Macau Is Hot For These Entertainment Stocks

Official Logo of Galaxy Macau

Official Logo of Galaxy Macau (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential

Gambling is akin to trading, but with much more risk of failure. Everyone knows Las Vegas as the gambling capital of the United States, but Macau is hot and growing. Macau is designated a special administrative region of China, which means the area has the backing of the Chinese government for the purpose of casino development.

Attracted by abundant wealth and the appetite for risk and money in China and Asia, there has been a rapid move by the major casinos to establish and expand their presence on the island of Macau, China, which is the world’s largest gambling market, known in the gambling world as the “Monte Carlo of the Orient.”

I have visited this former Portuguese colony, which is located some 38 miles from Hong Kong, and there is an obvious push to build more high-end casinos, especially those integrated with hotel, retail, and casino operations. The market is primarily the China and Asia tourist market.

Much of the newer major development is along the Cotai strip in Macau, which will add to the original gambling establishments in the city.

The Cotai strip area is bustling with people armed with money to spend, and if the expansion plans are on target, it will inevitably make Vegas seem sedate in comparison.

In March, gross revenues in the Macau casino sector came in around $3.9 billion, up 25.4% year-over-year. (Source: Garlitos, K., “SLM Holdings Continue to Hold Top Revenue Spot in Macau,” CalvinAyre.com, April 3, 2013, last accessed May 9, 2013.)

The prospects for Macau, China are enormous; I’m betting on that, and so are some of the world’s largest casino operators.

Two of the major players expanding their presence in Macau are Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE/LVS) and China-based Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited (OTC/GXYEY).

In the first quarter, Las Vegas Sands attributed its strong growth in part to its expansion in Macau, where the company’s four Cotai strip properties attracted a record 14 million visitors. The company is a major player on the Cotai strip, which is attracting even more major players. The company’s subsidiary Sands China Ltd. reported a 39.3% year-over-year jump in net revenues to $2.0 billion in the first quarter, while earnings surged 63.3% year-over-year.

Speculating On Gambling    

But the company that I feel has excellent prospects is Galaxy Entertainment because of the fact that it’s an Asian-based company. The company is on an aggressive expansion path. Currently, it has two core properties—Galaxy Macau and StarWorld Hotel and Casino.

Galaxy Entertainment’s expansion plans are aggressive. The current development includes doubling the size of Galaxy Macau by the middle of 2015, and there are plans to launch Phase 3 and 4 at Galaxy Macau, to be completed between 2016 and 2018.

Two smaller casino players in the Macau China casino scene are Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ/WYNN) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE/MGM).

 

Best Buy Soldiers On

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BBY :

NYSE : US$17.16
Best Buy’s fiscal fourth-quarter loss narrowed sharply as the big-box consumer-electronics retailer recorded fewer onetime
charges, although core earnings dropped as same-store sales declined.

The quarterly report came a day after Best Buy ended talks with its largest shareholder and founder, Richard Schulze, over a deal in which he and a group of buyout firms were proposing to take a minority stake in the firm in exchange for three seats on the board.

For the quarter, Best Buy reported a loss of $409 million, or $1.21 a share, versus a loss of $1.82 billion, or $5.17 a share, a year earlier. Among other items, the latest quarter included $202 million in restructuring charges, $822 million in goodwill impairments, and an $18 million gain on the sale of investments. The year-ago period included $32 million in restructuring charges, $1.21 billion in goodwill impairments and a $55 million gain. Stripping out one-time items, per-share earnings were $1.64 versus $2.18 a year ago.

Revenue was roughly flat at $16.71 billion. Analysts expected earnings of $1.54 a share on $16.34 billion in revenue. “It was a quarter that was driven, not given,” said Joly, adding that Best Buy is “intently focused on the two problems we have to solve: stabilizing and improving our comparable store sales and increasing profitability across our global businesses.”

World Wrestling Ent. In This Corner Weighing Too Much Jack Bass !

WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan

WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

WWE :

NYSE : $8.33

World Wrestling Entertainment reported that it turned a profit in the fourth quarter after experiencing a loss in the same period a year earlier. Adjusted net income was in-line with analyst estimates while revenue topped expectations.

It said its fourth quarter net income was $0.6 million, or 1 cent per share, compared to a loss of $8.6 million, or 12 cents per share, in the same quarter a year earlier. Adjusting for one time, the WWE’s net income was $1.3 million, or 2 cents per share, compared to $1.8 million, or 2 cents per share, in the prior year quarter.

Revenues for the WWE totaled $115.1 million in the fourth quarter compared to $112.9 million in the prior year. This beat estimates as analysts were expecting a revenue of $114.6 million. “In the fourth quarter, we continued to make important progress on our key strategic initiatives, expanding the production and licensing of new programs and enhancing our brands,” commented Vince McMahonChairman and CEO of WWE. “Although we did not announce the launch of a domestic television network during the year, we believe, now more than ever, that we can realize the full value of our intellectual property using a variety of approaches in our global markets. Our confidence is based on the rising value of content and the tremendous global appeal of our brands.”

Zynga : Web Gamble Paying Off

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ZNGA : NASDAQ : US$3.19
Glu Mobile GLUU : NASDAQ : US$2.32

Nevada has become the first U.S. state to legalize internet gambling, with Governor Brian Sandoval signing a bill that would also allow Nevada to partner up with other states. Sandoval said, “This is an historic day for the great state of Nevada. Today I sign into law the framework that will usher in the next frontier of gaming in Nevada.”

Nevada already has 20 pending licensing applications from Web site operators and software vendors. The U.S. has generally opposed online gambling, with authorities going after any site providing Internet poker or other games.

The news sent shares of social gaming company’s Zynga and Glu Mobile into the green on Friday. Zynga filed for a preliminary finding of suitability with the Nevada Gaming Control Board in December and signed a deal with Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment, an online gambling company, in October as it looks to expand beyond its Farmville roots into the world of gambling.

Coinstar

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CSTR : NASDAQ :

US$48.47

A slowdown in Coinstar’s DVD-kiosk business, Redbox, weighed on its Q4 results, leading to a 27% decline  in profit. It reported a profit of $22.9 million, or 75 cents a share, down from $31.5 million, or $1.00 a share, a year earlier.

Excluding losses from equity investments and other items, core earnings fell to $0.93 from $1.03 a share. Revenue increased
8.4% to $564.1 million. The company in October projected core earnings of $0.62-0.77 a share on $552-602 million, and said
last month that its bottom-line results could beat expectations thanks to some cost and tax benefits. The deceleration adds fuel to
concerns that the slowdown in DVD rentals is a long term trend, as opposed to a short term lull.

In an attempt to transition into the digital realm, and away from physical discs, Coinstar recently entered into a streaming-video joint venture with Verizon (VZ).

Walt Disney The Force Is With The Mouse

Nooooooooooooooo...<3

November 1

Mr. Chewbacca, meet Goofy. You will be sharing a cubicle. 

Walt Disney will buy the  “Star Wars” franchise in a deal worth $4.05 billion. Disney will finance the purchase half in cash, half in stock, issuing roughly 40 million shares when the deal closes.

The deal will see Disney breathe new air into the “Star Wars” franchise with plans for three more films. The seventh installment in the franchise is expected to be released in 2015, ten years after “Revenge of the Sith” was released. George Lucas will remain a creative consultant on the films, although he said in a statement, “it‟s now time for me to pass „Star Wars‟ on to a new generation of filmmakers.” Following the deal, Lucas will be Disney‟s second largest individual shareholder with a 2.2% stake in the company. Disney CFO Jay Rasulo said the Lucasfilm purchase would lower Disney‟s earnings by a low single digit percentage in F 2013 and F2014.

 

Zynga Game On !

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October 26

Zynga (ZNGA : NASDAQ : US$2.39)

Zynga reported its official Q3/12 results following the close on Wednesday, after having pre-announced lowered expectations two weeks ago. Bookings shrank 16% y/y to $256 million, compared to Canaccord  estimate of $259 million and consensus of $291 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was $16.2 million compared to the  forecast of $29.3 million and consensus of $20.5 million. Management attributed the decline in bookings and profitability to weaker than expected performance from its portfolio of Facebook (FB)   games, its inability to launch new games to replace declining ones, and faster than expected adoption of mobile games by users.

The company also announced a cost reduction program, which will see a 5% reduction in full-time work-force with the potential to deliver up to $80 million in annualized cost savings. As of part of the cost reduction program, the company will phase out 13 underperforming games.

The company has signed an exclusive partnership with bwin.party to launch games in the U.K. in its first step into real-money gaming, which could potentially become a very lucrative business for the company.

 

 

Virgin Media BUY Target $41

Virgin Media

Virgin Media (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Oct. 25

Virgin Media

VMED : NASDAQ : US$32.94  BUY  Target $41

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:

Virgin Media is one of the largest UK providers of broadband, television, mobile telephone, and fixed line telephone services. The company distributes the video and data services via its hybrid-fiber cable network and its phone through its copper-pair infra-structure.

Summary

We believe investors should take advantage of VMED’s 3.5% pullback Wednesday as the company’s 3Q12 results indicate materially improving fundamentals. Pointedly, we saw significantly higher y/y video and broadband net adds despite increased competition in the marketplace (from BT Infinity and YouView). Importantly, the sub growth was driven by lower churn, not greater gross adds, reflecting increased consumer loyalty. We expect this sub growth to continue into 4Q12 and FY13.

At the same time, we are increasing our 4Q12 and FY12 OCF estimates, which demonstrate VMED’s ability to grow market share as well as margin. And as we roll our valuation forward to reflect FY13, our target increases from $33 to $41.

Increasing the target to $ 41 we capitalize our FY13 OCF estimates at 7x. Backing out net debt, we arrive at a $41 target. Notably, our FCF DCF calculation, which indicates a $50 valuation (based on 0% terminal growth rate and 8.5% WACC), suggests a 8x FY13 OCF multiple. To be  conservative, we utilize our lower valuation.

Increasing the Q4 subscriber net adds estimate because we expect the steady  improvement in churn to continue. Most notably, we are increasing our broadband estimate from 29k to 45k, nearly double the pre- 3Q12 report consensus estimate. That said, we would not be surprised if all subscriber consensus estimates increase.


 

Netflix Retake ?

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Netflix (NFLX : NASDAQ : US$60.10)

Oct. 25

Netflix plunged Wednesday after it posted weaker-than-expected subscriber growth in its third quarter and cut its fullyear subscriber growth forecast.

The company added 1.2 million new U.S. customers in the quarter, bringing its total subscriber base to 25.1 million. On top of the weak domestic numbers, the company said that its international expansion efforts would weigh on the bottom line for the balance of the year.

The company said it expects overseas markets to report as much as a $119 million loss in the fourth quarter, wiping out gains it would make in the U.S. CEO Reed Hastings said Latin America, where Netflix has more than one million users, remained a challenge as it continues to look for payment solutions allowing credit and debt card transactions on line. Q3 earnings came in at $8 million, or $0.13 per share on revenue of $822 million, well below the $822 million, or $1.16 per share it earned a year earlier.

 

Disney Soars With The Avengers

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Large multinational companies have been some of this year’s best stock performers. In today’s uncertain economic environment, investors have rewarded companies with well-recognized brand names, solid balance sheets and strong management teams. Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) is a prime example, and is a stock that we are looking to add to our portfolio.

Founded in 1923 by Walt Disney and his brother Roy, the Disney Brothers Studio, as it was then known, began by releasing a number of cartoons that quickly gained in popularity.

In 1928, Mickey Mouse was introduced in the film Steamboat Willie, setting the foundation for Disney’s enduring connection with children. Walt Disney himself received numerous awards and recognition along the way, while creating one of the largest film studios in the world. Today, Disney is a diversified company with multiple business units, including Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Disney Interactive.

Its Media business consists of popular television networks, such as ESPN, Disney Channel, ABC Family, A&E/Lifetime and SOAPnet. In its most recent quarter, these networks contributed a combined 46 per cent of Disney’s total revenues.

The company also produces original content for television shows on its ABC channel, including Grey’s Anatomy, Private Practice and Criminal Minds. ESPN continues to be the main growth driver in this segment, as the network’s attractive audience demographics and strong ratings enable it to charge the highest fees of any cable channel.

Disney’s Parks and Resorts business features world-renowned tourist attractions: Disney World and Disneyland. The division has performed well, as revenue grew by nine per cent year over year in the company’s latest quarter because of an increase in traffic and strong pricing power.

The company has also been successful in launching these vacation destinations outside the U.S. through international partnerships and licence agreements in Hong Kong, Paris and Tokyo, with a new project, Shanghai Disneyland, slated to open in 2015.

Revenues from its international destinations represented less than 20 per cent of the total Parks and Resorts segment, leaving significant room for growth.

Disney’s acquisitions of Marvel Entertainment for $4.2 billion in 2009 and Pixar for $7.5 billion in 2006 have also made the company a formidable competitor in Hollywood. Marvel’s film The Avengers has already generated nearly $1.5 billion in sales, making it the third-highest-grossing movie in history. In its most recent quarter, operating income from the Studio Entertainment division increased 540 per cent year-over-year, and we expect future movie releases to help drive significant earnings growth at the company.

Marvel and Pixar have given Disney additional content to leverage across its various business units, while contributing valuable technology that has revolutionized computer animation. The company’s proven ability to build long-lasting franchises will also benefit its Consumer Products and Interactive divisions, as it sells more toys, apparel and consumer electronics based on these newly acquired characters.

Although Disney’s success has elevated the company to our watch list, we are not buyers at current levels. At its recent close of $49.47, the stock is trading near all-time highs. Disney’s shares are up 32 per cent year-to-date, an impressive feat considering the company’s nearly $90-billion market value, while the S&P 500 has returned only 11 per cent over the same period.

Disney’s outperformance has been even more pronounced this summer, as it has gained 13 per cent vs. a return of only one per cent for the S&P 500. Although Disney deserves a premium valuation, we believe the stock has moved too far, too fast.

The company’s leading market position and strong execution have caught our attention. Nevertheless, we are price conscious and are not willing to chase any stock after such a sizable advance.

With many valuable assets, we believe Disney is well positioned for continued long-term growth, but we will wait patiently for a pullback in its share price before initiating a position. 

Ian Shaffer is a portfolio manager and the president and CEO of Galliant Capital Management,

R

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