Workday

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WDAY : NYSE : US$65.75
BUY 
Target: US$75.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Workday provides enterprise-scale, cloud applications that deliver the core functions for global customers to manage the human capital and financial resources of an organization. Solutions include: HCM, Financial Management, Payroll, Time Tracking, Procurement, Employee Expense Management, etc. Workday was founded by the former founders of PeopleSoft in 2005 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, CA.

Investment recommendation


Workday delivered another of what we expect to be several more years of quarterly beat and raises. In a world of near-zero interest rates, a fast scaling firm like WDAY is likely to see its revenue growth exceed gradual multiple compression so that investors can logically expect 15%+ annual rates of return on the stock. Reiterate BUY and increasing price target to $75 (up $5).
Investment highlights
 Strong start to FY: another upside quarter. WDAY reported Q1/14 revenues of $91.6M, which was $4.1M ahead of our estimate and represented
normalized y-o-y growth of 75% (99% on the subscription line). Calculated billings of $107.3M were up 31% y-o-y and beat our estimate by $1.5M.
WDAY generated free cash flow of $15.3M (inclusive of several one-time gains), which was well ahead of our expectation for a material loss.
 Business highlights: large enterprises continue to select WDAY. During the quarter Bristol Myers and Levi Strauss chose WDAY for HR as well as
University of Miami for the full WDAY applications suite. Notable go-lives in the quarter included Johnson & Johnson, London Stock Exchange, and Cornell University. WDAY ended the quarter with more than 450 customers, of which 290 are live (up from 265 at the end of last quarter).
 Outlook: go-forward estimates inch nicely higher again. WDAY increased F2014 guidance by $5M and called for an operating loss that at mid-point was 250 bps better than last expected. We have increased our F2014 and F2015 revenue estimates by $8M and $10M, respectively, which are now 60% and 50% y-o-y revenue growth (and likely still a bit conservative

Workday INCREASING TARGET TO $70. BUY

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WDAY : NYSE : US$61.63
BUY 
Target: US$70.00 

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Workday provides enterprise-scale, cloud applications that deliver the core functions for global customers to manage the human capital and financial resources of an organization. Solutions include: HCM, Financial Management, Payroll, Time Tracking, Procurement, Employee Expense Management, etc. Workday was founded by the former founders of PeopleSoft in 2005 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, CA

Investment thesis


We believe Workday is exceptionally well-positioned to disrupt and capture market share in several segments of the HR and broader ERP segments of the software industry. We suggest that investors own at least a starter position in WDAY and hope for an exogenous stock market shock to create an opportunity to fill out a full position. The company’s above-consensus Q4/13 results and management’s opinion of its calendar 2013 outlook reinforce our point of view.
Investment highlights
 Upside results across the board. WDAY reported Q4/13 revenues of $81.5M, which were $3.5M ahead of expectations and showed y-o-y
growth of 89% (105% on the subscription line). Calculated billings of $114.6M were up 48% y-o-y and beat our estimate by $6.6M. WDAY
generated positive operating cash flow for the quarter and the year versus our expectation for a material loss. Total backlog of contracted subscription revenue stood at $695M at the end of the fiscal year.
 Customer metrics. In F2013 WDAY added 150 new customers, including 50 in FQ4 alone. Notable Q4 customer wins included Nissan, Del Monte, Primark, SunTrust Banks, etc. The firm ended the year with 265 customers live with HCM solutions and 18 live on financials (of 50 total contracted).
Outlook

F2013 revenues guidance nicely ahead of consensus. Even taking into account WDAY’s efforts to push more of its implementation efforts to
services partners, the firm still provided a revenue outlook ahead of consensus (53-59% growth). Operating losses as a percent of revenues
should decline, and we expect billings to grow in the mid-40% range.

Tech Trends That Will Make Someone Billions Of Dollars Next Year

Big Data

Big Data (Photo credit: Kevin Krejci)

The world will spend a whopping $2.1 trillion on tech in 2013

The world will spend a whopping $2.1 trillion on tech in 2013

401

2013 will be a make-it-or-break-it year in mobile for some vendors

2013 will be a make-it-or-break-it year in mobile for some vendors

Steve Kovach, Business Insider

When it come to mobile, 2013 will bring us these three things:

  • Mini tablets with screens less than 8 inches in size will be the rage, accounting for 60% of tablets sold.
  • The market for smartphones and tablets combined will grow by 20%.
  • 2013 will be a make-or-break year for mobile platforms. Those that don’t attract interest from at least 50% of app developers won’t survive. Google and Apple are past that threshold. Microsoft now sits at 33%. RIM is at 9%.

Big IT companies will feast on smaller cloud players

Big IT companies will feast on smaller cloud players

The software-as-a-service phenomenon really grew up in the past 12 months, with big vendors like Oracle and SAP spending billions to buy their way into the market.

IDC thinks we haven’t seen anything yet.

“There will be over $25 billion in SaaS acquisitions over the next 20 months, up from $17 billion in the past 20 months,” it says.

Some companies are too highly valued to make for easy acquisitions, like the publicly traded Salesforce.com, worth $22 billion, or the fast-growing, still-private Box at $1.2 billion. But a bunch of others could be ripe for deals: Okta, Zenoss, and ServiceMax come to mind

A lot of smaller, specialized clouds will sprout up

A lot of smaller, specialized clouds will sprout up

In 2012, a lot of new cloud tech came out that made it easier and more affordable for anyone to build a cloud.

That means that in 2013, a whole bunch of new clouds will crop up. These will serve specific industries, for instance hospitals, construction companies, banks.

Big data will get bigger

Just like 2012 was the year that mobile devices and cloud computing became the must-have things for every company, big data will be the thing everyone will use in 2013.

IDC says the big-data market will grow at an annual rate of 40%. It will hit about $5 billion in 2012, $10 billion by 2013, and $53 billion by 2017.

The data center as we know it is over

The data center as we know it is over

Meet Yellowstone, the super hero supercomputing fighting climate change

NCAR

New data-center technologies that took root in 2012 will become the big thing in 2013.

These include “converged systems,” where companies buy machines that have computation, storage, networking, and software bundled together.

Another is software-defined networks, which is a new way to build networks.

These represent a tremendous opportunity for the established players like Cisco, Dell, HP, and Oracle. But they are also a big risk if they get it wrong. A whole class of startups are rising up to disrupt these guys.

Your work computer will be an ID you keep in your head

Your work computer will be an ID you keep in your head

AP

The bring-your-own-device trend, also known as BYOD, will morph into BYID—bring-your-own-ID.

That is, your work computer will be available to you anywhere, on any device. All you have to do is properly log in.

This is the ultimate result of investments in new cloud, mobile, and data-center technologies

Salesforce.com BUY Target $ 180

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Nov. 21

Salesforce.com

CRM : NYSE : US$145.90
BUY 
Target: US$180.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
11-year-old Salesforce.com offers Internet-based subscriptions to software applications and infrastructure to over 80,000 customers worldwide. The firm’s core products include Sales Cloud (sales automation), Service Cloud (customer support and call center applications), Force.com (a development platform) and Chatter (a person-to-person collaboration tool for business).

Investment thesis
We expect CRM shares to gradually advance toward our $180 price target over the next few months. We saw nothing in this quarter’s commentary
that altered our bullish view on Salesforce’s future fundamentals and the company’s ability to remain a best-in-class, disruptive large business Cloud vendor that is headed to $10 billion in revenues within 6 years by our reckoning (22% CAGR).
 Another solid quarter. CRM reported FQ3 revenues and non-GAAP EPS of $788M (+35% y-o-y) and $0.33, which were $13.4M and a penny
ahead of our estimates. Calculated billings of $743M topped our estimate by $11M and grew approximately 31% after normalizing for the reemphasis on annual billing terms and the sequential benefit from FX. OCF of $106M was slightly below consensus but included a roughly
$32M negative impact from 3 non-recurring items (a payables catchup, settlement of a small lawsuit, and the Buddy Media transaction).
 Outlook:

FQ4 and preliminary F2014 guidance in-line with Street. CRM provided January quarter revenue and non-GAAP EPS ranges that
bracketed our estimates. Our estimate for Q4 calculated billings growth of 20% is below trend, as expected, as the firm laps a large multi-year
invoice as well as the impact from the refocus on annual billing terms in the year-ago period. CRM continues to expect OCF growth of at least
20% in F2013. The firm’s preliminary F2014 revenue guidance implies 26% y-o-y growth, in line with consensus and slightly below our highend
estimate. We have introduced F2015 revenue and FCF/share estimates of $4.76B (+24%) and $5.06.

21Vianet Group

 

Nov. 14

21Vianet Group

VNET : NASDAQ : US$10.05
BUY Target: US$16.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
The largest carrier-neutral Internet data center service provider in China, 21Vianet hosts customers’ servers and networking equipment and provide interconnectivity  services. The company also provides managed network services through its data transmission network.

Investment recommendation
We reiterate our BUY rating on 21Vianet ahead of its Q3/12 earnings release and believe that the company remains best positioned to benefit from the secular tailwinds in the rapidly growing Chinese data center market. Following the successful expansion of significant data center capacity in Q2/12, we believe the company is on path for accelerating revenue growth for the balance of 2012 and into 2013.

Further, we believe that the partnership with Microsoft to tap the Chinese cloud computing market has likely been underappreciated by investors.
Investment highlights
 Expect solid Q3/12 – Following close to 2,300 cabinets added at the end of Q2, our recent checks indicate that pre-sales trend remained solid in Q3/12, positioning the company well for accelerating revenue growth in Q4/12 and into 2013. Although we do not expect material margin expansion in the near term, we expect the company’s investments will improve its growth and margin profile over time.
Cloud effort likely underappreciated – Despite the company’s longawaited announcement to partner with Microsoft in targeting the Chinese cloud computing market, its shares has witnessed some downdraft in recent weeks. However, we believe the agreement would enable 21Vianet to leverage an exceptionally strong brand in China (Microsoft) and add an attractive growth engine to its business model in a capital efficient way, a potential likely underappreciated so far by investors.
 Multiple sources of growth, on tap – With the Microsoft partnership (Cloud) and Fastweb acquisition (CDN) this year and the Gehua Network acquisition (Bandwidth) in 2011, we believe 21 Vianet has established a unique platform to not only sustain strong growth from various sources in the Chinese market, but also improve its profitability over time with the common infrastructure.

Google’s Chromebook : Review

 

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Tech blog FT

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://blogs.ft.com/tech-blog/2012/10/googles-chromebook-comes-of-age/#ixzz2Ag6Q5653The launch this week of a $249 (£229) Chromebook makes Google’s vision of computing in the cloud affordable and appealing, with a thin and light machine from Samsung that is $200 cheaper than its previous model released in May.

This is the fourth version of the Chromebook I have tried and Google and Samsung appear to have finally got it right. The CR-48 prototype was too buggy and had a terrible, unusable trackpad; the first proper Chromebook in June 2011 seemed too restrictive – I felt trapped inside a browser that filled the screen; the second, released a year later, seemed a mismatch of free limited software and expensive high-spec hardware – I thought then that Google’s vision of the future appeared to be about paying more for less.

With the new Chromebook, the balance and the price are right.

This is less powerful and makes more compromises on components than its predecessor, but not so that you would notice or mind much, as everything works so well.

The screen has been reduced in size from 12.1in to 11.6in, but it is still sharp and pleasing. The construction is less classy – it is aluminium-coloured plastic. But this is a smaller, lighter machine – just 2.4lbs down from 3.3lbs, and it has more memory – 16Gb versus just 4Gb before.

The trackpad works smoothly and superbly and the keys are nicely spaced to make typing a pleasant experience – I am writing this review on it now (One bugbear remains – still no delete key, only a backspace one).

Battery life is about six hours, aided by one of Samsung’s own Arm-based processors, rather than an Intel one this time, which also makes the Chromebook run cool and silent on my lap.

Riding the Caltrain from San Francisco to Mountain View, I felt a little inferior banging away on this next to someone with a MacBook Air – before realising he would have paid four times as much.

The Chromebook turns on in a flash and web pages load quickly – it has dual-band 802.11n Wi-Fi as well as Bluetooth 3.0. There is also a USB 3.0 port, a 2.0 one, a full HDMI connection and a memory card slot. A webcam and microphones are above the screen.

The software is much the same. Google is thankfully sticking with allowing us a desktop to run the Chrome browser inside and there is the useful taskbar giving access to an increasing number of apps. I did not try them all, but the Chrome Remote Desktop Beta worked better than previously in putting the desktops of my Windows and Mac computers in a browser window and letting me control them. They looked slightly fuzzy and I could not make them go full-screen, but this can be a useful feature.

For someone who spends most of his time in one Google service or another – Gmail, Drive, Chrome browsing, Play for music and other entertainment – I would certainly slip the Chromebook into a bag on days when I am out and about and not needing to do any heavy-lifting PC work.

Where Google services are weaker – for example, Chat is still poorly designed and no match for Skype – the Chrome operating system still seems limited in not being compatible with or having available some favourite programs.

But overall the Chromebook feels like a mature product and no longer a questionable experiment on whether we are ready to live in the cloud.

Sierra Wireless – A Near Double to $13.00

Sierra Wireless

Sierra Wireless (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

October 15 

Seirra Wireless

SWIR : NASDAQ : US$7.85

Sierra Wireless, Inc. provides wireless solutions for the mobile computing and machine-to-machine (M2M)

markets.

 

52-week Range: US$6.02 – 9.83

Market Cap (M): US$240.00

Avg. Daily Vol. (000s): 115.9

Shares Out (M): 31.0

Investment recommendation: 

 (CEO Jason Cohenour  presented at the  CTIA MobileCon in San Diego) We believe Sierra’s business is tracking in line with our Q3/12 estimates, with strong M2M sales bolstered by the integration of Sagemcom M2M offset by slightly softer mobile computing sales as our checks indicate carrier partners have focused on new smartphone sales versus mobile computing products.

Overall, we believe Sierra’s LTE product portfolio remains well positioned with leading carriers and we expect sustainable long-term growth for its M2M business.  

Investment highlights  

Sierra as the company has maintained its leading market share through strong sales into the automotive, energy, and networking verticals. Further, we believe the integration of Sagemcom M2M has progressed smoothly and we believe its strong share of the mobile payment vertical should provide upside to our H2/12 M2M estimates that exclude Sagemcom.

While we anticipate a long-term 15%+ CAGR for the higher-margin M2M business, we have modeled slightly slower growth due to European macro concerns.  

At the CTIA MobileCon show the company hosted a M2M ecosystem breakfast and unveiled AirVantage 4, an update to Sierra’s integrated cloud-based M2M deployment, management, and analytics platform. This update includes membership into the AWS Partner Network where customers can launch M2M applications in Amazon’s cloud with essentially zero infrastructure investment, meaning less expensive and faster time to market.

This partnership could prove a competitive differentiator for AirVantage. 

We believe Sierra management has prudently minimized mobile   computing investment and can leverage Sierra’s strong LTE position at key carriers to generate cash for M2M growth investments.

Valuation:  

Price Target $13 is 14x our 2013 pro forma EPS estimate.

 
 

Motley Fool Picks Google for THE Cloud Computing Winner

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You can listen to their half hour promo video for their newsletter or just research ” Cloud Computing ” – two words that may make Google  even more millions.

Motley Fool says it is the new agent of creative destruction.

 

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500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections – All You Need To Succeed

Posted: August 4, 2012 | Author:  | Filed under: AMP Books and Seminars | Tags: , | Modify: Edit this | Leave a comment »

Are Your Investing Results Mediocre ?

You can make the change :

Ask yourself the hard questions – what are my expectations/ results and what must I do to change if the results aren’t what you want.

You don’t have to have a 500 page plan like that outlined in my book – but no plan is a plan for no success ( pardon the lack of grammar ).

How many books on investing did you read this year ?

What are you doing differently from last year ?

Don’t remain in denial – face your demons and move up to success .

 

All You Need To Succeed –

in 500 pages of Investing Strategy

and Selections

Available now at Amazon .com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Apple’s ” Genius” Retail Army, Long on Loyalty – Short on Pay

Apple Inc.

Apple Inc. (Photo credit: marcopako )

New York Times :

Apple now has 363 stores worldwide.

Collectively, these stores generate a staggering US$18-billion of revenue per year.

Apple’s stores also generate an astounding 26% profit margin, allowing the company to rake in US$4.4-billion of retailing operating profit a year.

Apple now employs a vast number of store employees — more than 42,200 worldwide and 30,000 in the U.S. alone.

These employees work for a hip, cool company that makes them feel good about their work. But they don’t get paid much.

The average store employee helps generate about $420,000 of annual sales for Apple each year but takes home only about $25,000. The disparity between what Apple makes from its stores and the amount it pays its store employees is unmatched in the retail world.  But it’s reflective of a larger problem in the economy. Many of the jobs we create are “McJobs” that don’t pay enough to live on and have little upward mobility.

Last year, during his best three-month stretch, Jordan Golson sold about $750,000 worth of computers and gadgets at the Apple Store in Salem, N.H. It was a performance that might have called for a bottle of Champagne — if that were a luxury Mr. Golson could have afforded.

“I was earning $11.25 an hour,” he said. “Part of me was thinking, ‘This is great. I’m an Apple fan, the store is doing really well.’ But when you look at the amount of money the company is making and then you look at your paycheck, it’s kind of tough.”

America’s love affair with the smartphone has helped create tens of thousands of jobs at places like Best Buy and Verizon Wireless and will this year pump billions into the economy.

Within this world, the Apple Store is the undisputed king, a retail phenomenon renowned for impeccable design, deft service and spectacular revenues. Last year, the company’s 327 global stores took in more money per square foot than any other United States retailer — wireless or otherwise — and almost double that of Tiffany, which was No. 2 on the list, according to the research firm RetailSails.

Worldwide, its stores sold $16 billion in merchandise.

But most of Apple’s employees enjoyed little of that wealth. While consumers tend to think of Apple’s headquarters in Cupertino, Calif., as the company’s heart and soul, a majority of its workers in the United States are not engineers or executives with hefty salaries and bonuses but rather hourly wage earners selling iPhones and MacBooks.

About 30,000 of the 43,000 Apple employees in this country work in Apple Stores, as members of the service economy, and many of them earn about $25,000 a year. They work inside the world’s fastest growing industry, for the most valuable company, run by one of the country’s most richly compensated chief executives, Tim Cook. Last year, he received stock grants, which vest over a 10-year period, that at today’s share price would be worth more than $570 million.

And though Apple is unparalleled as a retailer, when it comes to its lowliest workers, the company is a reflection of the technology industry as a whole.

The Internet and advances in computing have created untold millionaires, but most of the jobs created by technology giants are service sector positions — sales employees and customer service representatives, repairmen and delivery drivers — that offer little of Silicon Valley’s riches or glamour.

Much of the debate about American unemployment has focused on why companies have moved factories overseas, but only 8 percent of the American work force is in manufacturing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job growth has for decades been led by service-related work, and any recovery with real legs, labor experts say, will be powered and sustained by this segment of the economy.

And as the service sector has grown, the definition of a career has been reframed for millions of American workers.

“In the service sector, companies provide a little bit of training and hope their employees leave after a few years,” says Arne L. Kalleberg, a professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina. “Especially now, given the number of college kids willing to work for low wages.”

By the standards of retailing, Apple offers above average pay — well above the minimum wage of $7.25 and better than the Gap, though slightly less than Lululemon, the yoga and athletic apparel chain, where sales staff earn about $12 an hour. The company also offers very good benefits for a retailer, including health care, 401(k) contributions and the chance to buy company stock, as well as Apple products, at a discount.

But Apple is not selling polo shirts or yoga pants. Divide revenue by total number of employees and you find that last year, each Apple store employee — that includes non-sales staff like technicians and people stocking shelves — brought in $473,000.

“These are sales rates for a consulting company,” said Horace Dediu, an analyst who blogged about the calculation on the site Asymco. Electronics and appliance stores typically post $206,000 in revenue per employee, according to the latest figures from the National Retail Federation.

Even Apple, it seems, has recently decided it needs to pay its workers more. Last week, four months after The New York Times first began inquiring about the wages of its store employees, the company started to inform some staff members that they would receive substantial raises. An Apple spokesman confirmed the raises but would not discuss their size, timing or impetus, nor who would earn them.

But Cory Moll, a salesman in the San Francisco flagship store and a vocal labor activist, said that on Tuesday he was given a raise of $2.82 an hour, to $17.31, an increase of 19.5 percent and a big jump compared with the 49-cent raise he was given last year.

“My manager called me into his office and said, ‘Apple wants to show that it cares about its workers, and show that it knows how much value you add to the company, by offering a bigger raise than in previous years,’ ” Mr. Moll recalled.

Though a significant increase, Mr. Moll’s new salary of about $36,000 puts him on the low side of the wage scale at the other large sellers of Apple products, AT&T and Verizon Wireless, both of which offer commissions to sales staff at their stores.

In other areas, Apple has been a leader. Stores in a variety of fields have adopted the company’s retail techniques, like the use of roving credit-card swipers to minimize checkout lines, as well as the petting-zoo layout that encourages customers to test-drive products.

But Apple’s success, it turns out, rests on a set of intangibles; foremost among them is a built-in fan base that ensures a steady supply of eager applicants and an employee culture that tries to turn every job into an exalted mission.

This is why Apple can do something unique in the annals of retailing: pay a modest hourly wage, and no commission, to employees who typically have college degrees and who at the highest performing levels can move as much as $3 million in goods a year.

Autodesk – Analyst Day Update – Profits In the Cloud Target $47

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Autodesk |

ADSK : NASDAQ : US$34.64  Buy , Target US$47.00

Analyst day outlines growth opportunities; reiterate BUY June 20

Investment thesis

Autodesk has aligned itself to benefit from a major platform shift by its customers to mobile, cloud and social computing. We believe this three- to four-year mix shift should result in far more consistent growth than investors expect. If so, ADSK’s multiple could approach 20x as the business consistently grows revenues and EPS at a 12-15% and 16-20% pace.

 Our more conservative $47 target is based on a 17x multiple on our C2013 estimates.

Investment highlights

Analyst day - three-hour meeting along with about 60 buyand sell-siders at the NASDAQ market site in New York. Short-term incremental data. Business conditions are not great, but they are far from the bad days of 2008. We believe there are several transformative deals in the works for which Autodesk is competing. While the firm won’t win all of them, we believe the odds favor a large deal or two falling ADSK’s way over the next 12 months. Our forecasts do not include such “blue bird” wins.

Long-term incremental information. Autodesk has embraced the notion of consumer led innovation. This means testing low end apps on tablets and then taking the best features back to the enterprise level. This also means cloud computing back ends for non-iterative designs and social collaboration within and increasingly between organizations.

Conclusion: bigger addressable markets and more predictable growth. This is Autodesk’s third evolution in a decade. First was a forced march to get laggard users up to date (the Bartz era), then the move to 3-D subscriptions  and now the shift to elastic cloud, infinite computing).

 

While it will be years before everything is cloud, ADSK has made the most decisive steps to get ahead of this inevitable cycle. We generally agree with the industry consultant assessment that ADSK’s high level addressable market is now about $19 billion.

Valuation and price target

$47 price target is based on a 17x multiple applied to our C2013 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $2.35 plus approximately $7.00 in prospective net cash per share.

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