Detour Gold Corporation

DGC : TSX : C$14.90

HOLD 
Target: C$15.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Detour Gold Corp. is a gold development company presently focused on advancing the Detour Lake project in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt of northeastern Ontario.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.
Investment recommendation
We maintain our HOLD rating on Detour Gold but are raising our target
price to C$15.00 from C$11.00. The company has made considerable
progress in de-risking the balance sheet and ramping up the Detour Lake
operation. Year-to-date, the stock is up 234% relative to the S&P/TSX Gold
Index, highlighting the market’s favourable response to management efforts
in addition to potential M&A speculation. While progress-to-date has been
encouraging and the plant is expected to hit nameplate capacity by year-end,
we still see a long way to go before the ramp-up is complete. As per the
latest mine plan, the head grade is expected to gradually increase to reserve
grade in 2017 while mining rates are expected to continue to ramp-up to
peak at 389 ktpd in 2020.
Detour Gold currently trades at 0.81x P/NAV and 8.1x P/CF 2015 vs the
large cap producer average of 0.89x and 10.2x respectively. At this stage of
the ramp-up we believe the discount is justified – continued execution on the
mine plan and successful completion of the ramp-up could lead to a
meaningfully higher multiple over the next few years. Considering the stock’s
higher leverage to the gold price, we also see the potential for the share price to move higher if the gold price continued to increase.

Valuation

We have updated our valuation and forecasts to reflect our revised commodity and currency price deck. The stronger assumed C$ has had a negative impact on our valuation and forecasts, but offset by lower assumed sustaining capital forecasts and longer-term operating costs closer to the recent mine plan (We had previously modeled 20% higher LOM sustaining capital and 20% higher longer term site costs beyond 2020).
The combination of the encouraging progress to date, expected meaningful operational improvements in H2/14, greater comfort level following the recent positive site visit and productive meetings with management have resulted in us increasing our target P/NAV multiple to 0.85x from 0.70x which is the primary reason for the increase in our target price.
Our 12- month target price has increased to C$15.00 from C$11.00 based on 0.85x (previously 0.70x) our operating NAVPS estimate plus working capital and other adjustments.

Gold Investor’s Handbook – Top Pick

My personal top pick is B2Gold ( BTG in the U.S. and BTO.TO) – management built and then sold Bema Gold. The company’s most recent acquisition – at $125 per ounce shows their savvy . My article / blog ( yes less than humble me )with that news is at http;//http://www.amp2012.com June 13th article

AMP Gold and Precious Metals Portfolio: The Gold Investor's Handbook

http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0969031939/ref=sib_dp_pt#reader-link

 

M&A Activity Picking up in Gold Junior Space

from The Motley Fool

A few weeks ago, B2Gold (NYSEMKT: BTG   announced a $570 million acquisition of Papillon Resources (NASDAQOTH: PAPQF  . This merger seems to me a very bullish sign for emerging gold producers. Papillon was taken out at about $125/oz of gold. That’s $125/oz of measured, indicated and inferred resource. Papillon’s asset is located in Mali — yes, that’s Mali the country in western Africa. The project could be in production as soon as the second half of 2016. Again, I find this deal to be very bullish for the gold sector. Paying $125/oz for a project that’s at least two years from initial production and that has significant geopolitical risks says a lot about the state of the gold market.

When I read the news, I figured that Papillon’s project must be spectacular in some way, perhaps very high-grade or ultra-low cost — but it’s not. The ore grade is mediocre at 2.35g/tonne and the all-in sustaining cost at $725/oz is pretty good, but far from spectacular. These deal metrics for an asset in Mali really surprised me. Digging deeper, I spoke to some analysts who said that although Mali has overall Africa risk and infrastructure challenges, it’s one of the better countries to do business in, for Africa at least. For some reason, that wasn’t entirely comforting.

Reading between the lines, the real story here is that mid-tier and major gold producers are starting to look at their production profiles from 2016-17 on. There are going to be shortfalls as significant amounts of high-cost operations have been curtailed and development of projects with all-in costs north of $1,000-$1,100/oz are on indefinite hold. The one good thing about the Papillon project is that it’s of meaningful size, forecasted to produce 300,000 ounces per year from 2017 on.

Takeaway?
I think this deal shows that the writing is on the wall: Companies need to acquire near-term production. If B2Gold was willing to pay $125/oz for a non-spectacular (my opinion only) asset in Mali, what does that say about the possible takeout value of assets in North America? More specifically, there are a number of highly promising, low-risk, near-production plays in Nevada that really stand out compared to B2Gold’s acquisition of Papillon. Names that come to mind include Pershing Gold  (NASDAQOTH: PGLC  ) and Midway Gold (NYSEMKT: MDW  ), both of which will be in production next year, and Midway as soon as late 2014. Pershing already has fully built, 100% owned and paid-for processing facilities and heap leach pads. It should be in initial production in the second half of 2015 with a remaining capital cost of under $20 million, according to a recent research report by Cantor Fitzgerald.

Cantor forecasts all-in sustaining costs for Pershing of roughly $750/oz and 85,000 ounces of production for the full year of 2016, ramping up to 100,000 ounces in 2017. Call me crazy, but I will take Nevada production all day long over any production anywhere in Africa. Pershing’s Relief Canyon project is a past-producing mine, it has three open pits, roads, and other infrastructure already in place. The overall risk of getting Relief Canyon into production compared to that of Papillon’s project reaching production on time and on budget is like night and day.

Analysts and gold market pundits have noted the increase in suitors kicking the tires of assets in Nevada. It’s merely a question of when, not if, a wave of M&A sweeps over the state. Some deals of distressed juniors may occur at cheap valuations, but companies with highly experienced management teams, strong projects, near-term production and tangible assets will not be sold at fire-sale prices. Companies like Pershing, which has zero debt and a solid balance sheet, and Midway, with ample cash after issuing shares and obtaining an attractive debt financing package, are gems that should be valued at a substantial premium to emerging producers in Africa.

 

 

 

B2Gold Update

B2Gold Announces Otjikoto Project Update

6 hours ago – ACQUIREMEDIA

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired - June 13, 2014) - B2Gold Corp.(TSX:BTO)(NYSE MKT:BTG)(NAMIBIAN:B2G) (“B2Gold” or the “Company”), is pleased to announce construction at the Otjikoto Mine in Namibia remains on budget and on schedule for completion in the fourth quarter of 2014. In addition the Company announces further high grade drilling results from the Wolfshag zone at Otjikoto.

Construction Update

Construction of the Otjikoto open pit gold mine remains on schedule to commence gold production in late 2014. All major excavations on the project are complete and the only substantial earthworks project remaining is the relocation of a gravel district road (scheduled to be completed in Q3, 2014). More than 16,000 cubic metres of concrete have been poured and less than 10% of the total volume remains outstanding. Steel erection continues on site and millwrights are currently installing the crusher and milling circuits. All material earthworks in the tailings pond have been completed and water has been captured from the rainy season to start the mill. Total employees and contractors on site now totals approximately 1,000.

Mining remains on budget with 2014 forecasts and more than 7.5 million tonnes have been moved since pit inception. The project team has recently begun to mine ore and is placing material on the stockpile in anticipation for start-up.

Based on the Feasibility Study, the projected average annual production for the first five years is approximately 141,000 ounces of gold per year at an average operating cash cost of $525 per ounce and for the LOM approximately 112,000 ounces of gold per year at an average operating cash cost of $689 per ounce. Total construction and development costs remain in line with the Otjikoto feasibility study released in February 2013, including pre-development costs of $244 million and deferred stripping estimates of $33 million. The Otjikoto feasibility study also assumed that a further $60 million in mobile mining fleet and power plant costs would be lease financed. Leasing arrangements were finalised in the fourth quarter of 2013 and will finance a total of $34 million of mobile mining fleet costs based on current foreign exchange rates. The balance of the fleet and power plant costs has been funded from the Company’s existing cash flows and credit facilities.

Given the discovery of the high grade Wolfshag zone near the planned open pit, the plant facility and support infrastructure will be built to support a plant expansion from the initial processing capability of 2.5 million tonnes per annum to 3.0 million tonnes. The increased throughput will be achieved through the installation of a pebble crusher, additional leach tanks and mining equipment at a total cost of approximately $15 million. Once the expansion is completed at the end of 2015, the Company expects that the annual gold production from the main Otjikoto pit would increase to approximately 170,000 ounces per year. The Company will rerun mine plans to include the higher grade Wolfshag zone.

Exploration Drill Results

The Company is also pleased to announce continued high grade results from the exploration drilling program on the recently discovered Wolfshag zone at its Otjikoto Gold Project in Namibia. The infill drilling on the Wolfshag zone continues to confirm the continuity of the main high grade shoots, WA and WB. The Wolfshag zone plunges at 10 to 15 degrees to the southwest and has been traced down plunge for 1,600 metres, and remains open to depth. Recent results are highlighted by hole WH14-162 which intersected 29.65 metres grading 9.53 g/t gold (7.70 g/t gold with assays capped at 45 g/t gold), including 15.30 metres at 17.34 g/t gold (13.78 g/t gold with assays capped at 45 g/t gold).

Drilling this year has concentrated on infilling the northern portion of the Wolfshag zone to allow for conversion of portions of the recently defined inferred resource of 6.8 million tonnes grading 3.2 g/t gold (703,000 contained ounces gold) (see B2Gold news release dated January 22, 2014) to an indicated mineral resource category. Conceptual studies for incorporation of the Wolfshag resource into the Otjikoto mine plan have started in support of the Otjikoto mine expansion. Results have been received from all but five holes of the exploration program completed to date. Select significant new results (uncapped) from the Wolfshag drilling include, from north to south:

--  WH14-155 with 8.95 metres at 4.37 g/t gold;
--  WH14-135 with 15.00 metres at 7.43 g/t gold, including 7.62 metres at
    12.91 g/t gold;
--  WH14-139 with 7.40 metres at 7.78 g/t gold; including 2.60 metres at
    11.07 g/t gold;
--  WH14-162 with 29.65 metres at 9.53 g/t gold, including 15.30 metres at
    17.34 g/t gold;
--  WH14-171 with 19.95 metres at 11.78 g/t gold; including 10.80 metres at
    20.58 g/t gold;
--  WH14-173 with 12.70 metres at 6.42 g/t, including 5.75 metres at 11.30
    g/t gold.
--  WH14-175 with 23.00 metres at 6.15 g/t gold, including 2.85 metres at
    19.09 g/t gold; and,
--  WH14-185 with 25.25 metres at 5.80 g/t gold, including 9.95 metres at
    8.49 g/t gold.

 

Exploration work is continuing on the Wolfshag zone with two drills currently active on infill drilling of the southern extensions of the zone to potentially allow for inclusion of this area into an inferred mineral resource class. Additional results will be released as they become available. Future work will continue to follow the Wolfshag zone at depth and to test several other targets and on the property.

2Gold's Quality Assurance/Quality Control

Quality assurance and quality control procedures include the systematic insertion of blanks, standards and duplicates into the core sample strings. The primary laboratory for Otjikoto is ALS Minerals in Johannesburg, South Africa, where samples are analysed by metallic screen fire assay and/or fire assay with atomic absorption finish and/or gravimetric finish using one assay tonne. Samples are prepared at ALS Minerals in Swakopmund, Namibia. Bureau Vertitas, Swakopmund, Namibia, is the umpire laboratory. All results stated in this announcement have passed B2Gold’s quality assurance and quality control (“QA/QC”) protocols. Tom Garagan is the Qualified Person as defined under National Instrument 43-101.

ON BEHALF OF B2GOLD CORP.

Clive T. Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer

For more information on B2Gold please visit the Company web site at www.b2gold.com.

This press release includes certain “forward-looking information” and “forward-looking statements” (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable Canadian and United States securities legislation, including statements regarding anticipated exploration and development activities, completion of construction and the timing and amount of projected production at the Otjikoto Project, other operational and economic projections, and other anticipated developments on the company’s properties

You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. B2Gold disclaims any obligation to update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, events or otherwise, except as required by law.

 

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
B2Gold Corp.


Source: B2Gold Corp.

Trading alert : BTO

Iamgold says no news pending; no reason for stock surge

03 Jun 2014 – Reuters
UPDATE 1-Iamgold says no news pending; no reason for stock surge(Adds details from market participants, trading data, background)By Euan Rocha and Nicole Mordant

TORONTO/VANCOUVER, June 3 (Reuters) – Canadian gold miner Iamgold Corp said it was unclear why its stock had surged in late afternoon trading on Tuesday, and stressed that the company had no news pending at this time.

Toronto and New York listed shares in the stock both surged at around 1400 ET (1800 GMT). The stock rallied as much as 16 percent, before closing the day up more than 12 percent on both exchanges.

Market sources, who asked not to identified as it is against their firm’s policy on comment on individual companies, said the move might be tied to speculation around Iamgold’s long-planned sale of its Niobec niobium mine in Quebec.

However, Bob Tait, the company’s head of investor relations, stressed that Iamgold has nothing imminent to announce around that asset sale process.

The market sources said the surge may also be tied to B2Gold Corp’s move on Tuesday to acquire Australia’s Papillon Resources in a bid to gain access to its Fekola gold deposit in Mali.

Iamgold also owns interests in assets in Mali and Burkina Faso and market participants said there is speculation that the B2Gold move could spur other companies focused on West Africa to make a move on Iamgold, whose share price has fallen more than 70 percent in the last two years as the price of gold has slid.

However, the B2Gold deal was announced before market open on Tuesday, and the rally in Iamgold’s share price and the uptick in trading volumes began only in afternoon trading.

Trading data indicates that the vast majority of the spike in buying volumes on Tuesday afternoon was driven by brokerage firm CIBC Capital Markets, with other large firms like Jennings, ITG and National Bank selling positions in Iamgold’s stock.

A spokeswoman for CIBC was not immediately able to comment on the trading moves.

TRADING ALERT BTO

I have bee a fan – the Company headed by the management team that built and then sold Bema Gold is building production by acquiring mines for shares – not cash,

A recent news story announced a new acquisition – from amongst hundreds reviewed by BTO .

Production to rise from 400,000 to 700,00 in 2017.

B2GOLD CORP(BTO:TSX, CA)

2.56CADIncrease0.07(2.81%)Volume: 
Above Average
As of 10 Jun 2014 at 9:47 AM EDT.

QUOTE DETAILS

Open 2.54 P/E Ratio (TTM) 36.0x
Last Bid/Size 2.55 / 548 EPS (TTM) 0.07
Last Ask/Size 2.56 / 1077 Next Earnings
Previous Close 2.49 Beta 1.61
Volume 2,219,571 Last Dividend
Average Volume 6,729,937 Dividend Yield
Day High 2.56 Ex-Dividend Date
Day Low 2.52 Shares Outstanding 676.0M
52 Week High 3.69 # of Floating Shares 645.097M
52 Week Low 1.87 Short Interest as % of Float
chart
1 Day|5 Days

The Gift Of 30 % Portfolio Profits – from Amazon.com

March 21, 2013

The Gift Of 30 % Portfolio Profits – from Amazon.com

March 21, 2013
AMP Gold and Precious Metals Portfolio: The Gold Investor's Handbook

 

Goldman Sachs Calls for Gold Tumble to $1000

Gold is getting more attractive to hedge-fund managers even as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the metal’s surprising rally this year will soon fizzle.

Hedge funds and other speculators expanded bets on higher prices for a fourth week in New York futures and are now the most bullish since December 2012, government data show. While gold is off to its best start in six years after topping $1,350 an ounce, Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie says chances are increasing that prices will slump to $1,000 for the first time since 2009.

This year’s 11 percent rally came amid signs of weakening U.S. economic growth and Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Investors who shunned the metal in 2013 are once more buying the biggest exchange-traded product backed by gold, with holdings poised for the first quarterly gain in a year. Hedge funds also are adding to bullish wagers on sugar, corn and coffee, driving combined wagers on a commodity rally to a record.

“The gains have been impressive,” said Chad Morganlander, a fund manager with Stifel Nicolaus & Co Inc. in New Jersey, which oversees about $150 billion of assets. “There’s been a perfect storm of geopolitical uncertainty as well as growth scares here in the U.S.”

Weekly Gains

Gold futures in New York climbed 1.3 percent last week, the eighth advance this year. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials rose 0.6 percent, while the MSCI All-Country World index of equities increased 0.3 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, slipped less than 0.1 percent and the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index dropped 0.7 percent.

The net-long position in gold climbed 3.8 percent to 118,241 futures and options in the week ended March 4, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short holdings declined 15 percent to 26,321, the lowest since October. Net-bullish holdings across 18 U.S.-traded commodities rose 9.7 percent to 1.59 million contracts, the most since the data begins in June 2006.

U.S. service industries, which range from health care to finance and make up almost 90 percent of the economy, grew last month at the slowest pace in four years, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed March 5. Holdings through gold ETPs rose in February for the first time since 2012. Assets in the SPDR (GLD) Gold Trust, the biggest such fund, are up 0.9 percent in 2014 after a 41 percent plunge last year that wiped $41.8 billion in value.

Billionaire Paulson

Billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson, who holds the biggest stake in SPDR, posted gains in his firm’s main strategies in February partly as bets on gold paid off.

Russia said it may cut off Ukraine’s gas supplies, and the U.S. has threatened more sanctions after authorizing financial restrictions last week. The escalating tension also drove up prices for energy and grains amid concern that supplies would be disrupted.

The turmoil in Ukraine doesn’t change Goldman’s bearish view on gold, and the recent weakness in the U.S. economy is probably weather driven, not “real deterioration,” said Currie, the bank’s head of commodities research. Lower mining costs mean it’s more probable than it was six months ago that prices will drop below $1,000, he said in an interview.

February Payrolls

American employers added more workers than projected in February, indicating the U.S. economy is starting to shake off the effects of the severe winter weather, government data showed March 7. The China Gold Association says demand in the nation is poised to drop to 250 metric tons this quarter, down 17 percent from a year earlier.

“Some kind of middle-ground solution in Ukraine is probably the case at some point,” said Rob Haworth, a Seattle-based senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees $115 billion. “For the two big commodities, oil and gold, we’ve probably seen relative highs for the next month. Once this geopolitical risk premium ebbs, I don’t see a lot of fundamental speculative support to push gold a lot higher.”

Bullish bets on crude oil rose 2.2 percent to 346,469 contracts as of March 4, the most ever in records going back to June 2006, government data show. West Texas Intermediate reached $105.22 a barrel in New York March 3, the highest since September. Russia is the biggest energy exporter.

The Gift Of  30 % Portfolio Profits  – from Amazon.com

AMP Gold and Precious Metals Portfolio: The Gold Investor's Handbook

 

 

 

The Impact of Federal Stimulus Measures on the Price of Gold

The Impact of Federal Stimulus Measures on the Price of Gold

 

Historically, the value of gold and fluctuations in its price have been linked directly to the wider economic performance. As a general rule, the value of gold tends to be most resolute during periods of recession, as investors look to commit their capital into physical assets that deliver genuine financial security.

 

The most recent statistics underline this trend, with the price of gold set the retreat from a near three-month high in the face of measured stimulus tapering in the U.S. A string of poor data releases had forced the government to initially reconsider their approach to stimulating economic growth, only for the Federal Reserve to reaffirm their commitment to restoring long-term growth.

 

The Facts and Figures: Gold Values in 2014

 

It was during the last week that the price of gold hit a three-month high, amid rising global shares and continued economic uncertainty in the U.S. While the Federal government had spoken at length during the first financial quarter about tapering their stimulus measures and laying the foundations for more sustainable, long-term growth, underperformance within the labour market has persuaded them to reconsider their stance. As a result on this, investors were encouraged to believe that the ultra-easy stimulus policy would continue for the foreseeable future.

Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen performed a sharp-about turn this week, however, by reiterating the U.S. Central Bank’s commitment to a measured tapering of its gold-friendly stimulus policy. While Yellen has stated that has a strong belief in the current bullion and monetary policy measures, however, the sudden drop in gold prices has forced many to question the wisdom of her decision making. More specifically, it could trigger a sudden rise in interest rates and force investors to develop a more risk-averse approach in the financial markets.

Does Gold Represent a Good Investment in 2014?

The decision to taper bullion stimulus measures will only serve to undermine the appeal of gold as an investment opportunity still further. While the presence of under-employment may have caused growth in the labour market to slow, investors have continued to disregard this and similar macroeconomic factors as being insufficient to derail the tentative global recovery. This has had a direct impact in reducing the appeal of gold, and the sudden depreciation in value will force a growing number of investors to consider alternative precious metals and commodities.

If it would be fair to say that gold holds minimal investment appeal as we approach the second financial quarter of this year, however, it is worth considering the performance of additional market options such as silver and platinum. The former, which has experienced considerable growth during the last eighteen months fell by 0.3% in the wake of recent events, while the latter gained a respectable 0.1% amid global political issues. The upshot of this appears to be that investors are likely to avoid the precious metal market for the foreseeable future, at least until the U.S. economy has adapted to its new monetary policies.

Canaccord Precious Metals Update

JUNIOR PRODUCER Q4/13 SCORECARD: RECALIBRATING OUR PRICE
DECK TO THE FORWARD CURVE
 For the junior precious metal producers, we have calibrated our forecasts to our updated forward curve price deck, consistent with the deck used for the senior producers.

 Our revised price deck is summarized below. Since our last update in October 2013, the long-term forward gold price has declined 3%, from $1,439/oz to $1,391/oz. Curve pricing for major by-products copper and silver have also declined, approximately 4% and 9%, respectivel.
 On the other hand, we have seen a year-to-date recovery in junior gold equity prices as highlighted by an 18% increase in the GDXJ (surprisingly outperforming the gold price which is up only 4%). We believe this reflects renewed investor interest in the space, capital inflows into the gold sector and likely increased levels of investor risk tolerance. While we have maintained the upper end of the range of target multiples for junior producers at 1.1x, we have increased the lower end of the range from 0.4x to 0.5x, reflecting increasing levels of investor risk tolerance for equities with operational/financial challenges.
 We remain positive on bullion longer term, but see the potential for significant volatility in the gold price over the next 12 months. While we see greater upside to gold equities relative to bullion, we continue to recommend investors stay defensive and choose quality over leverage. We favour companies with quality assets, strong balance sheets and relatively lower risk profiles –
i.e., producers that could generate and grow free cash flow even in the current depressed gold price environment.
Rating changes in this report include Argonaut Gold (BUY from Hold), Endeavour Mining (BUY from Speculative Buy), Fortuna Silver (BUY from Speculative Buy), and Sandstorm Gold (BUY from Speculative Buy).

Target prices have been revised lower for most stocks under coverage with the exception of higher target prices for NGD, AR, AUQ, DGC and PAA. Canaccord Genuity Canadian Focus List Picks include B2Gold, Primero Mining and Fortuna Silver Mines.
 Our Q4/13 estimates have been updated to reflect actual metal prices during the quarter and pre-released operating results. In general, we are expecting a sequential and y/y decline in earnings (due to lower gold and silver prices). Our Q4/13 EPS estimates are notably below consensus for NGD, AUQ, EDV and PAA.

 The Gold Investor’s Handbook “ by Jack A. Bass, B.A. LL.B.

( available from Amazon)

1oz 1984 Krugerrand Transferred from en.wikipedia1oz 1984 Krugerrand Transferred from en.wikipedia (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

1oz 1984 Krugerrand Transferred from en.wikipedia (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Why Invest in Gold and Gold Stocks – and Why Now ?

Historically, gold has been a proven method of preserving value when a national currency was losing value. If your investments are valued in a depreciating currency, allocating a portion to gold assets is similar to a financial insurance policy. In the past year, the climb in the price of gold above $1600 per ounce is due to many factors, one being that the dollar is steadily losing value.

  • The dollar is weak and getting weaker due to national economic policies  like quantitative easing , which don’t appear to have an end.

Barrick Gold SELL

ABX : TSX : C$19.82
ABX : NYSE
SELL 
Target: C$17.50

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Barrick is the largest gold producer in the world and has
a portfolio of operating mines and development projects
located in the United States, Canada, Australia, Peru,
Chile, Argentina, and Tanzania. In 2012, the company’s
operating mines produced 7.42 million ounces of gold, at
total cash costs of $584 per ounce.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
FORECAST 2014 PRODUCTION 11% DOWN,  RESERVE LOSSES AT 18%
Investment recommendation
Our target price has been revised from C$20.50 to C$17.50 to reflect the
recent shift lower in the gold forward curve and to reflect our estimate
of potential reserve and mine plan changes at YE13. This report
provides an analysis of potential YE13 reserve changes on an asset by
asset basis. Based on the implied negative return to target, we have
revised our rating on Barrick from Hold to SELL.
Investment highlights
 Barrick is developing new mine plans to reflect a lower gold price
environment and maximize cash flow. We estimate 2013 gold
production at 6.36mozs, 11% lower sequentially. Cash operating
costs are expected to be only modestly lower at ~$585/oz.
 We estimate that operating reserves (excluding development assets)
will have declined ~18% at year-end. While reserve grades could
potentially increase ~11%, we note that Barrick has been mining
~19% above reserve grade over the past four years.
 Our 2013 EPS and CFPS estimates have been revised to $2.30 (from
$2.32) and $3.23 (from $3.07), respectively.
Valuation
We have revised our target price from C$20.50 to C$17.50, which is
predicated on an above sector average 0.90x multiple to our forward
curve derived operating NAVPS estimate of C$22.34 (from C$25.65) plus
net debt and other assets. Our target multiple fully reflects Barrick’s
numerous positive attributes; we just do not see the value proposition
for Barrick at current metals prices. Barrick is currently trading at a
27% premium to its gold peers on NAV. Near term positive free cash
flow is expected to be largely utilized to finish constructing Pascua.

 

Tahoe Resources Inc.

THO : TSX : C$19.93
TAHO : NYSE
BUY 
Target: C$27.00
COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Tahoe Resources’ key asset is its 100% owned flagship Escobal mine in Guatemala. Escobal is one of the world’s highest grade and largest primary silver deposits. Silver production is expected to ramp quickly and exceed 20mozs per annum for a period of at least 10 years with a stated goal of 20 years. Cash operating costs are forecast to be near or below $5.00/oz of silver net of gold, zinc and lead by-product credits.

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION Q1/14E
Investment recommendation
We reiterate our BUY rating on Tahoe Resources following the release of Q3/13 results. We believe the key driver of Tahoe’s share price over the next six months will be the successful ramp up of Escobal to full production and we see no major impediments. THO is currently trading at 0.75x NAV, a 3% discount to its large cap peers. We believe THO should trade at a strong premium given the forecast industry leading margins, strong governance and alignment, and overall asset quality.
Investment highlights
 The ramp-up to commercial production is proceeding well with all major mill components fully commissioned. The key remaining priorities are improving concentrate specs and tailings filtration; fixes have been implemented and appear to be working. The mill operated near 50% of capacity in the first 10 days of November vs. 30% in October. We estimate commercial production in mid-Q1/14.
 Guidance for 2014 calls for 18-21mozs silver in concentrate (including pre-commercial production) versus our previous estimate of 15mozs. Cash costs are estimated to be $5.65-6.25/oz versus our previous estimate of $4.02/oz (using the same by-prod prices). The current cash balance of $39 million appears adequate. Our 2014 EPS estimate remains unchanged at $1.00.
 Management confirmed the potential for an inaugural dividend; potentially by the AGM in May 2013. We believe an initial dividend of $0.50/share (implying a 2.5% yield) may be achievable in the context of current silver prices. The current short position on THO is 22.5 million shares.
Valuation
Our C$27.00/share target is predicated on a 0.95x multiple to our forward curve derived operating 5% NAVPS estimate of C$26.32 plus net debt and other assets.

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