BBRY : NASDAQ : US$15.63
BB : TSX
SELL
Target: US$9.00
COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
BlackBerry Ltd. is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wire less solutions for the mobile communications market. Through development and integration of hardware, software and services, the company provides solutions for access to information including email, messaging, Internet and intranet-based applications
Canaccord says that its global surveys indicate mixed BlackBerry sell-through trends, with weakening sales of the Z10 over the past month but strong initial demand for the limited supply Q10.
Given the weaker Z10 sales levels combined with more limited initial supply of the Q10 than our expectations, we are lowering our BB10 selling
estimates for the May quarter from 3.3M to 2.8M units. While we anticipate stronger near-term results for BlackBerry as higher margin BB10 smartphones sell into the channel, we do not believe BlackBerry can achieve sell-through market share levels to return to sustained profit
levels. Therefore, we reiterate our SELL rating and $9 price target.
Investment highlights
Given store surveys indicated slowing Z10 sales at Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile combined with lower supply levels of the Q10 with a physical keyboard than our expectations, we have reduced our May quarter BB10 smartphone shipment estimates from 3.3M units to 2.8M units.
With new BB10 smartphones facing increased high-end competition from the Samsung Galaxy S4 and the HTC One, we anticipate Z10 sales could further weaken in the consumer retail channels. However, we anticipate a strong ramp in Q10 sales over the next several months could more than offset the slower Z10 sales.
While we have lowered our BB10 estimates, we modestly lower our 2013 LPS estimates given our belief BlackBerry may temper nearterm
marketing plans until supply levels of the Q10 improve.
Given our lower BB10 estimates primarily from our lowered Z10 sales assumptions, we reduce our F2014 LPS estimate from ($0.37) to ($0.44). Our F2015 LPS estimate of ($0.75) remains unchanged.
Related articles
- Running BlackBerry Link on a Windows Home Server (forums.crackberry.com)
- BlackBerry Navigation on my BB10 (ronbb10.wordpress.com)
- Analyst sees RIM selling assets or company, or being ‘niche’ supplier (theglobeandmail.com)

