Gold Downside Risk Seen As : ‘Significant’

 The author of The Gold Investors Handbook says the worst isn’t over yet for gold after prices erased  this year’s gain.

“Risks are significantly skewed to the downside,” said Bass, who told investors to sell last year before gold’s biggest collapse since 1980. “Much of the support was coming from political uncertainty in Ukraine and what was going on in Middle East,” and those concerns have faded, he said in a telephone interview yesterday.

After bullion’s rally in the first half of the year beat gains for commodities, equities and Treasuries, the metal is heading for a quarterly decline to end out 2014. Demand for precious metals as a protection of wealth has been eroded by the outlook for a strengthening U.S. economy, which helped spark a rally in the dollar .

Gold fell to an eight-month low this week after the Federal Reserve  raised its outlook for interest rates, crimping demand for an inflation hedge. Money managers cut bullish holdings for five weeks, while holdings through global exchange-traded funds slumped to the lowest since 2009.

“Gold is more responsive to the near-term growth momentum in the U.S., rather than long-term inflation concerns,” Damien Courvalin, a Goldman analyst, said . “Interest is lower in gold than it was say 18 months ago.”

Dollar Rally

. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials slid 5.2 percent in 2014, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 3.7 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 4.3 percent.

Bass isn’t alone in predicting the end to this year’s rebound that drove the best first-half performance for gold since 2010. Societe Generale SA’s Michael Haigh, who also correctly forecast 2013’s slump, said in a report this month that he expects the metal will drop more than 5 percent by 2015’s third quarter. Investors, who in June and July were adding to bullish wagers, may be starting to agree with analysts, taking their short holdings on the metal to the highest in three months.

Muted Inflation

After 12 straight years of gains, gold tumbled 28 percent in 2013 as an equity rally and muted inflation prompted some investors to lose their faith in the metal.

Bass on April 10, 2013, issued a sell recommendation, before a two-day 13 percent plunge that ended April 15, 2013, and left prices in a bear market. The slump wasn’t foreseen by most money mangers, who had increased their bullish bets by 11 percent the prior month. The investors cut holdings to a six-year low by December.

Now, Currie expects bullion to drop to $1,050 by the end of 2015, maintaining a forecast from the start of the year. SocGen’s Haigh sees prices at $1,150 in the third quarter next year, he said in a report e-mailed Sept. 12. The metal reached this year’s peak of $1,392.60 in March amid violence in Ukraine.

Citigroup Inc.  lowered its forecast for next year amid expectations of U.S. rate increases, while the “risk-related source of support has been diminished.” The bank cut its outlook to $1,225 from $1,365. UBS AG reduced it three-month outlook yesterday by 7.7 percent to $1,200.

Target Price

“Turbulence is still there, but is not escalating any further, which we believe will help gold decline to our target,” Courvalin said.

“Our inflation forecasts are pretty subdued,” Bass said.

Inflation expectations, measured by the five-year Treasury break-even rate, this week reached the lowest since June 2013.

 

“Ultimately, what drives fair value for gold prices is the U.S. real interest-rate environment,” Courvalin said.

 

It is human nature to look for bargains - and destroy your portfolio as you gather losers into what used to be a ” nest” egg.

Look at Seeking Alpha and count the ” analysts” saying Dryships ( DRYS) is going to turn – how none forecast the sub dollar level it now enjoys.

What To Do ?

Here is our recent letter:

Managed Accounts Year End Review and Forecast

November 2014 – 40 % cash position
Gold and Precious MetalsThe largest gains for our clients came from the exit from the gold producers at $18oo an ounce and continuing until we hold no gold and no gold miners . This from the author of The Gold Investors Handbook.2015 – We continue to be on the sidelines for this sector – regardless of the gnomes of Switzerland . As a safe haven gold simply wasnot there for investors despite turmoil in the Middle East, Africa and Ukraine.How much more frightening can the prospect for peace be than to have wars in multiple locations? Secondly the spectre of inflation – on which I have given numerous talks – simply failed to materialize. In fact economists and portfolio managers such as myself are now more concerned about deflation – and the spectre is a Japanese style decades long slide in the world economy.
Shipping Sector / Bulk ShippersYou can review our stock market letter athttp://www.amp2012.com to follow our profits in the shipping sector before our retreat as overcapacity has yet to effect continued overbuiding. In 2008-9 rates-  illustrated by the Baltic Dry Index – were at their peak. The BDI hit over 10,000. Today it is roughly 10 % of that benchmark and the sector slide continues. We have an impressive watchlist of former ” darlings” – but we are content to watch and wait.
Oil/ EnergyI am very happy for the call in natural gas prices – out at $12 and into oil. When oil was above $100 we lessened positions and that is our saving grace in the past two weeks. We are not bottom feeders and will wait for a turn in the market before reentering drillers or producers.On Friday November 27th, crude oil prices dropped to below $72 and the slide has continued into the weekend, with Brent crude oil at $70.15 as I write this post. Shares of major oil companies traded down on Friday. Our former energy sector holdings are down another between 4% and 11%, including SDRL, which dropped another 8% following Wednesday’s 23% plunge…

Have you avoided these sectors – you would have been better off to follow our advice in 2014 and now you have to decide for 2015.
No one – and I am not being humble here – can project the future with great accuracy but our clients continue to do very well and we offer that experience to you.

Fees : 1 % annual set up and a performance bonus of 20 % – only if we perform.

You can withdraw your funds monthly if you require an income stream.

Alternate Guaranteed Income Payments

Private client funds Minimum $10,000 Maximum Loan $500,000

Our client is seeking funds to expand their tanker fleet .

Interest 12 % compounded – paid 1% per month

Floating charge of the full $500,000 against the fleet – valued at  more than $ 1 M

 

Contact information:

To learn more about portfolio management ,asset protection, trusts ,offshore company formation and structure for your business interests (at no cost or obligation)

Email

jackabass@gmail.com OR

info@jackbassteam.com  OR

Call Jack direct at 604-858-3202

10:00 – 4:00 Monday to Friday Pacific Time ( same time zone as Los Angeles).

Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.

Tax website  Http://www.youroffshoremoney.com

 

Lor Loewen's photo.

Sell signals from Eric Sprott

Sell signals from Eric Sprott according to information published by the Canadian Insider, Mr. Sprott has made four separate sales since the end of September. In all, Mr. Sprott sold 375,000 units at prices ranging from US$10-to-US$9.44.

 

Bloomberg Despite those four sales – which resulted in gross proceeds of US$3.6-million — Eric Sprott still has almost US$35-million of skin in the game.

Over the past six weeks, Eric Sprott — one of the country’s best known gold bugs — has been selling units in the Sprott Physical Gold Trust, a fund formed to hold physical gold.

A

Here are the details: Sept. 30 (15,000 at US$9.96 per unit); Oct. 2 (40,000 at US$10); Oct. 31 (210,000 at US$9.62) and Nov. 6 (110,000 at US$9.44.) Despite those four sales – which resulted in gross proceeds of US$3.6-million — Mr. Sprott still has almost US$35-million of skin in the game. According to the most recent filing on SEDI, he owns 3.49 million units in the fund.

Related
Barrick Gold co-president joins insider buying spree
The gold mining meltdown is so bad even activist investors won’t touch it
Sprott adds to investment management team in Toronto, New York
In its IPO, the fund raised US$442.5-million. Since then it has been back to the market on six separate occasions and has raised almost US$2-billion. Its most recent offering was in September 2012.

Glen Williams, a spokesperson for Sprott, said in an email message. “We don’t comment on Eric’s personal trading activity but Sprott’s view on gold is unchanged.” Another Sprott source said that Eric has been using the proceeds to invest in gold and silver equities which offer greater leverage.

********

Gold-Mining Industry Mostly ‘Under Water,’ Gold Fields

Gold miners’ costs are mostly higher than current spot prices, increasing the likelihood of writedowns next year, according to Nick Holland, chief executive officer of Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI)

Across the industry, costs are about $1,300 an ounce including debt repayments, Holland said by phone from Johannesburg today, citing analysts’ research. Gold dropped 0.1 percent to $1,182 an ounce, bringing the decline since the beginning of 2013 to 29 percent.

“The industry by and large is under water,” Holland said. “I would expect further writedowns. Production I think will be curtailed but it will take some time to filter through the system.”

Gold producers are struggling to adapt to a lower bullion price after a decade of debt-fueled expansion, acquisitions and cost inflation during the boom years that saw bullion peak at $1,921.17 an ounce in September 2011. The spot price has tumbled in the past 18 months as investors speculate the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates due to an improving U.S. economy, lowering demand for the safe-haven metal.

Gold Fields is able to “ride this through” as it has a break-even price of about $1,050 an ounce, or $1,090 an ounce including debt repayments, Holland said. While the company calculates its reserves at $1,300 an ounce, that number includes a 15 percent profit margin, he said.

“Everything is fine for now, obviously the margin won’t be 15 percent at the current price, it will be less than that,” Holland said. “That said, the business continues to be run the same as before.”

Profit Drop

Gold Fields dropped 4.8 percent at 9:16 a.m. today in Johannesburg after the precious metal fell 1.2 percent yesterday, largely after South African trading hours. The FTSE/JSE Africa Gold Mining Index decreased 5.1 percent to 1,091.8.

Headline earnings for the South African producer with mines from Peru to Australia were $14 million in the three months to Sept. 30, compared with $18 million the previous quarter, it said in a statement today.

The Johannesburg-based company, which spun off three of its cash-generative but old South African mines to create Sibanye Gold Ltd. last year, is seeking to “aggressively” pay down debt over the next three years as it adjusts to the lower gold price, Holland said. The company is also on the lookout for cheap, in-production acquisitions that more troubled miners are offloading.

Gold Fields reduced net debt in the quarter by $137 million to $1.5 billion. All-in sustaining costs for the year are expected to be 3 percent lower than previous forecast at $1,090 an ounce, it said.

Gold production rose 2 percent to 559,000 ounces in the quarter compared with the previous three months, the company said.

IAMGOLD Corporation

CAVEAT: long time readers are aware that I am the author of The Gold Investors Handbook and have been a seller of all gold and gold stocks from $ 1800 until today.
This shift out of gold and out of shipping has allowed Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts to prosper – our position remains very cautious to both sectors preferring to maintain watch lists rather than positions.

IMG : TSX : C$2.17
IAG : NYSE
HOLD 
Target: C$3.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
IAMGOLD is an intermediate gold company which
produced 764,000 oz in 2013 at a total cash cost of
$796/oz. Its key producing mines include Rosebel (95%)
in Suriname and the Essakane mine in Burkina Faso. Key
development projects include the Westwood (100%)
project in Quebec. Its key non-gold asset is the 100%-
owned Niobec mine in Quebec, which produces niobium.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals

TAKE A KNEE OR HAIL MARY?

Investment recommendation
At lower gold prices the operating outlook for IAMGOLD is not
favourable and based on the third quarter results the situation is even
more concerning. Grade control issues at Rosebel are expected to persist
into YE and management’s ability to fully fix the problem is unknown.
Near $1,100/oz we believe Rosebel may generate negative FCF. At
Westwood, IMG continues to evaluate different production profiles to
conserve development capital that could result in a slower ramp-up. At
Essakane, the Q3 results provided an insight into longer-term operating
costs for the hard rock expansion and the cost structure looks to be 5%
higher than anticipated. At all three core operations, there appears to be
limited opportunity to materially improve costs structures to defend
against a declining gold price environment.
IAMGOLD faces a fork in the road – utilize the Niobec windfall to pay
down debt and survive in a low gold price environment, or take a long
shot by purchasing a transformative asset (or possibly a combination of
both). In a low gold price environment, neither option will likely be
applauded by the market.
Investment highlights
 Q3/14 adj. EPS of $0.00 vs. CG at $0.01 and consensus of $0.03.
IMG generated positive ($55m) operating FCF for the first time in
two years. We forecast $16m in Q4/14 or negative $26.4m in FCF
(incl. G&A, expl., int. and ex Niobec). In this note we deconstruct
quarterly cash flows by assets.
Valuation
We have revised our target price to C$3.00 from C$4.25. Our target is
predicated on a 0.5x (from 0.6x) multiple to our forward curve derived
operating NAV of C$5.21/sh plus net cash and other assets of C$0.44/sh.
Our low target multiple reflects higher operating, financial, political
(Burkina Faso instability) and acquisition risk.

Silver Wheaton Corporation BUY Target Price $29

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
SLW : TSX : C$21.51
SLW : NYSE
BUY 
Target: C$29.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Silver Wheaton is uniquely positioned as the purest silver
producer. The company’s asset base consists of silver purchase
agreements with the San Dimas and Penasquito mines in Mexico,
Pascua-Lama project in Chile/Argentina, Zinkgruvan mine in
Sweden, Yauliyacu mine in Peru, Stratoni mine in Greece. Most
recent streaming deals with Hudbay minerals (silver and gold
streams at 777 and Constancia) and Vale (gold streams at
Salobo and Sudbury mines).
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

STRONG MOMENTUM INTO Q4
Investment recommendation
Silver Wheaton remains the preferred vehicle for exposure to silver
given the strong growth profile, margins, liquidity and diversification.
Further accretive streaming transactions are possible over the next 12
months, although new equity should be expected for larger transactions.
SLW is currently trading at 1.20x its forward-curve-derived NAV,
modestly above the silver producer group, but below SLW’s royalty
peers. Our NAV continues to assume a 25% permitting/development risk
discount for Pascua and Rosemont. We maintain our BUY rating.
Investment highlights
 SLW reported Q3/14 adjusted EPS of $0.20, in line with our
estimate and consensus. While attributable AgEq production was
below expectations (8.4 vs. 9.2Moz), a 1.3Moz inventory drawdown
resulted in sales beating our estimate (8.7 vs. 8.4Mozs).
 SLW wrote-down Mineral Park $37.1m following Mercator Minerals
Chapter 11 filing, and Campo Morado $31.1m given questionable
viability of the satellite resource base (metallurgy and low prices).
We have removed Mineral Park from our valuation and reduced our
Campo Morado’s valuation by 70%. Overall, these two small streams
are non-core and have limited impact on SLW’s overall profile.
SLW’s key streams remain well insulated to lower prices.
 SLW made a final $135m payment to Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T,
BUY, covered by Gary Lampard) relating to the Constancia gold
stream. While the payment was expected, SLW paid through the
issuance of 6.1m shares (dilution of 1.9%) rather than cash. The
preference for equity is understandable with the net debt to EBITDA
at 1.66x, which may not be high relative to SLW’s producing peers,
and is easily manageable, but remains high for a royalty company.
Both Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold have net cash positions.
Valuation
We have revised our target price to $29.00 from $30.00. Our target
remains predicated on a 1.55x multiple to our fwd. curve derived
5%/operating NAVPS estimate of C$20.02 (previously C$20.76) less net
debt and other corporate adjustments.

Gold Tumbles With Silver to Lowest Since 2010 – $1,000 Gold ?

Gold and silver slumped to the lowest level since 2010 as the dollar strengthened after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly boosted unprecedented stimulus and the Federal Reserve ended asset purchases.

Bullion for immediate delivery lost as much as 2.6 percent to $1,167.49 an ounce, the lowest since July 2010, and traded at $1,177.26 at 4:13 p.m. in Singapore, Bloomberg generic pricing shows. Silver slid as much as 3 percent to $16.0009 an ounce, the lowest since February 2010. They fell as the dollar rose to the highest in more than six years against the yen.

The Fed is weighing the timing of interest-rate increases as other central banks add to stimulus to boost their economies. The Bank of Japan said it’s targeting an 80 trillion yen ($726 billion) expansion in the monetary base, up from 60 to 70 trillion yen before. Gold yesterday erased the year’s advance after U.S. gross domestic product beat estimates and China probed a surge in precious-metals exports.

“People are generally looking at the direction of the dollar, which moved higher against the yen after the BOJ announcement, although the news itself is neutral for gold,” said Wallace Ng, a Shanghai-based trader at Gemsha Metals Co. “A higher dollar depresses prices and sentiment in the gold market was already weak because of the Fed.”

Bullion is heading for a decline of 4.4 percent this week, the most since September 2013. The metal is also set for the first consecutive monthly loss in 2014. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust shrank for a third day to 741.2 metric tons yesterday, the least since Oct. 2008.

Double-Whammy

Gold rose 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed bought debt and held borrowing costs near zero percent. Prices slumped 28 percent last year, the most in three decades, on expectation that the central bank will scale back its bond-buying program that was put in place to fuel growth while failing to stoke inflation.

The U.S. central bank, which has held its key rate at zero to 0.25 percent since 2008, this week cited an improving job market in deciding to end bond buying, while maintaining a commitment to keep rates low for a considerable time. It also said inflation is running below its 2 percent target.

“Precious metals cratered, hit by a double-whammy of the rather hawkish Fed policy statement, coupled with a stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP report,” Edward Meir, an analyst at INTL FCStone Inc., wrote in a note. “Gold is again confronting the specter of a stronger dollar, rising equity prices and tame inflation, a trifecta that does not bode well for price prospects going into 2015.”

Futures for December delivery fell as much as 2.7 percent to $1,166.20 an ounce on the Comex inNew York, the lowest level since July 2010, before trading at $1,175.80.

$1,000 Gold

The collapse of oil prices into a bear market amid rising global supplies has also cut inflation concerns. The chances of bullion dropping to $1,000 are increasing as cheaper energy “means lower inflation and adds to the bearish gold story,” said Michael Haigh, head of commodities research at Societe Generale SA, who correctly forecast the metal’s 2013 rout.

The bank isn’t alone in predicting more losses for gold, which is Morgan Stanley’s least preferred metal. Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of commodities research who also correctly forecast 2013’s slump, said last month that the worst isn’t over yet for gold. He expects prices to drop to $1,050 by the end of year.

Concern that demand may falter in the world’s largest users also hurt prices. China sent investigators to probe a seven-fold surge in September’s precious-metals exports. In India, the biggest consumer after China, imports are set to drop in October after a more than four-fold jump last month.

Gold of 99.99 percent purity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the benchmark, sank as much as 3.1 percent to 230.05 yuan per gram ($1,172.35 an ounce), the lowest level this year. Volumes tumbled to a one-month low today.

Silver for immediate delivery slid 2.4 percent to $16.1078 an ounce, set for a fourth monthly decline that’s the worst run since June 2013. An ounce of gold bought as much as 73.3154 ounces of silver today, the most since April 2009.

Spot platinum decreased as much as 1.8 percent to $1,223.05 an ounce, the lowest since Oct. 6. It’s heading for a fourth month of losses that’s the longest stretch since June 2013. Palladium slipped 0.1 percent to $779.67 an ounce.

Gold Plunges

Gold Heads for Biggest Drop in Three Weeks as Fed Ends QE

Gold prices fell as the Federal Reserve ended its bond-purchase program, cutting demand for the metal as hedge against inflation.

The Fed maintained its pledge to keep interest rates near zero percent for a “considerable time,” while citing improvements for the American labor market as it ended its asset buying at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting today.

“People will not see the need for gold in an environment of low inflation and solid job growth,” Chris Gaffney, the senior market strategist at EverBank Wealth Management in St. Louis, said in a telephone interview. “While it was expected, the ending of the asset-purchase program added to the negative sentiment.”

Bullion fell to this year’s low on Oct. 6 amid waning demand for a store of value. Holdings in global exchange-traded products backed by gold are at the lowest in five years, and measures of volatility for the metal have pared recent gains. The U.S. economy isn’t in danger of a major pullback even as Europe languishes and China’s growth slows, Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said today.

Gold for immediate delivery dropped 1 percent to $1,215.69 an ounce at 2:16 p.m. New York time, heading for the biggest drop since Oct. 3. Prices touched $1,215.47, the lowest since Oct. 8.

Bullion climbed 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the U.S. central bank bought debt and held borrowing costs near zero percent in a bid to shore up growth. Prices slumped 28 percent last year partly because the gains for consumer prices investors were concerned about after the increase in money supply failed to materialize.

Low Inflation

Fed policy makers said that while inflation in the near term will probably be held down by lower energy prices, it repeated language from its September statement that “the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat.”

Inflation expectations, measured by the five-year Treasury break-even rate, this month reached the lowest since October 2011.

Gold prices will drop to $1,050 over the next 12 months as the U.S. economy accelerates,Jack A. Bass, author of The Gold Investors Handbook has said.

Gold Action/ Direction Continues Down : Braggin’ Rights To JAB Part 2

You can review my past articles to confirm my calls:

1) BUY when gold was below $ 900

2) Steady reductions in all positions for Jack A. Bass Managed Funds

from $ 1800 til today.

Friday morning Oct .3 gold fell $20 an ounce – our accounts are smiling – gold bugs are crying conspiracy 

 

THIS Is What We Wrote Last Week

 

Now What ?

We continue to see more downside risk in the next several days

 

: ” as the next major level of support is 1,180 & if that price level is broken prices could slide rather dramatically. Gold prices settled last Friday at 1,216 finishing slightly lower for the trading week as volatility has certainly increased as prices were up $20 a couple of days back on the news of the coalition & the United States bombing ISIS but then prices came right back down as I still think lower prices are ahead as there’s no reason to own gold right now especially with a very strong U.S dollar so continue to play this to the downside making sure you place your stop above the 2 week high.”

No stocks are being spared .

In my book ” The Gold Investors Handbook” – available on Amazon – I pick B2Gold ( BTO) as my top junior . It moves lower and is so very tempting but there is no way to call a bottom. Wait and buy when there is a turn rather than catch all the falling knives.Use the book to develop your own gold watchlist . In the meantime there are so many better places to earn money with less risk.

The ever lower prices for Yamana are almost painful to watch – but there is less pain in the sideline compared to watching your portfolio wither away.

It is criminal in my less than humble opinion the Sprott and Peter Schiff continue to urge investors to buy into the conspiracy theory of manipulation of the commodity price. The printing press in the U.S. runs at full speed 24 hours a day – but the fact is there is still no inflation and no inflation on the horizon. This undermines a central argument for owning gold. Mining costs continue to escalate and thus pressure mining returns at lower commodity prices.

Even the Ukraine and Middle East turmoil and have not proved to be much of a factor to boost gold as a safe haven in times of trouble. Gold bugs are reduced to hoping the stock market stops its advance and the economic recovery in the U.S. runs out of steam.Right now dividend paying stocks in a recovery are more attractive than the gold sector.

The Challenge – a guarantee of a minimum of 12 % for your annual investment return

Investors and pensions need efficient methods to screen, research, perform due diligence and monitor managers in their quest to deliver returns. They need to know the data they are using is accurate and fresh — and represents the best options available worldwide across every asset class. They must take into account their own assets and liabilities and the impact to portfolio risk while screening strategies and tracking exposures. They also need polished reports and presentations to provide evidence of a sound, inclusive selection processes for regulators and committees.

Placing these decisions in Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts removes the work from your hands to ours .

Meeting the Challenge

Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts offers a comprehensive suite of solutions for screening and monitoring, as well as risk assessment leveraging the data of the most important databases. In fact, 89% of surveyed clients agree that Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts helps them save their time during the due diligence process, while 75% of pension clients agreed .

The answer to When? – is always NOW ! – not tomorrow.
Contact Information

Information must proceed action and that is why we offer a no cost / no obligation inquiry service if you are not already a client.

Email info@jackbassteam.com OR

Call Jack direct at 604-868-3202 Pacific Time 10:00- 4:00 Monday to Friday

( Same time zone as Los Angeles)

Gold Action/ Direction Continues Down : Braggin’ Rights To JAB

You can review my past articles to confirm my calls:

1) BUY when gold was below $ 900

2) Steady reductions in all positions for Jack A. Bass Managed Funds

     from $ 1800 til today.

 

Now What ?

We continue to see more downside risk in the next several days- from The Crude Oil Trader blog this quote which I second: ” as the next major level of support is 1,180 & if that price level is broken prices could slide rather dramatically. Gold prices settled last Friday at 1,216 finishing slightly lower for the trading week as volatility has certainly increased as prices were up $20 a couple of days back on the news of the coalition & the United States bombing ISIS but then prices came right back down as I still think lower prices are ahead as there’s no reason to own gold right now especially with a very strong U.S dollar so continue to play this to the downside making sure you place your stop above the 2 week high.”

No stocks are being spared .

In my book ” The Gold Investors Handbook” – available on Amazon – I pick B2Gold ( BTO) as my top junior . It moves lower and is so very tempting but there is no way to call a bottom. Wait and buy when there is a turn rather than catch all the falling knives.Use the book to develop your own gold watchlist . In the meantime there are so many better places to earn money with less risk.

The ever lower prices for Yamana are almost painful to watch – but there is less pain in the sideline compared to watching your portfolio wither away.

It is criminal in my less than humble opinion the Sprott and Peter Schiff continue to urge investors to buy into the conspiracy theory of manipulation of the commodity price. The printing press in the U.S. runs at full speed 24 hours a day – but the fact is there is still no inflation and no inflation on the horizon. This undermines a central argument for owning gold. Mining costs continue to escalate and thus pressure mining returns at lower commodity prices.

Even the Ukraine and Middle East turmoil and have not proved to be much of a factor to boost gold as a safe haven in times of trouble. Gold bugs are reduced to hoping the stock market stops its advance and the economic recovery in the U.S. runs out of steam.Right now dividend paying stocks in a recovery are more attractive than the gold sector.

The Challenge – a guarantee of a minimum of 12 % for your annual investment return

Investors and pensions need efficient methods to screen, research, perform due diligence and monitor managers in their quest to deliver returns. They need to know the data they are using is accurate and fresh — and represents the best options available worldwide across every asset class. They must take into account their own assets and liabilities and the impact to portfolio risk while screening strategies and tracking exposures. They also need polished reports and presentations to provide evidence of a sound, inclusive selection processes for regulators and committees.

Placing these decisions in Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts removes the work from your hands to ours .

Meeting the Challenge

Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts offers a comprehensive suite of solutions for screening and monitoring, as well as risk assessment leveraging the data of the most important databases. In fact, 89% of surveyed clients agree that Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts helps them save their time during the due diligence process, while 75% of pension clients agreed .

The answer to When? – is always NOW ! – not tomorrow.
Contact Information

Information must proceed action and that is why we offer a no cost / no obligation inquiry service if you are not already a client.

Email info@jackbassteam.com OR

Call Jack direct at 604-868-3202 Pacific Time  10:00- 4:00 monday to Friday

( Same time zone as Los Angeles)

China Data Signals Slowing Economy – Commodities Update – Oil, Iron Ore, Gold, Nickel, Copper

Copper lead most industrial metals lower after factory and retail-sales data signaled further slowing in China, the world’s biggest user.

Copper in London fell as much as 1 percent, while aluminum, nickel, lead and tin also declined. Industrial-output growth in China was the weakest in August since the global financial crisis, while investment and retail sales moderated, figures released Sept. 13 showed. Factory data due today from the U.S., the second-biggest metals user, will probably indicate activity in August slowed from the previous month, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“The Chinese data over the weekend came in worse than expected,” Daniel Hynes, an analyst at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said by phone from Sydney. “It’s not surprising the base metals are weaker on the back of it.”

Copper for delivery in three months on the LME fell to as low as $6,770.75 a metric ton, the lowest intraday level since Sept. 11. Prices were down 0.5 percent at $6,804 a ton by 3:16 p.m. Hong Kong time, poised for the lowest close since June 19.

In New York, the December-delivery contract dropped 1 percent to $3.077 a pound, while in Shanghai the metal for delivery in November fell 0.4 percent to close at 48,380 yuan ($7,877) a ton.

Industrial output in China rose 6.9 percent from a year earlier in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sept. 13. That’s down from 9 percent in July and the slowest pace outside the Lunar New Year holiday period of January and February since December 2008, based on previously reported figures compiled by Bloomberg.

On the LME, lead fell 0.6 percent to $2,110 a ton, while aluminum declined 0.4 percent to $2,020.50 a ton.

Vale’s View

Iron ore may rise to as much as $100 a ton by the end of the year because of declining inventory at ports, Vale Chief Executive Officer Murilo Ferreira told reporters on Sept. 12 in Beijing. Some producers are reducing exports given current prices, Ferreira said. China is the world’s largest buyer.

In China, there’s mounting evidence locally-mined supplies are starting to drop, Morgan Stanley’s Crane wrote. Output, when adjusted to show the equivalent of 62 percent content, fell 13 percent between April and July year-on-year, he said.

“Market participants appear split on the floor price,” Australia & New Banking Group Ltd. analysts including Mark Pervan wrote in a report today. While some are “thinking the resilience of Chinese iron ore supply will see prices fall below $80 a ton, while others firmly believe domestic output can’t sustain current price levels for much longer.”

Expanding Glut

Iron ore prices are unlikely to recover as the global surplus expands, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Sept. 10 report. The bank reduced its price forecast for the final three months of 2014 by 10 percent to $90, and also reduced full-year estimates for 2016 and 2017.

The structural nature of the surplus and a weak demand outlook in China make a recovery in prices unlikely, Goldman analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai wrote in the report. The global glut will more than triple to 163 million tons in 2015 from 52 million tons this year, and widen further to 245 million tons in 2016 and 295 million tons in 2017, it said

Oil Supply

Brent fell to $96.27 a barrel after settling at its lowest level since June 2012 amid concern global fuel consumption is slowing while output climbs. West Texas Intermediate crude sank 1 percent to $91.34 today, after slipping 0.6 percent Sept. 12. The International Energy Agency cut its global oil-demand forecast for 2015 last week.

Russia’s ruble slid as much as 0.5 percent to 37.0380 per dollar, a record low, before trading at 37.985. The euro bought 49.2745 rubles, the most since Sept. 1. The Micex Index climbed 0.2 percent in Moscow.

Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange fell to $6,802.75 a metric ton, following last week’s 2 percent retreat. Lead dropped 0.6 percent to $2,108 a ton.

Gold for immediate delivery increased 0.4 percent to $1,234.98 an ounce after closing last week at $1,229.65, the lowest since Jan. 9.

Palladium climbed 1.3 percent to $848.50 an ounce.


2014-08-13 Reuters Gold Poll

Reuters quarterly interviews analysts to gather their gold price prediction. We have collected the forecasts made in 2014 and conclude that the sentiment has stabilized but the expectations for 2015 remain low.

THOMSON REUTERS 2014 Avg Gold Price Prediction 2015 Avg Gold Price Prediction No of Analysts interviewed
Q1 Poll Jan 2014 $1,235 37
Q2 Poll Apr 2014 $1,278 $1,250 28
Q3 Poll July 2014 $1,277 $,1250 31

 Nickel Falls a Fifth Session Amid China Slowdown Signals

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) — Nickel and aluminum fell for a fifth session in London as industrial metals declined after factory and retail-sales data added to evidence of a slowing economy in China, the world’s biggest consumer. Copper slid.

Chinese industrial-output growth in August was the weakest since the global financial crisis, while investment and retail sales moderated, figures showed. Factory data due today from the U.S., the second-biggest metals user, will probably indicate activity in August slowed from the previous month, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“Weak Chinese data weighed on base-complex prices,” RBC Capital Markets Ltd. said in a note today. Commodities slumped to the lowest level in more than five years.

Copper for delivery in December lost 0.8 percent to $3.081 a pound by 8 a.m. on the Comex in New York.

The metal for delivery in three months fell 0.4 percent to $6,808 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and lead touched the lowest price since June. An index of the six main metals traded on the LME slid the most since March last week.

Industrial output in China rose 6.9 percent from a year earlier in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sept. 13. That’s down from 9 percent in July and the slowest pace outside the January-February Lunar New Year holiday period since December 2008, based on previously reported figures compiled by Bloomberg.

“Prices may well weaken further,” William Adams, an analyst at Fastmarkets.com in London, said in a note today. “We saw last week a combination of weakness and bouts of scale-down buying, and we feel we may see more of the same this week, especially in those metals that have seen strong price gains in recent months.”

Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME fell 0.1 percent to 156,375 tons, daily data showed. Orders to take the metal from warehouses rose to 40,250 tons on bookings in New Orleans and are up 40 percent in three sessions, the most since April 2013.

Tin and zinc declined in London.

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