SPS Commerce

SPSC : NASDAQ : US$54.04
BUY 
Target: US$60.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
SPSC sells on-demand supply chain management and visibility solutions. Specifically, the company provides cloud-based electronic data interchange (EDI) solutions and supply chain analytics to keep trading partners’ (retailers & suppliers) interactions aligned. Founded in 1987 and public since April 2010, SPSC is headquartered in Minneapolis, MN.

Investment thesis


We recently attended several meetings with investors in order to listen to the SPS story again. We learned some interesting tidbits that augment our nearly 15 years of tracking this company from its early days as a tiny but promising St. Paul-based firm. The key for investors is that this story is far from done.
SPS has a long way to run, in our opinion. We’d be buyers today and use any, likely temporary, sell-offs to fill out a position.
Investment highlights
 Story has legs. We estimate that SPS has penetrated about 11% of a narrowly defined and 5% of a more broadly defined $1.8 billion
addressable market. We make the out-of-consensus case for long-term 30% operating margins, which is higher than management’s target of 20-
25%. If we are right, this means 10 years of 100-200 basis point annual margin improvements are ahead for this company.
 Competitive set. We discuss our view of the innovator’s dilemma that legacy vendors face as well as broadly speculate on some of SPS’s private
company competitors.
 Thinking about valuation: probably not much multiple expansion, but nice growth. While we cannot make the case that SPS is cheap, the firm,
in our opinion, has attractive long-term potential. We stress that our assessment, as is the case for every company public or private, could be
wholly devoid of accuracy when it comes to future events. For entities willing to accept the substantial risks of investing, our view is that they
could expect SPS’s multiples to stay relatively stable, which implies a stock price that could advance approximately in line with the firm’s
projected organic revenue growth of ~20%.

Rackspace Hosting HOLD

Image representing Rackspace as depicted in Cr...

Image via CrunchBase

RAX : NYSE : US$39.30
HOLD 
Target: US$37.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
A provider of managed hosting and cloud computing services, Rackspace provides businesses with the infrastructure to house their data (web sites and applications), and with the customer support for their IT services need. Primarily focused on small businesses, Rackspace Hosting is known for its unique customer service experience known as “Fanatical Support”. The company is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

DARK CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE HORIZON; REDUCING PT TO $37
Investment recommendation
Despite recent estimate cuts, we believe additional downside risks remain given the increasing level of competition and the operating distraction we believe is resulting from the OpenStack transition. We believe aggressive competitive pricing pressures and continued momentum from competitors’ cloud eco-systems will likely make the OpenStack transition increasingly difficult. We are lowering our target multiple from 10x to 9x and our price target from $40 to $37accordingly.
Investment highlights
 Dedicated business likely further slows – We believe the increasing adoption of IT outsourcing to the public cloud will likely shift more
incremental demand away from traditional dedicated hosting services. Premium pricing, product cycle transition and continued sales force distraction due to OpenStack will likely make it difficult for Rackspace to regain momentum in its core dedicated business.
 Uphill battle for OpenStack – As Amazon AWS, Microsoft AzureVMWare and Google further penetrate respective cloud ecosystems, we believe it will be increasingly challenging for OpenStack to gain traction in the increasingly competitive market. The aggressive pricing strategy by AWS and matched by others will likely continue to create significant headwinds for companies like Rackspace.
 Still too early for bottom fishing – Despite the over 50% drop in share price from its recent peak, we believe it is still too early for bottom fishing given the continued downside risk and with its shares still valued at 9.7x 2014E EBITDA.

Blame It On Bill Gates ! PC Sales Slide

Image representing Microsoft as depicted in Cr...

Image via CrunchBase

Microsoft (MSFT : NASDAQ : US$28.79)
Dell (DELL : NASDAQ : US$14.10)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ : NYSE : US$20.90)
According to IDC, personal computer sales fell 14% this quarter, on a year-over-year-basis, the largest decline
since IDC started tracking sales in 1994.

The research firm had forecast a 7.7% drop in the quarter. “At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market,” said Bob O’Donnell, IDC Program Vice President, Clients and Displays in IDC’s press release.

He added, ”While some consumers appreciate the new form factors and touch capabilities of Windows 8, the radical changes to the UI, removal of the familiar Start button, and the costs associated with touch have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices. Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market. Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that Microsoft is developing a smaller, 7-inch version of its Surface tablet, according to sources close to the matter.

One person familiar with Microsoft’s product plans said the 7-inch tablets weren’t part of the company’s strategy last year, but Microsoft executives realized they needed a response to the rapidly growing popularity of smaller tablets like Google’s (GOOG) 7-inch Nexus, which was announced last summer, and the 7.9-inch iPad Mini introduced by Apple (AAPL) last October.

Apple Target $ 600 Q2/F13 PREVIEW; UPDATING ESTIMATES

Image representing Apple as depicted in CrunchBase

Image via CrunchBase

AAPL : NASDAQ : US$423.20
BUY 
Target: US$600.00

Q2/F13 PREVIEW; UPDATING ESTIMATES

 

Investment recommendation:

Our monthly and overall March quarter global handset surveys indicated iPhone 5 sales declined consistent with normal seasonal patterns after very strong December holiday quarter sales. However, our surveys indicated stronger sales of iPhone 4/4S models at reduced prices, and we have updated our iPhone estimates.
Given our expectations for a summer iPhone refresh combined with competitor smartphone ramps including the Samsung Galaxy S4 during the transitional June quarter, we believe Apple could lose meaningful near-term market and profit share before the iPhone 5S refresh. Longer term, we maintain our belief Apple has a strong product pipeline that should result in reaccelerating Y/Y earnings growth during 2H/C2013.

In the near term, we believe Apple is likely to increase cash returns to shareholders. We reiterate our BUY rating and $600 price target.
Investment highlights
 Our March quarter global handset surveys indicated the iPhone 5, 4S, and 4 maintained leading share of the high-end smartphone market with improving supply and a stronger mix of iPhone 4 and 4S sales than our expectations.

 Based on reduced iPhone pricing combined with our increased iPhone 4 and 4S sales assumptions, we are increasing our March/June quarter iPhone unit estimates from 34.5M/25M to 37M/27M. However, with an increased mix of iPhone 4/4S sales, we are decreasing our ASP estimate from $651 in the December quarter to $601 in the March quarter.
 These adjustments slightly raise our F2013 EPS estimate from $43.59 to $43.86 and our F2014 estimate from $50.00 to $50.16.
Valuation:

Our $600 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 12x our F2014 EPS estimate.

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Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today’s stock market

 

Workday INCREASING TARGET TO $70. BUY

Image representing Workday as depicted in Crun...

Image via CrunchBase

WDAY : NYSE : US$61.63
BUY 
Target: US$70.00 

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Workday provides enterprise-scale, cloud applications that deliver the core functions for global customers to manage the human capital and financial resources of an organization. Solutions include: HCM, Financial Management, Payroll, Time Tracking, Procurement, Employee Expense Management, etc. Workday was founded by the former founders of PeopleSoft in 2005 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, CA

Investment thesis


We believe Workday is exceptionally well-positioned to disrupt and capture market share in several segments of the HR and broader ERP segments of the software industry. We suggest that investors own at least a starter position in WDAY and hope for an exogenous stock market shock to create an opportunity to fill out a full position. The company’s above-consensus Q4/13 results and management’s opinion of its calendar 2013 outlook reinforce our point of view.
Investment highlights
 Upside results across the board. WDAY reported Q4/13 revenues of $81.5M, which were $3.5M ahead of expectations and showed y-o-y
growth of 89% (105% on the subscription line). Calculated billings of $114.6M were up 48% y-o-y and beat our estimate by $6.6M. WDAY
generated positive operating cash flow for the quarter and the year versus our expectation for a material loss. Total backlog of contracted subscription revenue stood at $695M at the end of the fiscal year.
 Customer metrics. In F2013 WDAY added 150 new customers, including 50 in FQ4 alone. Notable Q4 customer wins included Nissan, Del Monte, Primark, SunTrust Banks, etc. The firm ended the year with 265 customers live with HCM solutions and 18 live on financials (of 50 total contracted).
Outlook

F2013 revenues guidance nicely ahead of consensus. Even taking into account WDAY’s efforts to push more of its implementation efforts to
services partners, the firm still provided a revenue outlook ahead of consensus (53-59% growth). Operating losses as a percent of revenues
should decline, and we expect billings to grow in the mid-40% range.

Wi-LAN Inc. Q4/12 EARNINGS RESULTS

Wi-Fi Signal logo

Wi-Fi Signal logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

WIN : TSX : C$4.37
WILN : NASDAQ
BUY 
Target: C$7.50

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:

Wi-LAN is a technology development and patent licensing company focused on wireless, wireline and digital video technologies. The company has a growing patent portfolio that is in excess of 3000 issued and pending patents that relate to Wi-Fi, WiMAX, CDMA, DSL, DOCSIS, and VChip technologies. The company has licensed its patent portfolio to more than 230 companies and is currently in multiple litigations that could yield significant windfalls. All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted

Investment recommendation


WiLAN’s Q4/12 results and guidance missed consensus forecast. Despite the reality of quarterly lumpiness, we like WiLAN for:
1) recurring, high margin license revenue,

2) ~four years of backlog,

3) a strong litigation pipeline in 2013 and potential for early settlement (starting as early as April) with lower than forecast litigation cost, and

4) an excellent balance sheet with $1.44/share in cash.

We are maintaining our BUY rating and target price of C$7.50.
Investment highlights
 Q4/12 results below expectations – Revenue was $21.2 million (down 13% YoY and 1% QoQ), below our estimate of $22.9 million and consensus of $21.6 million. Adj. EPS was $0.06, also below our estimate of $0.08 and consensus of $0.07.
 Weak Q1/13 guidance – WiLAN guided for Q1/13 revenue of at least $18.1 million, well below our previous estimate of $24 million and
consensus of $22.2 million. Adjusted EPS is expected to range from $(-0.02) to breakeven, versus Street expectations of $0.08. We have
lowered our Q1/13 estimates accordingly.
 14% dividend increase – WiLAN increased its dividend by 14% to $0.04 per share, supported by a strong balance sheet with a cash balance of $176.9 million (or $1.46 per share).
Valuation
WiLAN currently trades at 8.2x C2013E EV/EBITDA and 3.5x C2014E EV/EBITDA, versus peer averages of 8.4x and 8.6x, respectively. In view
of the anticipated lumpiness in 2013, we choose to base our 12-month target price of C$7.50 on 8x C2014E EV/EBITDA, which is also backed
by our DCF valuation.

Cirrus Logic

English: Cirrus Logic EP9315 chip. Photo taken...

English: Cirrus Logic EP9315 chip. Photo taken by me, Martin Guy on 3rd March 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Cirrus Logic

CRUS : NASDAQ : US$26.71
BUY 
Target: US$35.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Cirrus Logic, a fabless semiconductor company, develops and sells high-precision analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) for audio and energy markets worldwide. The company offers analog and mixed-signal audio converter, digital amplifiers and audio digital signal processor (DSP) products. The company also provides high-precision analog and mixed-signal ICs and boardlevel modules for energy-related applications.

Investment recommendation


We reiterate a BUY rating while lowering our price target on modestly lower C2013 estimates and multiple contraction due to end demand uncertainty for iPhone 5. We believe CRUS remains attractively valued, and we expect strong revenue growth in the September and December
quarters on new product launches by Apple and ramping catalog audio solutions for unnamed tier-1 OEM.
Investment highlights
 CRUS reported CQ4/12A (Dec.) after the close. Revenues and EPS were $310 million and $1.64, compared to consensus of $286 million and $1.41 and our estimate of $285 million and $1.41.
 Management guided revenue for the March quarter to range from $200 million to $220 million (down 32% Q/Q at the mid-point), compared to consensus estimate of $235 million and our estimate of $243 million. Implied EPS at the mid-point is $0.89, compared to consensus of $1.01 and our estimate of $1.05.
 Management highlighted that shipments in late December were higher, driving $25 million in upside to DecQ revenues. This drove MarQ revenue guidance to down 32% Q/Q vs. the prior -15% Q/Q expectation. F2013 revenue expectations remain unchanged.
Valuation
Cirrus Logic’s price target of $35 (was $52) is 9x our C2013 EPS estimate of $3.72 plus net cash of $2.15/share, compared to a 13x multiple net of cash for our coverage universe

Windows 8 Is A Flop : New York Times

Microsoft’s attempt to regain relevance and defend its core franchise with Windows 8 is off to a “shaky,” “tepid” start, says the New York Times.

 

Emmanuel Fromont, president of the America’s division of Acer, the number four PC maker, tells Nick Wingfield at the Times sales of Windows 8 PCs are coming in worse than expected. “It’s a slow start, there’s no question,” says Fromont.

Fromont isn’t the only person telling this story. At the end of November, Asus CFO David Chang said, “Demand for Windows 8 is not that good right now.”

And in the Times’ story, NPD analyst Stephen Baker is quoted as saying, “I think everybody would have hoped for a better start.” (NPD previously issued a negative report on the state of Windows 8.)

There are two reasons Windows 8 sales are slower than expected.

  • Windows 8 is a new experience with a steep learning curve that is intimidating some consumers.
  • Consumers are buying iPads, and delaying upgrades of their Windows-based PCs.

We didn’t reach out to Microsoft for comment on this story, but we know what it would say.

Microsoft would say it’s still too early to judge. It would say NPD’s data set is incomplete. It would say that it announced 40 million Windows 8 upgrades, which is better than it did with Windows 7 over a comparable period of time.

All of those are legitimated rebuttals. This is an ongoing story for Microsoft. But at first glance, it’s just not looking great for Microsoft.

Nederlands: Logo van Microsoft Windows 1.0, 2....

Nederlands: Logo van Microsoft Windows 1.0, 2.xx,3.xx, 95, 98, Me en 2000. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Tech Trends That Will Make Someone Billions Of Dollars Next Year

Big Data

Big Data (Photo credit: Kevin Krejci)

The world will spend a whopping $2.1 trillion on tech in 2013

The world will spend a whopping $2.1 trillion on tech in 2013

401

2013 will be a make-it-or-break-it year in mobile for some vendors

2013 will be a make-it-or-break-it year in mobile for some vendors

Steve Kovach, Business Insider

When it come to mobile, 2013 will bring us these three things:

  • Mini tablets with screens less than 8 inches in size will be the rage, accounting for 60% of tablets sold.
  • The market for smartphones and tablets combined will grow by 20%.
  • 2013 will be a make-or-break year for mobile platforms. Those that don’t attract interest from at least 50% of app developers won’t survive. Google and Apple are past that threshold. Microsoft now sits at 33%. RIM is at 9%.

Big IT companies will feast on smaller cloud players

Big IT companies will feast on smaller cloud players

The software-as-a-service phenomenon really grew up in the past 12 months, with big vendors like Oracle and SAP spending billions to buy their way into the market.

IDC thinks we haven’t seen anything yet.

“There will be over $25 billion in SaaS acquisitions over the next 20 months, up from $17 billion in the past 20 months,” it says.

Some companies are too highly valued to make for easy acquisitions, like the publicly traded Salesforce.com, worth $22 billion, or the fast-growing, still-private Box at $1.2 billion. But a bunch of others could be ripe for deals: Okta, Zenoss, and ServiceMax come to mind

A lot of smaller, specialized clouds will sprout up

A lot of smaller, specialized clouds will sprout up

In 2012, a lot of new cloud tech came out that made it easier and more affordable for anyone to build a cloud.

That means that in 2013, a whole bunch of new clouds will crop up. These will serve specific industries, for instance hospitals, construction companies, banks.

Big data will get bigger

Just like 2012 was the year that mobile devices and cloud computing became the must-have things for every company, big data will be the thing everyone will use in 2013.

IDC says the big-data market will grow at an annual rate of 40%. It will hit about $5 billion in 2012, $10 billion by 2013, and $53 billion by 2017.

The data center as we know it is over

The data center as we know it is over

Meet Yellowstone, the super hero supercomputing fighting climate change

NCAR

New data-center technologies that took root in 2012 will become the big thing in 2013.

These include “converged systems,” where companies buy machines that have computation, storage, networking, and software bundled together.

Another is software-defined networks, which is a new way to build networks.

These represent a tremendous opportunity for the established players like Cisco, Dell, HP, and Oracle. But they are also a big risk if they get it wrong. A whole class of startups are rising up to disrupt these guys.

Your work computer will be an ID you keep in your head

Your work computer will be an ID you keep in your head

AP

The bring-your-own-device trend, also known as BYOD, will morph into BYID—bring-your-own-ID.

That is, your work computer will be available to you anywhere, on any device. All you have to do is properly log in.

This is the ultimate result of investments in new cloud, mobile, and data-center technologies

Staples Will Offer In-Store 3D Printing

English: 3D printer Objet Eden 260V. Polyjet h...

English: 3D printer Objet Eden 260V. Polyjet high-precision technology, the 3D printer capable of printing 260x260x200mm’s volume has.This 3D printer is the technical high rapid prototyping. Magyar: Objet EDEN 260V 3D nyomtató. Polyjet technológiával működő nagy pontosságú 3D nyomtató, amely 260x260x200mm-es nyomtatási térfogattal rendelkezik. A gyors prototípusgyártás (rapid prototyping) jelenlegi csúcstechnológiájának számít ez a 3D nyomtató. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Nov. 30

The ubiquitous office supply store and print shop, will expand to offer in-store 3D printing services, reports The Register

The service will be called “Staples Easy 3D.” Customers will upload a 3D object file from their home computers, then pick up the completed object at a store or arrange to have it shipped.

So now Staples isn’t just about photocopies and Christmas cards. It will be about physical objects in the real world, only further bringing 3D printing into the mainstream.

One question: will Staples let you use its service to print guns?

3D printing is a process by which a machine shapes plastic into an object by laying down plastic one layer at a time. 

The potential here is huge – any object you can design using computer software can come to life in the real world as a physical object. A number of 3D printing companies have sprung up with the goal of making this technology both affordable and accessible to whomever wants it.

Massachusetts-based Formlabs began a Kickstarter project seeking $100,000 to bring to market the Form-1, its new 3D printer design. It ended up clobbering that goal, finally raising $2.9 million.

We spoke with Formlabs cofounder Maxim Lobovsky to get his take on why the project ended up being such a home run.

“There was an unmet need,” he said. “Professional 3D printers at the high end run tens of thousands of dollars. The low-end equipment is more affordable but less than professional. There was a huge hole in between to satisfy with architects, jewelers, and other professionals in that middle ground who can make use of 3D printing.”

The current batch of affordable hobbyist 3D printers carry out their process by means of plastic extrusion–plastic is melted and laid out very precisely one layer at a time until a fully-formed 3D object takes shape. Formlabs decided to take an entirely different approach.

“We use a photochemical process called stereolithography,” they said. “We hit liquid resin with a wavelength of light. It polymerizes and hardens, but this has nothing to do with heat. It’s an extremely precise laser that traces out objects to within 5 microns of precision.”

Stereolithography is one of the oldest forms of 3D printing technology, but Formlabs seems to have improved on a classic. The Form-1 was engineered to have as few moving parts as possible and the team took efforts to keep the price low–for example, the blue laser that hardens the liquid is the same as the readily-available laser in consumer Blu-Ray players.

They told us, “3D printers work fine when they cost $100,000, so we wanted to bring that price down.”

The most obvious parallels are to the early days of the PC industry. Where mainframe computers of the 1970s are like the super-expensive 3D printers of today, the first Macintosh is like the Form-1, a device that fits on your desk but still carries out all the functionality of its larger, pricier counterpart.

“The first PCs didn’t go to homes. They went to businesses,” Formlabs told us. “We tend to see that as the parallel to what we’re doing here.” And this obviously doesn’t exclude other 3D printing companies. Brook Drumm of Printrbot and Bre Pettis of Makerbot each chipped in for a Form-1 of their own.

For the immediate future, Formlabs plans to deliver products to its Kickstarter backers and hopes to make them “very happy.”

The larger mission after that is to prove that there’s far more demand for 3D printing than has been realized, and if a Form-1 3D printer should end up on every single engineer’s desktop in the process, they can certainly consider that a mission accomplished.

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