Build Your Portfolio On A Solid Foundation : All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic:

Building Your Apprentice

Millionaire Portfolio

 All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

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All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic:

Building Your Apprentice

Millionaire Portfolio

 

 All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Price: $28.95 & this item ships for FREE with Super Saver Shipping

All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Price: $28.95 & this item ships for FREE with Super Saver Shipping

Credit Suisse Downgrades Tag Oil

Risk

Risk (Photo credit: The Fayj)

T-TAO

$3.30 -0.09

 

 

Credit Suisse probably said it best 
“Deflated Production; Downgrade Rating…We Were Wrong”.
They write:
• We Were Wrong: In our last note dated April 4, 2013, and titled “Production Likely to Exceed 5,000 boe/d”, we believed that production could reach those heights as production at that time was already between 4,000- 4,500 boe/d with only 15 of 27 wells onstream. However, we were wrong, and to a meaningful degree. Current production has declined to roughly 2,700 boe/d (46% oil) with six more wells to bring on production,
primarily due to higher than expected declines on certain higher rate wells. Excluding contribution from new wells that continue to be drilled, the company expects to average roughly 3,000 boe/d for the balance of the year. These results highlight the risk of limited operating
history with TAG’s shallow wells.
• New Estimates: With lower production production, we reduce our production in F2014E and F2015E by 41% and 49%, respectively. We also lower our cash flow forecast in F2014E and F2015E by 58% and 63%, respectively.

Overall, we assume a more modest growth profile from TAG’s shallow well program.
• Higher Risk Profile:

We previously assumed higher growth that placed TAG among few operators offering  attractive growth rates at relatively low risk with substantial
upside optionality.

With a tempered mid-term growth outlook from the shallow well program and more meaningful step-change growth more dependent on higher risk deep well exploration, the risk versus reward profile has shifted negatively.
Recommendation: We downgrade our rating to Neutral from Outperform and lower our TP to C$6.50 (was C$9.50).
TAG is still self-funded and step-change growth potential remains around the corner, but we prefer a greater margin
of safety than the current market price of C$4.92.
Meanwhile, M Partners cuts their target more modestly/hopefully from $11.00 to $8.00 and I’m sure the long list of
disappointment analysts following the story, will have new numbers out shortly.

Tag Oil Update

Management at TAG noted that the Waipawa Black Shale and Whangai formations are high-quality source rock formations present throughout most of TAG’s million- acre East Coast Basin land holdings, and highlighted that these oil-and gas-rich source rocks are comparable in
total organic carbon content and oil and gas maturity levels to successful tight oil and gas plays such as North Dakota’s Bakken shale in the prolific Williston Basin.
A previous independent report estimated potential undiscovered oil initially-in-place amounting to 14 billion barrels, calculated on just 20% of TAG’s East Coast Basin acreage that is believed to be prospective for unconventional discovery. Management stated that TAG was the first company to identify the unconventional play in the East Coast Basin, and therefore selected the acreage where the company believed it to be the most prospective for unconventional exploration.”Clive reminds us that shale plays aren’t understood on
the first well. Expect volatility!

Keith Schaefer of the Oil and Gas Investment Bulletin, wrote on Tuesday:
• TAG has spud their first east coast shale well in New Zealand, that will be targeting the long rumoured Whangai shale.
• Be aware that if this well DOES hit, the stock could have a monster move up.
• On the positive side, you would have to think that management is going to drill where they think they have the best chance–they talk about free flowing oil in their press release.
• At the same time, companies rarely get the optimum fracking technique and recovery on the first well. But I think the market will move even if they confirm oil saturation over a long interval.
• Also remember this shale play is likely NOT like the typical North American shale plays, where they lie like blankets or sheets in a very simple flat formation. It’s a lot more folded and churned around; more geologically complex.
•The stock is not a breakout until it’s over $6.”
To us and many others, this is one of the exploration plays of the   day…Finally, now the stress and worry for a few weeks might this be another Ultra… or Not

New Zealand Energy – Misses Targets

NZ Red Admiral Butterfly in Wellington, New Ze...

NZ Red Admiral Butterfly in Wellington, New Zealand Māori: Kahukura (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

New Zealand was the greatest AMP miss in 2012 . Here is the latest chapter  of that mistake:

New Zealand Energy

NZ : TSX-V : $0.39

, Net Change: -0.25, % Change: -39.06%, Volume: 2,213,150
Financing Uncertainty.

New Zealand Energy tumbled after announcing it does not expect to achieve its 3,000 boe/d target by
the end of Q1/13.

Given its current production rate of 335 bbls/d and limited funds, the company has decided not to pursue higher-risk, higher-reward opportunities, opting instead to focus on its pending Origin asset blocks. While the Origin assets have numerous uphole completion opportunities, which will cost significantly less than regular exploration locations, Canaccord Oil & Gas Analyst Christopher Brown has concerns surrounding the company’s ability to fund the Origin acquisition, which is now projected to close in Q2/13.

The company’s working capital position, including a $5 million deposit relating to the transaction, is currently only $16.8 million. The Origin transaction will cost an additional $37 million and the company has stated it will seek alternatives for financing in 2013. On its pending Origin (TAWN) assets, the company has six wells it can move onto in Q2/Q3 which have recompletion opportunities in the upper sections of the wells. Brown estimates that recompletions would cost roughly $500,000-600,000/well, for a total capital cost of $3.0-3.6 million. Brown notes these
recompletions could potentially impact production immediately as there is infrastructure in place.

Next catalysts: i) Arakamu – NZ perforated and flow tested two zones in the Arakamu-1A well in the Moki formation, but was unable to demonstrate
recoverable hydrocarbons and has suspended the well, and ii) Wairere – NZ has cased the Wairere-1A well and will complete the well once completion activities are finished at the Arakamu-2 well.

The Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your

Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio :

All you need to succeed in today’s stock

market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Price: $28.95 & this item ships for FREE with Super Saver Shipping

Step Up Your Game – All You Need To Succeed – in 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your

Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio:

All you need to succeed in today’s stock

market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Price: $28.95 & this item ships for FREE with Super Saver Shipping

All You Need To Succeed – in 2013 – 500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections


Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Available at http://www.amazon.com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio :

All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Price: $28.95 & this item ships for FREE with Super Saver Shipping

New Zealand and Tag Oil Spoil AMP Results

New Zealand panorama

New Zealand panorama (Photo credit: mdid)

Our aim for The Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio is a return of 30 % per year.

You can review your results as against the companies highlighted in the book – available at amazon.com

Here is the New Zealand play that  did not work- we sold out gradually – a mistake – and too late.

 

TAG OIL (T-TAO) $4.60 +0.37
NEW ZEALAND ENERGY (V-NZ) $1.19 -0.08
Some of us might have once upon a time referred to these two junior Canadian oil and gas companies working in New Zealand as the “golden girls “. Well golden no more.
Hit by much weaker natural resource markets, plus weaker commodity prices, New Zealand’s first locations Copper Moki-1 and 2, were a major success, testing over 1000 bbl/d of light oil and associated gas. The wells raised market expectations for subsequent locations, so when test results from Copper Moki 3 and 4 fell short, NZEC’s share price fell from its C$3.79 high to a recent low of C$1.05. They have missed their production targets by a bunch.
Now TAG Oil hits us with a double barrel blow…as they will be missing quarterly production numbers as putting production on line will take longer than expected and partner, corporate biggie Apache, has decided that after funding the first phase of the shale play that had previously attracted a lot of speculation and greed, they will most likely be leaving New Zealand.
Apache really is that big and with huge assets around the world obviously have decisions. Their recent discoveries in the Liard basin in northeastern B.C. are now estimated to contain up to 48 trillion cubic feet of gas…enough gas to consume billions of dollars and lots of   resources…that number is truly hard to relate to. Do they even need to find anything more in the next few decades?
The Fairfax NZ News writes this report on the latest developments:
“Government plans to boost oil and gas exploration have taken another hit with news that giant United States company Apache is pulling out of an East Coast project. Apache and smaller Canadian-based operator Tag Oil teamed up to search for oil and gas in the East Coast Basin in 2011. Apache
has now withdrawn from the project, but will continue to fund the $120 million first phase.
In December, Brazilian oil giant Petrobras withdrew from exploration off the East Cape. Both projects were subject to intense opposition from environment groups and local iwi. John Roper, Apache’s manager of public affairs, said the company had many opportunities across its global portfolio and had to make daily decisions about priority for capital expenditure.
“We hope Tag is successful in this [New Zealand] project.”
Tag spokesman Garth Johnson said the company would see through phase one of the project but could not commit to continuing with phase two until the first phase was completed.
Phase one involved drilling four exploratory wells. Mr. Johnson hoped the results would support additional work and investment.” ‘Whether we like it or not, this is the nature of the oil and gas exploration business around the world and we will treat it as an opportunity.’

 

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