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Scotiabank is one of North America’s premier financial institutions, and Canada’s most international bank. With over 80,000 employees, Scotiabank Group and its affiliates serve over 19 million customers in more than 55 countries around the world. Scotiabank offers a diverse range of products and services including personal, commercial, corporate and investment banking.

Q1/13 core cash EPS was $1.27 (up 12% YoY) versus our estimate and consensus of $1.25. Revenue growth was better than expected, and PCLs came in lower than forecasted. The bank raised the quarterly dividend to $0.60 (5% QoQ and 9% YoY), higher than our estimate of $0.59.
International earnings were up 12% YoY, reflecting very strong operating leverage. Expense growth checked back to 15.5% YoY (0% QoQ) from the very high levels seen in 2012 (21% in full year 2012), resulting in operating leverage of 5.5%. Management indicated that the YoY increase in expenses largely related to acquisitions.

While we do not expect the bank to deliver mid-single-digit operating leverage in International, given the investment spending in 2012, we
do expect BNS to deliver 2-3% operating leverage in the segment in 2013. Importantly, commercial loan growth recovered after two consecutive quarters of disappointing QoQ growth.
Domestic P&C earnings were up 21% YoY on 13.3% YoY revenue growth and operating leverage of 1.2% (expense growth of 12.1% YoY). We were looking for earnings growth of 19%. Better than expected results relate to the ING Direct deal which added $45 million to earnings versus our estimate of $35-40 million. As Scotia functions with a significant funding gap in Canada, to the extent that the bank uses the lower cost retail deposits from ING to replace wholesale funding, the bank can quickly improve funding costs. At $45 million in earnings in the quarter, the bank is already near the $190 million run rate discussed at the time of the deal.
Over the last five years, the bank’s better earnings stability and momentum has earned Scotia an average premium of 5-7%. On our estimates, the stock currently trades at a 6% premium to the group. For the reasons outlined below, we set our target price on BNS based on the stock trading at a 7% premium (versus RY at a 6% premium). Our target P/E premium drives a target P/E of 12.3x applied against our 2014E EPS and a target price of C$69.00 (up from C$67.00).

Canadian Banks Forecast

The newly merged CIBC commissioned a new logo ...

The newly merged CIBC commissioned a new logo to commemorate its 100th year of operation. The “chevron” logo was in use until 1994 CIBC Logos and Seals (company website) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bank of Montreal* (BMO : TSX : $63.32)
Bank of Nova Scotia* (BNS : TSX : $60.01)
CIBC* (CM : TSX : $84.70)
National Bank of Canada (NA : TSX : $79.08 )
Royal Bank of Canada* (RY : TSX : $64.49)
TD Bank* (TD : TSX : $84.28),
Who Will Be The Class of 2013? Canada‟s six large banks report Q1/13 results from February 26 to March 5.

Canaccord forecasts industry EPS growth coming in at 6.0% year-over-year (YoY), well below last quarter‟s 19.0% YoY EPS growth. Double-digit EPS growth last quarter largely reflected very easy YoY trading revenue comparables, unsustainably low PCLs (provision for credit losses), high AFS (available-for-sale) gains and lower tax rates.

Expect EPS growth to return to the mid-single digits in 2013. Mid-single digit earnings growth in 2013 largely reflects the effects of slowing loan growth and more difficult YoY comparisons (particularly on trading).

Mendonca’s forecasted 6.0% YoY EPS growth reflects 5.0% revenue growth, 1.8% operating leverage and a 14.0% increase in PCLs.

Solid upside in the Canadian banks over the next 12-18 months, of the big six, RY, TD and BNS should deliver
superior earnings growth. For the most part, the stronger growth relates to Mendonca’s key stock selection themes, namely
capacity to grow loans above the group average through their non-domestic operations and willingness to control expense
growth. On Tuesday, February 26 things get going with BMO. CM, RY, TD and NA report on Thursday, February 28. BNS will
be the last to report on Tuesday, March 5. BNS is Mendonca’s most favoured name.

Laurentian Bank of Canada

Laurentian Bank of Canada branch located on th...

Laurentian Bank of Canada branch located on the corner of Saint Catherine Street and Saint Timothée, in the Gay Village, Montreal. Succursale de la Banque Laurentienne du Canada situé au coin des rues Sainte-Catherine et Saint-Thimothé dans le Village Gay à Montréal. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Laurentian Bank of Canada 
LB : TSX : C$44.74
BUY  Target: C$54.25

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB : TSX) is a banking institution operating across Canada and offering its clients diversified financial services. The bank serves individual consumers, SME’s, and a wide network of independent financial intermediaries through B2B Trust, as well as full-service brokerage solutions through Laurentian Bank Securities. With more than $30 billion in assets, LB operates approximately 158 bank branches.

Investment recommendation
LB is scheduled to report Q4/F12 results on December 5, 2012 and hold a conference call at 2:00 PM ET. The dial-in number(s) is 416-340-2217 or 1- 866-696-5910 (access code: 1404266). We maintain our BUY rating and C$54.25/share target price.
Investment highlights
 First quarter to include AGF Trust. For Q4/F12, we are forecasting adj. cash EPS of $1.30 (vs. consensus at $1.30), implying growth of 2.4% QoQ (3.2% YoY). This will be the first quarter to include the $247 million  AGF Trust acquisition, which closed on August 1. Of note, we expect the
efficiency ratio (excluding T&I costs) to show an improvement of 570 bps QoQ to 71.1%.
NIM and loan expectations. We estimate a moderate 2 bps QoQ expansion in NIM to 1.68% due to AGF Trust’s higher NIM portfolio and lower liquidity levels, partially offset by retail segment competition and the low interest rate environment. Turning to loans, we estimate average loan growth of 15.0% QoQ (and 20.9% YoY) to $26.1 billion, largely reflecting the inclusion of AGF Trust assets (i.e., ~$3.1 billion in
loans).
 Expect a modest dividend increase. For Q4/F12, we are expecting a modest quarterly dividend increase of $0.02 to $0.49 (+4.3% vs. +4.4%
in Q2/F12), which would imply a dividend yield of 4.4% (in-line with the Big-6 bank average of 4.4%). This would imply a payout ratio of 38.7%
and below management’s targeted payout range of 40-50%.  Stock oversold; relative valuation attractive. QTD, LB stock is down 3.3% and trails the TSX Bank Index at 0.7%. In our view, the current valuation of 8.2x P/E (NTM), a 19% discount the five-year average, does not reflect LB’s: (1) strong capital position, (2) capacity to manage expenses and drive operating leverage, and (3) integration of acquired businesses (i.e., MRS Trust and AGF Trust).

Valuation

Our 12-month C$54.25/share target price is based on a 10.1x P/E multiple applied to our F2013E EPS FD. We apply a 12.5% discount to the F2013E bank group P/E multiple of 11.5x that CG uses to value the larger Canadian banks.

Bankrate Target $ 16

Image representing Bankrate as depicted in Cru...

Image via CrunchBase

Nov. 14

 

Bankrate

RATE : NYSE : US$10.26
BUY Target: US$16.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Bankrate is the leading online personal finance site on the web. The company boasts providing coverage on nearly 600 local markets in all 50 US states and generating 172,000 rate tables capturing over three million pieces of information daily. The company distributes its content and rate information through three main channels: the company’s owned and operated websites, online co-brands, and print partners.

Investor meeting with Bankrate CFO Ed DiMaria in New York – the tone of questions and commentary to be constructive. Management remains cautiously optimistic about the future while recognizing near-term challenges. We continue to believe that while the near term holds palpable uncertainty, the medium- to long-term possibility of an upside scenario around insurance and credit cards makes the risk/reward interesting at current levels.
Key Points
 We believe the company is seeing some signs of improvement in credit cards, with some renewed activity from issuers that have not been spending recently. We believe Credit Card CPA revenue may grow sequentially in Q4.
 We believe Insurance CPL will likely shrink sequentially in Q4. Management believes that is likely to be the bottom, although the business may not return to y/y growth until the second half of 2013.
Valuation
Our price target remains $16 and is based on 20x our unchanged 2013 EPS estimate of $0.82.

Euro Banks Downgraded ( yes , again )

2010 BNP Paribas Masters

2010 BNP Paribas Masters (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Oct 26

A Very Bad Way to Save European Banks: Sell Shares to Depositors

by Mark Gimein

Standard & Poor’s cut the rating of BNP Paribas SA and issued a negative outlook for other French banks, including Credit Agricole SA and Societe Generale SA. Shares of French banks fell. On top of the ongoing eurozone crisisand recession, S&P said that French banks face a “potentially limited, but still noteworthy, impact from an ongoing correction in the housing market.”That’s awfully careful phrasing. It does seem to invite a question: if that impact is “potentially” limited, could it also be potentially not-so-limited? The recent history of European banking downgrades gives some reason to think so. In other cases, ratings agencies have been behind the curve on bank losses.

S&P downgraded Spanish banks in October, 2011, again in April/May 2012, and yet again this month . This is the kind of cycle of downgrades that’s the sign of a ratings agency that’s not so much forecasting the economic climate as it is trying to keep up with the bad news. 

And on the subject of Spanish banks: When Spain’s Banco Popular Espanol SA announced plans for a sale of 2.5 billion shares in new sales to prop up its capital, The Market Now expressed a hope that Popular was not planning to sell those shares to its retail customers, as Bankia SA did.

That wasn’t meant as a totally serious point. The Market Now assumed that after shares Bankia SA sold to its small account holders collapsed, nobody in Spain would stand for anything similar happening again. Well, that was wrong.

Banco Popular is now planning to sell 60 percent of its new shares to ordinary depositors . If you think it’s a great idea for Spanish pensioners to take money out of their savings accounts and invest in European bank stocks, go ahead and raise your hand now. 

Click here for  much more detail on the ins and outs of investing in gold.

Royal Bank of Canada – Profit Jumps

Royal Bank of Canada's previous logo (the crow...

Royal Bank of Canada’s previous logo (the crown was removed). (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

August 31

Royal Bank of Canada  (RY : TSX : $54.97)

Royal Bank of Canada, the country’s largest lender by assets boosted its dividend Thursday amid a big jump in profit, the latest move from within a booming banking industry north of the border that’s been spinning off cash to  investors.

RY reported adjusted cash EPS of $1.31, up 18% over last year and solidly ahead of the consensus of $1.18. The beat was related to much better than expected trading revenue (partially offset by higher expenses – mainly performance based comp) and a lower than expected tax rate. Specifically, Q3/12 revenue beat expectations by $232 million, driven by higher than expected capital markets revenue (trading, underwriting/advisory higher than expected).

Other revenue, particularly credit fees, were also higher than expected. Operating leverage was 1.9% (very solid result) and in line with analyst estimates. The Basel 3 ratio is 8.3% proforma, meaning the company has plenty of excess capital. Alongside the large EPS beat, the bank unexpected raised quarterly dividend 5% to $0.60 from $0.57.

A Bay Street analyst notes that the stock continues to hit his key themes:commercial loan growth, strong deposit franchise, capacity to control costs in domestic retail (definitely saw that this quarter), dividend increases, excess capital.

 

 

DEUTSCHE BANK: These Are The Best Stocks You Can Buy Right Now

August 21

CBS Corp

CBS Corp

YouTube.com

Ticker: CBS

Target Price: $40

Debt/Mkt Cap: 23%

’13 EPS Growth: 12%

CBS operates as a mass media company internationally. It was founded in 1986 in New York, New York.

Source: Deutsche Bank

News Corp

Ticker: NWSA

Target Price: $26

Debt/Mkt Cap: 18%

’13 EPS Growth: 17%

News Corporation is a diversified media company that operates worldwide and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Source: Deutsche Bank

Omnicom Group

Omnicom Group

Omnicom Group

Ticker: OMC

Target Price: $52

Debt/Mkt Cap: 18%

’13 EPS Growth: 12%

Omnicom Group provides advertising, marketing, and corporate communications services internationally. The company is based in New York, New York and was founded in 1944.

Walt Disney Co.

Walt Disney Co.

 

Walt Disney Co.

Ticker: DIS

Target Price: $56

Debt/Mkt Cap: 12%

’13 EPS Growth: 14%

Walt Disney operates as an entertainment company worldwide. It was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California

Baker Hughes

Ticker: BHI

Target Price: $79

Debt/Mkt Cap: 20%

’13 EPS Growth: 27%

Baker Hughes supplies oilfield services and systems to the oil and natural gas industry worldwide. It was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Cameron International

Ticker: CAM

Target Price: $73

Debt/Mkt Cap: 6%

’13 EPS Growth: 45%

Cameron International provides flow equipment products and services worldwide. It was founded in 1833 and is based in Houston, Texas

Halliburton

Halliburton

Ticker: HAL

Target Price: $56

Debt/Mkt Cap: 8%

’13 EPS Growth: 21%

Halliburton provides various products and services to the energy industry. It was founded in 1919 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Source: Deutsche Bank

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs

Workers stay late at Goldman Sachs in NYC.

flickr/dandeluca

Ticker: GS

Target Price: $135

Debt/Mkt Cap: 338%

’13 EPS Growth: 19%

Goldman Sachs provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services worldwide. It was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Baxter International

Baxter International

Baxter

Ticker: BAX

Target Price: $63

Debt/Mkt Cap: 9%

’13 EPS Growth: 7%

Baxter International develops, manufactures, and markets products for people with various medical conditions. It was founded in 1931 and is based in Deerfield, Illinois.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-30-stocks-buy-now-2012-8?op=1#ixzz24F7kGT9p

Has Warren Buffett A New Target ? ( Forbes )

August 15
or is he getting ready to Pass The Torch ?
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 05:  Warren Buffett, cha...Buffett cut long-held holdings of J&J, P&G and Kraft Foods. Why? (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

Berkshire Hathaway took the ax to some of the longest-held names in its stock portfolio last quarter, sparking questions over just how much sway Warren Buffett is sharing with his recently-installed investing colleagues.

to help manage a chunk of the firm’s approximately $75 billion equity portfolio. Both managers were expected to start small and gradually manage more and more of the company’s holdings until ultimately taking over whenever Buffett steps down.

An SEC filing Tuesday detailing Berkshire’s portfolio at the close of the second quarter revealed significant cuts to holdings in Johnson & JohnsonProcter & Gamble and Kraft Foods, all stalwarts of Buffett’s portfolio.

Deal Journal’s Erik Holm says the cuts may represent a changing of the guard to some small degree, with Buffett sharing more investing responsibility with his younger colleagues:

The moves, disclosed in a regulatory filing Tuesday, reveal an uncommonly active quarter for Berkshire leader Warren Buffett and Berkshire’s new portfolio managersTodd Combs and Ted Weschler.…

Tom Russo, a longtime Berkshire shareholder who manages more than $5 billion as a partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, theorized that Buffett was selling off the positions to allocate more capital to Combs and Weschler, who are expected to take on ever-larger slices of Berkshire’s investment portfolio in coming years.

The cuts were substantial, and did come from some of the biggest positions in the Berkshire portfolio: J&J, P&G and Kraft were three of 14 equity positions worth more than a billion dollars at the end of 2011. Positions of that size are assumed to be Buffett’s bailiwick, considering the Oracle of Omaha told  shareholders earlier this year that his two deputies each had their mandates raised by a billion dollars and manage about $2.75 billion.

At recent prices, and with the caveat that it is quite possible Berkshire’s positions have changed since June 30, Buffett holds $706 million worth of J&J, just under $4 billion in P&G and $2.4 billion in Kraft. Those positions were cut by two-thirds, a fifth and a quarter from March 31. But it is not a guarantee that the cash raised from paring those stakes found its way into the baskets of Combs and Weschler

While the logic makes sense, another longtime Berkshire shareholder, money manager and Forbes contributor Martin Sosnoff, thinks the portfolio reduction – the overall equity portfolio was trimmed to $74.3 billion from $75.3 billion — might mean Buffett is readying another big acquisition along the lines of his 2010 takeover of Burlington Northern Santa Fe.

Sosnoff, who manages $6 billion at Atalanta Sosnoff Capital writes that while Buffett may be conserving capital in the face of ”investment waters filled with riptides ,” he thinks there is just as good a chance the world’s third-richest man is readying for one last mega-play, another opportunity to step up to the plate when few others can or will. Remember, Buffett also stepped up with sorely-needed capital in 2008 for Goldman Sachs Group and General Electric — bets that paid off handsomely — and again in 2011 for Bank of America.

S&P Cuts Canadian Bank Ratings

English: TD Canada Trust Tower in Toronto

English: TD Canada Trust Tower in Toronto (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

July 28

Standard & Poor’s has cut its outlook to “negative” from “stable” on seven major Canadian financial institutions including Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Nova Scotia, attributing the change to soaring consumer debt levels and the increasingly fragile global economy.

“A prolonged run-up in housing prices and consumer indebtedness is… contributing to growing imbalances and Canada’s vulnerability to the generally weak global economy, applying negative pressure on economic risk for banks,” the ratings giant said.

The others involved in the revision include National Bank of Canada, the credit union system for Ontario and British Columbia known as Central 1 Credit Union, Laurentian Bank of Canada and Home Capital Group Inc.

&P said in a statement after markets closed on Friday that the revised outlook recognizes the potential impact of a deteriorating economy on banks’ financial performance as well as capitalization.

Policy makers have issued repeated warnings in the last several years about the perilous state of Canadian household finances yet debt levels have continued to swell, primarily as a result of spending on residential mortgages.

While the domestic economy continues to grow and interest rates remain close to record low levels, most consumers can meet their debt obligations but as Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has pointed out, the high debt levels leave consumers — and the economy as a whole — vulnerable to shocks such a rise in interest rates or unemployment.

A lowered outlook does not necessarily result in a lowered debt rating but it does increase the probability of a downgrade.

The rating agency noted that Canadian lenders benefit from insurance provided by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., a Crown corp that is covering default risk of nearly $600-billion of outstanding mortgage debt, more than half of the total.

“In our view, Canadian banks’ risk tolerances and risk management capabilities are generally strong and attuned to risks inherent in the Canadian consumer and housing sectors. Even so, we believe there is currently growing potential for deterioration of Canadian bank credit profiles associated with scenarios incorporating consumer sector stress.”

 

I’m Shocked, SHOCKED To Find There’s Gambling Going On In Here!

Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds?

Captain Renault: I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!

– From the classic scene in Casablanca,made in 1942

The latest scandal du jour seems to be about what is now called LIBORgate. But is it a scandal or is it really just business as usual?

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,180 other followers