Get Out Of Natural Gas and Oil Stocks – worse to come – Updated Dec.25

In this Dec. 17, 2014 photo, workers tend to oil pump jacks behind a natural gas flare near Watford City, N.D. Natural gas, the nation's most prevalent heating fuel, is getting cheaper just as winter is arriving because of mild temperatures and plentiful supplies. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Natural gas, the nation’s most prevalent heating fuel, is getting cheaper just as winter is arriving because of mild temperatures and plentiful supplies.

The price of natural gas has dropped 29 percent in a month, to $3.17 per 1,000 cubic feet on Tuesday from nearly $4.50 in late November. That’s a steep drop even for a fuel notorious for volatile price swings.

The lower prices are expected to linger and could reduce electricity prices and heating bills in the coming months. Natural gas is used by half of the nation’s households for heating and to generate 26 percent of the nation’s electricity.

Natural gas often rises as winter weather approaches, and a frigid November sent the price higher. But December warmed up, and temperatures for the rest of the winter are expected to be close to normal.

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Oil falls, near $60 on supply glut, strong dollar

A customer waits as an employee of state-owned Pertamina refuels his car at its petrol station in Jakarta

In 2013 and 2014 a theme of my speeches to investors has been the problems facing exploration and production companies in natural gas . Then I projected that companies unprofitable at $4.00 would be in difficulty – today it is a crisis – expect bankruptcies and mergers to be the story in 2015..

Natural gas futures slid in New York  Thursday Dec.24 -to the lowest level since September 2012 after a government report showed U.S. inventories fell last week by less than forecast.

The Energy Information Administration said stockpiles dropped 49 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 19 to 3.246 trillion. Analysts estimated a decline of 63 billion while a survey of Bloomberg users predicted a withdrawal of 59 billion.

“It’s so small because it was warm,” said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston. “We expected some power generators to switch more to natural gas because of lower prices, but we didn’t see that. Meanwhile, the market continues to be flooded by production.”

Brent oil fell on Wednesday ( Dec .23), trading around $60 per barrel weighed down by strong supply in the United States and a rising dollar.

Brent for February delivery was down $1.50 to $60.19 at 1327 GMT after gaining $1.58 on Tuesday. It hit a low of $59.93 earlier in the session.

U.S. crude was down $1.17 to $55.95 a barrel, after closing $1.86 higher in the previous session.

Trade was thin as many in the European and U.S. market were off for the Christmas break.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, showed U.S. crude stocks rose by 5.4 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 19. Analysts had expected a drop of 2.3 million barrels.

In Europe, gasoline stocks reached their highest in five months in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp oil hub, data from PJK International showed.

A supply glut in the United States and elsewhere has helped push oil down some 46 percent since it reached this year’s peak above $115 per barrel in June.

“There was a large build in the API data and there are high stocks for now, although strong U.S. GDP growth should help demand,” said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland.

The dollar index stayed close to its highest since April 2006 after a revised third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product report surprised with the fastest growth in 11 years.

A strong dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Now investors face more volatile markets and securities that no longer move in lock-step. At the same time, investors must cope withslower growth in China, minuscule growth in the euro area and negative growth in Japan.

Such widespread sluggish demand — along with ample supplies of oil and most everything else — is the reason commodity prices are falling. They have been since early 2011, but many people failed to notice until recently, when crude oil prices nosedived.

Normally, less demand and a supply glut would lead the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, beginning with Saudi Arabia, to cut production. As the de facto cartel leader, the Saudis would often reduce output to prevent supply increases from driving down prices.

Of course, this also cost the Saudis market share and encouraged cheating by OPEC members. Saudi leaders must grind their teeth over the last decade’s unchanged demand for OPEC oil, while all the global growth has been among non-OPEC suppliers, principally in North America.

The Fools In Chesapeake ( CHK)

Yesterday Chesapeake announced it would spend a billion dollars on stock buy backs – this is foolishness bordering on gross mismanagement – like the captain of the Titanic rearranging the deck chairs. Companies must husband their funds – the best will survive and cherry pick assets from corpses – to mix as many metaphors as I can.

No Glory for Prophets

My best call in 2014 was to reverse on Quicksilver ( KWK) and sell out at $ 2.50 – it is now down a further 90 % to pennies.Many more companies will follow – don’t hold on for a recovery. That sell call earned me the most email – all negative- for the year and no thanks from investors.

The millions of dollars – per well – now at work -have to complete their drilling and this will bring on additional natural gas supplies in the U.S. that in turn will pressure oil prices well into 2015. LNG exports from the U.S. ( starting in about 12 months by Cheniere at the gulf coast in the U.S. ( and projects in Australia) will pressure international prices and also depress oil.

Planned Australian LNG projects threatened by energy price crash

Woodside's Pluto LNG Loading jetty, Pluto LNG onshore gas plant.

Handout/ WoodsideWoodside’s Pluto LNG Loading jetty, Pluto LNG onshore gas plant.

Planned Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects, including the costly Scarborough floating vessel, are at risk as sinking energy prices make investments unviable, analysts said.

A nearly 50% slump in Asian LNG prices this year has pressured any project without a Final Investment Decision (FID). Just last week, Woodside Petroleum Ltd  delayed the FID for its US$40-billion Browse floating project with Royal Dutch Shell and BP.

The next cab off that rank could be ExxonMobil and BHP Billiton’s  US$10-billion Scarborough project.

Scarborough will be “commercially challenging” to justify given a raft of competing LNG projects, said Noel Tomnay, global gas and LNG research head at Wood Mackenzie.

“China’s growing pains as well as slugs of LNG coming into the market: that’s a fairly wicked combination. It would take a very brave soul to ignore the prevailing market.”
BHP and ExxonMobil were not available for comment.

The future for other Australian LNG projects without FID is also uncertain.

GDF Suez and Santos are seeking alternatives for their Bonaparte floating project, Woodside has indefinitely delayed its Sunrise project, while Shell has yet to commit to its Arrow project where it has cut hundreds of positions.

Coal Will Continue To Contract

Coal is going to be used for the next 50 years – but high sulphur mines will close and electrical generation will rely on cheap natural gas . Stay away from trying to pick the bottom in the sector.

You Have Options:

What To Do ?

Here is our recent letter:

Managed Accounts Year End Review and Forecast

November 2014 – 40 % cash position
Gold and Precious MetalsThe largest gains for our clients came from the exit from the gold producers at $18oo an ounce and continuing until we hold no gold and no gold miners . This from the author of The Gold Investors Handbook.2015 – We continue to be on the sidelines for this sector – regardless of the gnomes of Switzerland . As a safe haven gold simply wasnot there for investors despite turmoil in the Middle East, Africa and Ukraine.How much more frightening can the prospect for peace be than to have wars in multiple locations? Secondly the spectre of inflation – on which I have given numerous talks – simply failed to materialize. In fact economists and portfolio managers such as myself are now more concerned about deflation – and the spectre is a Japanese style decades long slide in the world economy.
Shipping Sector / Bulk ShippersYou can review our stock market letter athttp://www.amp2012.com to follow our profits in the shipping sector before our retreat as overcapacity has yet to effect continued overbuiding. In 2008-9 rates-  illustrated by the Baltic Dry Index – were at their peak. The BDI hit over 10,000. Today it is roughly 10 % of that benchmark and the sector slide continues. We have an impressive watchlist of former ” darlings” – but we are content to watch and wait.
Oil/ Energy I am very happy for the call in natural gas prices – out at $12 and into oil. When oil was above $100 we lessened positions and that is our saving grace in the past two weeks. We are not bottom feeders and will wait for a turn in the market before reentering drillers or producers.On Friday November 27th, crude oil prices dropped to below $72 and the slide has continued into the weekend, with Brent crude oil at $70.15 as I write this post. Shares of major oil companies traded down on Friday. Our former energy sector holdings are down another between 4% and 11%, including SDRL, which dropped another 8% following Wednesday’s 23% plunge…

Have you avoided these sectors – you would have been better off to follow our advice in 2014 and now you have to decide for 2015.
No one – and I am not being humble here – can project the future with great accuracy but our clients continue to do very well and we offer that experience to you.

Fees : 1 % annual set up and a performance bonus of 20 % – only if we perform.

You can withdraw your funds monthly if you require an income stream.

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Our client is seeking funds to expand their tanker fleet .

Interest 12 % compounded – paid 1% per month

Floating charge of the full $500,000 against the fleet – valued at  more than $ 1 M

 

Contact information:

To learn more about portfolio management ,asset protection, trusts ,offshore company formation and structure for your business interests (at no cost or obligation)

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Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.

Tax website  Http://www.youroffshoremoney.com

Are These Bargain Stocks Or ” Hopeless ” – Groupon / NIKO / BioExx / CML / IBG

Logo of Groupon

Logo of Groupon (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Nov. 18

As an investor, you need to know if the underlying problem that caused the stock to fall is fixable. Let’s take a look at a few companies that have, for lack of a better phrase, screwed it up, and examine what happened and whether there is any hope left.

Niko Resources Ltd. (NKO/TSX) was an $8 stock back in 2001. It then went on a huge run following some big gas discoveries in India and rose above $110 in 2010. Now, it’s back more or less where it was 11 years ago. In 2007, it raised $500-million, at $105 per share, but its market cap today is less than that.

What happened? Well, expensive wells were dry, it was hit with political issues in Bangladesh, and it has a big debt load looming over its head. BMO in a report said Niko’s failure to outline a debt repayment plan is “disconcerting.”

Niko recently cut its dividend to save some money and its shares are down 81% this year. On Thursday, Niko sold $252- million in convertible debentures and shares to get itself back on track. But we would still just watch this one from the sidelines

BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. (BXI/TSX) developed a new way of processing canola oil and over the past three years it has raised a total of $83-million through five financings. Its current market cap is just $18-million and it is also in the process of raising money via a convertible debenture offering. BioExx states this is “an exciting time for the company.”

BioExx is still showing the potential of scaling up its production process, but financing issues are coming into play. Again, too much risk on this one.

CML Healthcare Inc. (CLC/TSX)

CML Healthcare Inc. (CLC/TSX) offers medical imaging and lab services in Ontario. Its recent third-quarter earnings were a big miss, but the company, in our view, screwed up by not announcing a dividend cut. Everyone now expects a cut, and the stock has been killed because of the dividend uncertainty.

Uncertainty is not what any stock needs in this environment. The earnings miss was bad, yet the stock might not have fallen so much if the board had laid out the dividend cut at the same time.

But the stock has been beaten up a bit too much over this issue — now down 36% year-to-date — so this one probably has potential.

IBI Group Inc. (IBG/TSX) is in almost the exact same boat as CML after it also missed earnings expectations by a wide margin. The professional services and infrastructure company reported earnings of $0.13 per share, down 47%. But the board chose not to cut the dividend, which now yields 17.8%.

Stonecap Securities says a 50% dividend cut would actually be positive for IBI’s shares. We think the company still has value and it is profitable, but investors just won’t care much until there is more clarity on the dividend.

Like CML, the company should have taken its medicine at the same time as its earnings release.

Finally, you can’t screw up much worse than Groupon Inc. (GRPN/NASDAQ). After rejecting a US$6-billion takeover in late 2010 by Google, Groupon decided to go public, with its IPO at US$20 per share, valuing the company at US$13-billion.

The decision looked good, for a day or so. Now, after missing earnings and pretty much everything else, its shares trade at US$2.63 and the whole company is worth just US$1.7-billion.

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