Google Update

Shares in Google have dropped 5% despite the technology giant reporting a first-quarter profit rise of 3%.

Profits were $3.45bn (£2.05bn), but investors are preoccupied by Google’s inability to maintain advertising prices.

A widely watched measure, the average “cost per click”, was down 9% from a year earlier.

Another weak spot highlighted in the report was the firm’s discounted sale of Motorola Mobility to Lenovo.

Google sold the smartphone maker to Lenovo in January for close to $3bn, after paying $12.5bn for the firm less than two years ago.

Despite investors’ reaction, Google’s chief executive, Larry Page, was upbeat: “We completed another great quarter,” he said in a statement.

“We got lots of product improvements done, especially on mobile. I’m also excited with progress on our emerging businesses.”

However, Google continues to struggle with its ability to charge advertisers higher prices for mobile ads, which are increasingly important with more and more consumers accessing Google’s browser through their smartphones.

Advertisers have proven reluctant to pay as much for ads on mobile screens compared to Google’s bread-and-butter desktop ads, which have been the main revenue generator at the firm.

Rates for mobile ads can be half as much as on personal computers, according to Needham & Co analyst Kerry Rice.

However, Google expects mobile ad prices to catch up with PCs eventually as it becomes easier for consumers to buy products using mobile devices, Google chief business officer Nikesh Arora said.

‘A little bit dodgy’

Google has greatly diversified its portfolio of products in recent years, speculatively branching out into phonesdronesGoogle Glass, and even thermostats and fire alarms, CNet technology analyst Larry Magid said.

“Some of these crazy ideas need to become less crazy and more profitable,” he told the BBC. “Their core business, what really brings in the money, that’s beginning to get a little bit dodgy for them.”

Google’s results were not the only ones to disappoint investors on Wednesday.

Technology giant IBM reported its lowest quarterly revenue in five years.

IBM attributed the drop in revenue, which went down 4% to $22.5bn, to weak hardware sales.

Enterprise technology spending has shifted away from traditional computing giants as governments and corporations move towards online services, large-scale data analysis and IT security, FBR analyst Dan Ives said.

Google – Adjusting for Stock Splits

GOOG : NASDAQ : US$543.14
BUY 
Target: US$700.00

Technology — Internet
ADJUSTING MODEL AND PRICE TARGET FOR STOCK SPLIT
Key points
 We are adjusting our estimates and price target purely to reflect
Google’s previously announced 2-for-1 stock split.
 Class A shares will trade under the new ticker GOOGL, while Class C
shares will assume the GOOG ticker. Newly issued shares going
forward will be Class C shares. Class A shares will have one vote
each, while the non-traded Class B (management) shares will have
10 votes each.
 Given that Class C GOOG shares should be more liquid than Class A
GOOGL shares and that there is a “make-good” provision in place to
close any potential value spread arising from the voting
discrepancy, we do not expect a significant spread to materialize
between the Class A and Class C shares.
Estimate changes
We are adjusting the number of shares to incorporate the stock
dividend. As a result, our share count goes to 685m, 689m and 693m
from 342m, 344m, and 346m in 2014, 2015 and 2016. As a result, our
non-GAAP EPS estimates go to $28.52, $33.61 and $39.01 from $57.04,
$67.22, and $78.02 in 2014, 2015 and 2016.
Valuation
We maintain our BUY recommendation and cut our price target from
$1,400 to $700 to adjust for the stock split. Our new target is based on
21x (unchanged) our 2015 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $33.61 (adjusted
from $67.22).

Google PLUS $1000

GOOG : NASDAQ 
BUY 
Target: US$1,000.00 PLUS

Technology — Internet
SOLID Q3 RESULTS
Summary
Google reported solid Q3 results that beat consensus for revenue and EPS by a few percent despite intra-quarter concerns that the rollout of Enhanced Campaigns would negatively impact advertiser behavior in the quarter. Websites revenue growth accelerated despite continued CPC shrinkage and made up for a big deceleration in Network revenue. With many investors already expecting a strong Q4 from EC impact, getting past this potentially bumpy Q3 with a solid set of results should allow the stock to work well through year-end.
Key points
 Bullish – Websites revenue growth accelerated to 22% from 18% in Q2 (albeit against an easy comp); positive TAC developments – network TAC was 70.5% of revenue, down from 72.3% in Q2 despite weaker Network revenue, which typically sheds low-TAC partners, and Web sites TAC was 8%, flat with Q2 and better than our estimate.
 Bearish – CPCs shrunk another 8% y/y as mobile/EC transition continues; Network revenue growth slowed to near zero y/y, decelerating sharply from a weak 7% in Q2; MMI lost >$300 million.
 Estimate changes – We are changing our 2013/2014/2015 combined gross revenue estimates to $59.4B/$67.8B/$77.9B from $59.4B/$68.6B/$78.6B and increasing non-GAAP EPS estimates to $44.37/$53.14/$64.04 from $43.99/$52.54/$62.99.
Valuation
We raise our price target to $1,000  PLUS from $940. Our new target is based on 19x (up from 18x) our slightly higher 2014 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $53.14 (up from $52.54).

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Building Your Apprentice

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 All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

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All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

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Jack A. Bass (Author)

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Google BUY Target Price $ 940

Google 貼牌冰箱(Google Refrigerator)

Google 貼牌冰箱(Google Refrigerator) (Photo credit: Aray Chen)

GOOG

 NASDAQ : US$910.68
BUY 
Target: US$940.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Google owns the world’s largest search engine, some of the most visited websites on the web, including YouTube.com, as well as the telecommunications equipment corporation Motorola Mobility. Google generates the vast majority of its revenue through advertising on the web and mobile devices.

Summary


Google’s Q2 results saw both revenue and EPS below consensus. Q2 and Q3 seem like quarters of transition, first to a new Enhanced Campaign
paradigm for AdWords, and to a better user experience (and slower growth) for Google Network. We remain attracted to secular positives,
while recognizing that Google’s admirable quest to stay young and innovative may continue to push out realization of an “optimal” model.
The next chapter may be a big hardware cycle, which could draw questions about structural margins. However, we continue to like Google’s dominant competitive position in a large and growing market.
Key points
Bullish – Enhanced Campaigns now represent 75% of all AdWords campaigns, showing fast adoption; Android continues its massive climb with ~900 million activated devices; Web sites TAC slowed its pace of expansion at only 8.0%, up from 7.9% in Q1, the smallest expansion in years.
Bearish Revenue and profitability miss; 6% CPC decline despite adoption of Enhanced Campaigns; self-inflicted slowdown in Google
Network growth should persist for two more quarters, along with an associated pick up in Google Network TAC to over 72% of revenue
compared to long-time run-rate of ~70%.
 Estimate changes – We lower our 2013/2014/2015 combined gross revenue to $59.4B/$68.6B/$78.6B from $61.7B/$71.5B/81.6B, and
non-GAAP EPS to $43.99/$52.54/$62.99 from $46.72/$56.48/$64.82.
Valuation
We raise our price target to $940 from $890 as we roll over to 2014E EPS. Our new target is based on 18x our slightly lower 2014 EPS estimate of $52.54.

 

Google Stealth Climb

Google 貼牌冰箱(Google Refrigerator)

Google 貼牌冰箱(Google Refrigerator) (Photo credit: Aray Chen)

GOOG :

NASDAQ : US$805.85)
Let me Google this for you.

While all eyes have been on Apple’s (AAPL) decline over the past six months, Google has quietly seen its shares appreciate by more than $125, finally crossing the $800 mark on Tuesday.

The most recent leg of the rally started late last month after Google reported solid Q4 results. Earnings were $10.65 per share on revenue of $12.9 billion (ex-Motorola) while analysts were expecting $10.58 on $12.73 billion (ex-Motorola). Canaccord  Analyst Michael Graham notes that paid click growth remained strong despite volume-limiting policy changes.

Additionally, Nexus smartphone device sales appeared strong in the quarter while Motorola margin dilution continued to move out of the picture. IN Graham’s most recent monthly review, he noted that his screen on Google improved due to some upward estimate revisions following the
earnings release and accelerated growth interest while short interest continues to decline. Some positive metrics: core U.S. search queries grew 11% from the prior year, the first sign of growth in five months and comScore reported that traffic to Google Sites grew by 4% in December.

Graham believes investors have regained high hopes for Google for 2013 after a solid  Q4 report, and he notes the potential for significant multiple expansion if the company continue to instill confidence with another quarter or two of stable, predictable results.

Humana (HUM : NYSE : US$73.19), Net Change

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