Rates of Return – Guarantees for Speculation ?

A surprising number of emails ask if I can guarantee a set rate of annual return for a stock market account.

They want to earn the 4 % a month which is the most recent return based on the current portfolio choices.We’d all like to see that return forever and a day – without risk – but that is not what history teaches.

Only Bernie Madoff offered such a guarantee – and that only was implied- not written – by a false set of records .

In general the great potential of the stock market is offset by risk .

To avoid risk consider the current returns I can offer ANY investor:

1) leave all your money in cash under the mattress – safe unless thee is a house fire- but zero return and actual negative the rate of inflation.

2) Bank savings accounts – U.S. and Canada – 2 % – about equal to the rate of inflation.

3) Bonds – 3% little better than inflation and now some risk when the Fed starts the ” taper “

4) Real estate – current projects with which I am familiar  6 % annually plus the appreciation of the property.

5) Promissory notes – a rate equal to Second Mortgages – currently 12 % and the risk is the quality of the guarantee.

Paid monthly at the rate of 1 % you can earn a compound rate and lessen the total exposure.

Renewed every 12 months so you can withdraw all or a portion of funds.

6) Stock market – unlimited potential but a risk that there is a market down turn of 30 or greater per cent.

You can elect to receive 1 % or more as a MONTH as a withdrawal to lessen your exposure.

Managed Accounts require a six month notice to withdraw but that is a formal requirement only to prevent a
” run” if there is a sharp turn in the market.

For assistance at obtaining the rates set out in items 3 to 6 please email info@jackbassteam.com or call Jack direct at 604-858-3202 ( same time zone as Los Angeles)

 

Amazon Gains $3 billion – in nearly free money

The tech giant has quietly raised capital — at almost no cost- Praise The Fed

FORTUNE — While online shoppers were gobbling up e-deals on Cyber Monday, Amazon once again demonstrated its appetite for capital. It raised $3 billion in debt at ultra-low interest rates. Spread across three tranches of bonds that mature over 6 ½ years, Amazon will pay an average of 1.6%, which makes the loan nearly cost-free to Amazon, factoring in inflation. The unexpected debt-capital raise, Amazon’s first in 15 years, double’s Amazon’s cash stockpile. (The Wall Street Journal has a lot of the facts here.)

The swift move got me wondering what Amazon (AMZN) will do with the money. There are obvious starting points. Amazon recently cut a deal to buy its currently leased Seattle headquarters buildings for a bit more than $1 billion. It’s an odd decision, but Amazon is an odd company. It is investing heavily in new warehouses, the better to offer speedier delivery to customers, particularly in locations where Amazon recently has begun collecting state sales taxes—something it probably should have been doing all along. In my recent interview with Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos he deflected the question of whether Amazon wants to offer same-day delivery, saying the company hasn’t figured out how to make such a service economical. He said it’s hard enough investing simply to push back in the day when Amazon cuts off taking new orders.

MORE: Amazon’s Jeff Bezos: The ultimate disrupter

Given its size and growth, it’s also astounding that Amazon sells in just nine countries: the U.S., Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Counterintuitively, Bezos notes that Amazon is investing particularly aggressively at the moment in Spain and Italy. New regions are a natural place for Amazon to invest its cash.

Amazon obviously continues to invest heavily in its Kindle line, which is showing itself to be a worthy competitor to Apple (AAPL) and tablets that use Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system. (The Kindle Fire uses a version of Android too.) Amazon’s Lab126—it’s Kindle design center in Cupertino, Calif.—recently listed more than 200 open job positions.

Then there are Amazon’s many business lines, many of which compete against each other. To get a sense of the breadth of Amazon’s disparate businesses. I made a list of the 25 brands Amazon links to at the bottom of its U.S. home page, including, with one exception, the way Amazon describes them:

AbeBooks. Rare books and textbooks.

Amazon Local. Great local deals in your city.

Amazon Supply. Business, industrial and scientific supplies. (beta)

Amazon Web Services. Scalable cloud services.

Amazon Wireless. Cellphones & wireless plans.

Askville. Community answers.

Audible. Download audio books.

BeautyBar.com. Prestige beauty delivered.

Book Depository. Books with free delivery worldwide.

CreateSpace. Indie publishing made easy.

Diapers.com. Everything but the baby.

DPReview. Digital photography.

Fabric. Sewing, quilting and knitting.

IMDb. Movies, TV & celebrities.

Junglee.com. Shop online in India.

Myhabit. Private fashion designer sales.

Shopbop. Designer fashion brands.

Soap.com. Health, beauty and home essentials.

Wag.com. Everything for your pet.

Warehouse Deals. Open-box discounts.

Woot. Beta deal site. [My description. Amazon's is so confusing it defies description.]

Yoyo.com. A happy place to shop for toys.

Zappos. Shoes & Clothing.

Vine.com. Everything to live life green.

Casa.com. Kitchen, storage & everything home.

Amazon acquired many of these brands, like Audible, Zappos and IMDb. Some of the sites are clear copycats of more successful startup companies that Amazon hasn’t yet bought. Amazon includes a link at the bottom of its home page to its “Internet-based ads” business, a very real attack on the online advertising industry. It makes no mention of the robotics company it acquired this year, Kiva Systems, which continues to maintain its own web site and gives the appearance of serving non-Amazon customers.

So, how can Amazon spend $3 billion? Let us count the ways.

Available Now at AMAZON.COM ( go to books )

The Gold Investor’s Handbook – click here for   more detail on the in’s and outs of investing in gold

Long Term Themes for The AMP

stock market

stock market (Photo credit: 401(K) 2012)

Nov 12

Long Term Investment  Themes

- governing selections for for both current publications The Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio and    The Gold Investor’s Handbook

AND for both blog sites ( http://www.amp2012.com and  www.ampgoldportfolio.com)

The single most important theme is the long term outlook for interest rates and the supporting policy of central banks around the world.

Markets are ignoring this idea. They do not want to accept a very-low-interest-rate policy for a protracted period of time. Markets are also ignoring the fact that the same policy is in play in nearly all major mature economies of the world

What Will This Low Interest Rate Climate Bring to your AMP Portfolio?

1) Rising stock markets – in general – specifics as per our books

2) Real estate recovery( already underway in SOME locations.

3) Precious metals and other hard assets are an alternative to low rates for the bond market and will attract more attention. Future inflation fears will attract more investment from individuals . Central banks will increase their gold reserves

What Must YOU Do ?

Take action- don’t sit wringing your hands about inflation, the fiscal cliff or the number of homes needing electricity. Study the market opportunities available and build your portfolio.

The Gold Investor’s Handbook – click here for  investment profits and much more detail on the ins and outs of investing in gold 

AND Give The Gift Of Money This Christmas

All You Need To Succeed –

in 500 pages of Investing Strategy

and Selections Available now at Amazon .com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Those who have been wringing their hands about the big inflation, rising interest rates, weakening dollar, fiscal cliff, tax policy and the election rhetoric have missed markets. They now have an entry opportunity if they did not take advantage of it in the past.

Related articles

Barry Ridholtz Forecasts Stagflation – and a tough market ahead

Go Away Federal Reserve System!

Go Away Federal Reserve System! (Photo credit: r0b0r0b)

The market diary -results and predictions:

1)The Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ and SNB will continue to print huge amounts of money, CHECK.

2)Earnings growth globally is slowing with GDP and we’ve seen the peak in profit margins, CHECK.

3)Election is over, DC doesn’t change, taxes are going up at exactly the wrong time, CHECK. An entry today: 1)stop saying “Uncertainty” as the only thing that is certain is uncertainty. 2)stop saying “fiscal cliff” as until market based solutions come to medicare, medicaid and social security, the can will get kicked all over the place and well passed any supposed ‘deal’ in the next two months. 3)Oh yeah, stop saying “kicking the can down the road.”

Bottom line, the stock market correction is not over, earnings will continue to slow, higher taxes of any kind in 2013 will bring a US recession, central banks will print more money (but can’t prevent a cyclical bear market after the near 3 yr bull run) and 2013 will be the most challenging both economically and from a market perspective that we’ve seen in a few yrs. Stagflation here we come is my call. Buy the flation and sell the stag.

Inflation means that gold will rise:

The Gold Investor’s Handbook – click here for  investment profits and much more detail on the ins and outs of investing in gold

and from Kiron Shankar

The European Court of Auditors reported, once again, the the EU made material errors in spending, amounting to 3.9% of its budget. The report will add to the pressure to limit the EU’s budget and will be good news for the Euro sceptics. The UK, in particular, wants a freeze (at worst) in the EU’s budget and the UK PM has little flexibility, given the recent Parliamentary vote (non binding) that he must obtain a cut in the EU budget, let alone a freeze. There is an increasing possibility that the UK will have a referendum as to its continued participation in the EU;

The UK PM meets Mrs Merkel today to try and agree on the EU budget ahead of the 22/23rd November meeting. The EU has proposed a rise of 6.0% in its 2014 to 2020 budget (they have suggested that EU countries cut back on their budgets, by the way), though Mr Cameron wants a freeze, at worst. The Germans have proposed that the EU budget is limited to 1.0% of the EU’s GDP;

The German’s plan of continuing to push austerity is unsustainable. As you know, I expect more pro growth policies, quite possibly as early as Q1 next year. The impact of fiscal multipliers is worsening the fiscal position of countries including Greece, Spain and Portugal and arguably France. This nonsense has to end. The clear downturn in Germany may well be the trigger for a change in policy

German September industrial production (seasonally adjusted) came in at -1.8% M/M, much worse than the -0.7% expected and -0.5% in August, which is yet another confirmation the recent weaker economic data, other than domestic consumption, which to date is holding up, though for how long;

The EU has forecast that the French economy will grow by +0.4% next year (half that forecast by the French) – personally, I expect the French economy to decline next year, especially if current policies are maintained. They added that whilst France should achieve its budget deficit target of -4.5% of GDP this year, it will be higher than the -3.0% next year (-3.5% expected). Personally, I believe that France will find it near impossible to meet even the -3.5% budget deficit forecast next year, based on current EZ policies. I continue to believe that France is the real big problem in the EZ, far more so than Italy (similar to Spain) – so long as the Italians deal with their political issues;

The EU forecasts that 2012 GDP will contract by -0.25% this year, with the EZ to decline by -0.4%. The EZ’s 2013 forecast has been slashed to just +0.1%from +1.0% previously - still too optimistic, based on current policies. Inflation is expected to decline to +1.8% in 2013, in line with previous forecasts, with 2012 inflation at +2.5%, rather than +2.4% previously. They have raised the Spanish budget deficit to -8.0%, much higher than the -6.3% target. Basically, a much weaker EZ economy in 2013 – why is anyone surprised. Indeed, unless policies change, a much worse outcome is likely;

Societe Generale on Debasement Of Currency By the Central Banks

English: Two hot-air balloons from Societe Gen...

English: Two hot-air balloons from Societe Generale and Rhein Energie Deutsch: Zwei Heißluftballons von Societe Generale und Rhein Energie Français : Deux montgolfières, l’une Société Générale l’autre Rhein Energie. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

October 27

the Societe Generale author is Dylan Grice

I am more worried than I have ever been about the clouds gathering today (which may be the most wonderful contrary indicator you could hope for…). I hope they pass without breaking, but I fear the defining feature of coming decades will be a Great Disorder of the sort which has defined past epochs and scarred whole generations….

So I keep wondering to myself, do our money-printing central banks and their cheerleaders understand the full consequences of the monetary debasement they continue to engineer?

He runs through some of the Great Debasements of the past, starting with third-century Rome, running through Europe’s medieval inflations and the French Revolution, to the monetary horror story of Weimar Germany in the 1920s.

His key point is that inflations and hyperinflations don’t just hurt money, they hurt people and the societies they live in. Inflating money is less trustworthy money, and so people doing business trust each other less. Plus, those who are farthest from the source of artificially created money suffer the most (the “Cantillon effect”).

And now the social debasement is clear for all to see. The 99% blame the 1%, the 1% blame the 47%, the private sector blames the public sector, the public sector returns the sentiment  the young blame the old, everyone blame the rich  yet few question the ideas behind government or central banks …

I’d feel a whole lot better if central banks stopped playing games with money….

All I see is more of the same – more money debasement, more unintended consequences and more social disorder. Since I worry that it will be Great Disorder, I remain very bullish on safe havens.

In just 10 days we will see how the US elections turn out. Depending on what happens after, the US will either remain as one of those safe havens (and perhaps become even more of one) or those of us who reside here will need to start thinking more globally. I know a lot of thoughtful people who are already contemplating (if not acting on) plans to make sure their life savings maintain their buying power through the coming decade. I remain optimistic that we will set ourselves on a course that ends in a safe harbor, although the sailing will be quite volatile. What Dylan describes are the unintended consequences of people who think they understand macroeconomics and who are well-intentioned but whose policies can be most disruptive.

Click here for for much more detail on the ins and outs of investing in gold.

The Euro Crisis Country By Country Review

Spanish PM  Zapatero press briefing

Spanish PM Zapatero press briefing (Photo credit: London Summit)

Spain is not Greece” – Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance Minister, February 2010

Portugal is not Greece” – The Economist, April 2010

“Greece is not Ireland” – George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance Minister, November 2010

“Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal” – Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance Minister, Nov. 2010

“Ireland is not in ‘Greek Territory’” – Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, November 2010

“Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland” – Angel Gurria, Secretary-General OECD, Nov. 2010

“Italy is not Spain” – Ed Parker, Fitch MD, June 12, 2012

“Spain is not Uganda” – Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy, June 2012

“Uganda does not want to be Spain” – Ugandan foreign minister, June 13, 2012

” The national budget must be balanced.The public debt must be reduced; the arrogance of the authorities must be reduced, if the nation doesn’t want to go bankrupt. People must again learn to work,instead of living on public assistance.”  –  Cicero ,  (106- 43 B.C. )

            Having been to all the countries listed above, with the exception of Uganda (although I have been to 15 countries in Africa, several bordering Uganda), I am most happy to confirm that they are all different. Just as you would grant me the fact that the US is not the UK and that France is not Argentina. To paraphrase Tolstoy, dysfunctional countries come by their unhappy sets of circumstances in their own individual ways.

            How does one go about comparing the financial crisis in one country to that of another? The International Monetary Fund tried to do just that, setting off a rather torrid debate in economic circles. And while we will look today at their analysis, the upshot is that the economic models used to guide monetary and fiscal policy may not be working as they did in the past. Last week in this letter, I postulated a condition I called the Economic Singularity. Just as the singularity at the center of a black hole creates a region where mathematical models break down, a large mass of debt will create its own Economic Singularity where economic models no longer work as expected.

The Bottom Line for Investors :

1)Expect The Headlines To Continue and To Upset The Market

2)Place your faith in gold / money – not in politicians

3) Learn how to invest in gold with ” The Gold Investor’s Handbook ”  $19.95 from Amazon.com

U.S. Housing -: No Recovery ? – A Subsidized Bounce

Wipe our Debt

Wipe our Debt (Photo credit: Images_of_Money)

October 21

Instead of actual responsible behavior of paying down debt, the primary if not only reason there has been any “deleveraging” at all at the US household level, is because of excess debt which became insurmountable, not because it was being paid down, the result of which is that more and more Americans are simply handing their keys in to the bank and walking away, and also explains why the US banking system is now practicing Foreclosure Stuffing, as defined first here, as the banks know too well, if all the housing inventory which is currently in the default pipeline were unleashed, it would rip off any floor below the US housing “recovery” which is not a recovery at all, but merely a subsidized bounce, as millions of units are held on the banks’ books in hopes that what limited inventory there is gets bid up so high the second housing bubble can be inflated before the first one has even fully burst.

hyperinflation

The Automatic Earth

Naturally, two concurrent housing bubbles can not happen, Bernanke‘s fondest wishes to the contrary notwithstanding, especially since as shown above, US households do not delever unless they actually file for bankruptcy, and in the process destroy their credit rating for years, making them ineligible for future debt for at least five years.

It is thus safe to say that all the other increasingly poorer US households [..] are merely adding on more and more debt in hopes of going out in a bankrupt blaze of glory just like everyone else: from their neighbors, to all “developed world” governments. And why not: after all this behavior is being endorsed by the Fed with both hands and feet.

The following graph from TD Securities ( through Sam Ro at BI ) makes a good case for the “subsidized bounce” definition Durden applies to the present US housing market. It’s no secret there’s a huge shadow inventory overhanging US housing, and now it comes out that those great new home numbers are not what everybody would like to think they are.

hyperinflation

The Automatic Earth

Many more houses are built than sold. And get shoved on top of the pile that’s already there, both the shadow inventory and the out of the closet one. Which begs the question: how long does a home stay in the “new” category? Does it take 1 year of staying empty for it to move to “existing”? 2 years, 3 years? 5? For one thing, builders and developers certainly have a huge incentive to continue to advertise it as new.

A graph from the same source:

hyperinflation

The Automatic Earth

How this constitutes a recovery I just can’t fathom. I think that is just something people would like so much to see that they actually see it. Moreover, there remains the issue that it’s very hard for most to comprehend what debt deflation is, what its dynamics are, and what consequences it has.

How Bernanke Is Pushing Stocks Higher

1-fed

1-fed (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sept. 17

 

Stocks Get A Double Kick

The Fed is enlarging the duration of its balance sheet and thereby altering the market’s clearing mechanism. Thus, long duration asset prices are expected to rise. That means US treasury bond yields are expected to fall. But global sellers may have other things in mind. They now suspect the US dollar will weaken and therefore they want to exit their holdings. When they do that, the yields on those instruments will rise and the prices fall if the global sellers sell more in a given period than the Fed is buying. This is the tradeoff we cannot estimate. Only time will tell.

So the volatility in the bond market is rising and will continue to do so. That is what happens when you mess around with duration.

Stocks are a very long duration, variable rate, asset class. They also have the ability to adjust to the inflationary outcomes that this extraordinary Fed policy can deliver. American stocks can state their foreign earnings in US dollar terms. Therefore a weakening US dollar means they will report higher earnings. Thus stocks get a double kick from this policy. They benefit from the weak dollar earnings translation and they benefit from the Fed duration switch.

That explains the market’s reaction to the Fed’s announcement. US long treasury yields rose, not fell. Stocks rose.

We can affirm this reaction by digging into the market.

The cap-weighted S&P 500 average was up 4.49% from Labor Day weekend until the September 14 close. The top 100 are found in an ETF; its symbol is OEF. It was up 4.30%. Remember, it is the larger companies that get the biggest kick from the weaker dollar. So we would expect OEF to trade closely with SPY (the symbol for the S&P 500). It did.

Contrast that with RWL. It is the symbol for the revenue-weighted S&P 500. These are same stocks but with a different weighting method. If the Fed’s policy is expected to result in more inflation, there will be a greater impact on the revenue side, with top-line growth. We should see that expectation show up in the market, where we track revenue weightings vs. cap weightings. It did. RWL was up 5.13% vs. SPY up 4.49%. Note also that risk-taking is broadening in the stock market. We see that by examining RSP. It is the equal-weighted version of the 500 Index. It was up 5.61%.

Let me be very clear. I disagree with this Fed policy move. It was not my first choice. I think the Fed is now playing with fire. But our job is to manage portfolios and not to make policy. If the Fed is now in QE infinity and if the Fed is now buying duration from the market at a rate faster than the market is creating it, then we want to be on the bullish side of that trade. Our US stock accounts are nearly fully invested. Our bond accounts are avoiding the longer-term treasuries and are using them as hedging vehicles. Our international accounts have been realigned accordingly.

The Bible says that Job was tested to his limits. In the next few years the financial and investing world will be tested, too.

QE 3 – The Chief Benefit – Raising Inflation

Liar Ben Bernanke

Liar Ben Bernanke (Photo credit: Ondrej Kloucek)

The Apprentice Millionaire Program Watchlists performed well after Ben Bernanke / The Fed announcements.

September 14,2012

The reality is that the quantitative easing is a spent force. What potential house buyer is moved to action if rates drop one-tenth of one per cent or even two-tenths. What employer will hire – regardless of bank rates , if there is no appreciable upturn in demand for his products.

Banks will have billions more in cash on deposit at the Fed because the demand remains sub-par .

Where then is the effect to be seen.

Resource stocks enjoyed a great end-of -the week because ultimately all those trillions will boost inflation. The place to save your portfolio and sanity is to own the oil, gold etc that will keep pace with real buying power .

Start with building your own safety net in a portfolio hedged against  the almost three  trillion dollar U.S. debt impacting assets denominated in U.S. dollars.

“I think the Fed will likely continue easing until it’s unequivocal that the unemployment rate is on a permanent downward trajectory and is no higher than the mid-to-low 7-per-cent range, accounting for a cyclical correction (up) in the labour force participation rate,” said senior economist Michael Gregory of BMO Nesbitt Burns.

“It will likely take sustained payroll job growth well above 200,000 [a month] to accomplish this, and some time to get there – perhaps by 2014 … The Fed is going to throw the veritable kitchen sink of policy measures at ensuring economic growth becomes both ‘substantial’ and ‘sustainable.’

The precious metal charts are forming bullish formations as their 50 day moving averages are moving to penetrate the 200 day moving average to the upside. Let us look at the gold miners (GDX). At $52 this has broken out and formed a strong bottom, our near term target is $60. The (GDXJ) is also breaking out at $24 and breaking through resistance.
Read our AMP Sector recommendations in your copy of  The Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio ( available at Amazon.com )

 
Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Oil and Gold Rally With Q3

Modern-day meeting of the Federal Open Market ...

Commodities surged to a five-month high after the Federal Reserve announced a third round of fiscal measures to bolster the U.S. economy, fueling expectations that raw-material use will increase.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials rose 0.6 percent to settle at 687.22 at 3:59 p.m. New York time. Earlier, the gauge reached 689.22, the highest since April 5. The measure climbed for the sixth straight session, the longest rally since July 19. Silver and gold gained the most in 10 weeks, leading the rally.

The Fed plans to expand holdings of long-term securities with open-ended purchases of $40 billion of mortgage debt a month. The benchmark interest rate probably will be held near zero “at least through mid-2015,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today. The GSCI index surged 92 percent from December 2008 through June 2011 as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing.

“That’s a commodity owner’s dream come true in terms of open-ended quantitative easing,” Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, said in a telephone interview.

This year, the GSCI index has gained 6.6 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of equities has climbed 12 percent and. Treasuries returned 1.7 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index showed.

Gold Rally

Gold futures for December delivery jumped 2.2 percent to settle at $1,772.10 on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain since June 29, as investors bought the metal as a hedge against inflation. Earlier, the price reached $1,775, the highest for a most-active contract since Feb. 29.

“Gold, in a way, is a pure currency, and that makes it the most interesting and the most favored when we see this type of situation” with quantitative easing, Sterling Smith, a futures specialist at Citigroup Global Markets in Chicago, said in a telephone interview.

Silver futures for December delivery jumped 4.5 percent to $34.778 an ounce on the Comex, the biggest gain since June 29. Earlier, the price reached $34.87, the highest since March 5.

The London Metal Exchange index, which includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, zinc and tin, rose for the fifth straight session, the longest rally in eight months.

Oil Advances

Crude oil advanced to a four-month high after the Fed move. The commodity also got a boost from concern that protests in the Middle East and North Africa may lead to supply disruptions.

“In the long run, this should be bullish because what they are promising is the gradual increase in stimulus,” said Jason Schenker, the president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant. “The $40 billion of mortgage debt each month will increase liquidity.”

Oil futures for October delivery advanced 1.3 percent to $98.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since May 4.

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