Detour Gold Corporation

DGC : TSX : C$14.90

Target: C$15.00

Detour Gold Corp. is a gold development company presently focused on advancing the Detour Lake project in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt of northeastern Ontario.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.
Investment recommendation
We maintain our HOLD rating on Detour Gold but are raising our target
price to C$15.00 from C$11.00. The company has made considerable
progress in de-risking the balance sheet and ramping up the Detour Lake
operation. Year-to-date, the stock is up 234% relative to the S&P/TSX Gold
Index, highlighting the market’s favourable response to management efforts
in addition to potential M&A speculation. While progress-to-date has been
encouraging and the plant is expected to hit nameplate capacity by year-end,
we still see a long way to go before the ramp-up is complete. As per the
latest mine plan, the head grade is expected to gradually increase to reserve
grade in 2017 while mining rates are expected to continue to ramp-up to
peak at 389 ktpd in 2020.
Detour Gold currently trades at 0.81x P/NAV and 8.1x P/CF 2015 vs the
large cap producer average of 0.89x and 10.2x respectively. At this stage of
the ramp-up we believe the discount is justified – continued execution on the
mine plan and successful completion of the ramp-up could lead to a
meaningfully higher multiple over the next few years. Considering the stock’s
higher leverage to the gold price, we also see the potential for the share price to move higher if the gold price continued to increase.


We have updated our valuation and forecasts to reflect our revised commodity and currency price deck. The stronger assumed C$ has had a negative impact on our valuation and forecasts, but offset by lower assumed sustaining capital forecasts and longer-term operating costs closer to the recent mine plan (We had previously modeled 20% higher LOM sustaining capital and 20% higher longer term site costs beyond 2020).
The combination of the encouraging progress to date, expected meaningful operational improvements in H2/14, greater comfort level following the recent positive site visit and productive meetings with management have resulted in us increasing our target P/NAV multiple to 0.85x from 0.70x which is the primary reason for the increase in our target price.
Our 12- month target price has increased to C$15.00 from C$11.00 based on 0.85x (previously 0.70x) our operating NAVPS estimate plus working capital and other adjustments.

Pan American Silver Corp.


PAA : TSX : C$15.75
Target: C$18.75

Pan American Silver’s key operating mines include
Huaron, Morococha and Quiruvilca in Peru, Dolores, La
Colorada and Alamo Dorado in Mexico and Manantial
Espejo in Argentina. The company maintains ownership
of the Navidad Project located in Chubut Province,
Argentina, to which we ascribe no value.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
Investment recommendation
We reiterate our HOLD rating on shares of Pan American Silver
following results for Dolores’ PEA contemplating the addition of a
milling and pulp agglomeration circuit to the process flow sheets and the
development of an underground mine. While the company reports a
strong IRR for the project, a construction decision has been deferred for
9-12 months to proceed with additional studies and continue the
delineation of underground mineralization.
Investment highlights
 Robust economics, with initial capex estimate of $105 million,
returning an IRR of 33% at $1,300/oz gold and $22/oz silver. We
estimate the development of this project to begin mid-2015, with the
pulp agglomeration plant operational mid-17 and the underground
mine at full operation (1,500 tpd) in H1/18E. We estimate that the
development of the pulp agglomeration circuit and underground
mine is approximately 5% accretive to our company NAV.
 Annual silver production is expected to increase by 38% in the first
10 years, due largely to a 21% increase in throughput and better
recoveries (~7% for both gold and silver). While an underground
resource has not been provided, we estimate 5.25 Mtonnes (based
on 1,500 tpd for 9.5 years of operations) containing approximately
11 Moz silver and 0.3 Moz gold.
We have revised our target to C$18.75 from C$17.75 based on 1.05x our
5%/operational NAVPS estimate of C$13.85 (previously C$13.09) plus
net debt and other corporate adjustments. Our 2014 EPS estimate has
been revised to $0.28 from $0.15 following the incorporation of Q1/14
results and revised 2014 cash cost estimates.

What Just Happened to Gold and Precious Metals?

Mr. Market rediscovered gold and other precious metals on Thursday, resulting in the metal’s biggest one-day rise in more than half a year. It was the 14th biggest single-day move in the price of the most popular gold ETF and a day that one trader termed ”frantic” for repositioning and short covering.

Okay, then. Why? Strategists are pointing to the Federal Reserve and its decision this week to stand pat on monetary policy. Not convinced? Neither are these strategists very convinced — except when a few of them are declaring that the market is growing increasingly skeptical of the Fed. If skepticism’s the driver, then the turn toward anti-Fed assets like gold would make more sense.

Commerzbank’s commodity strategists track the buying activity to the futures market, which is where a number of aggressive fund managers make their moves:

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images


The price rally was evidently triggered by Wednesday evening’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve, despite it yielding no surprises: as anticipated, the Fed scaled back its monthly bond purchasing programme (QE) by a further $10 billion and adjusted its projections only marginally. Fed Chair Janet Yellen merely reiterated that interest rates will remain low for a considerable period even after QE has come to an end. However, market participants apparently saw this as good reason to buy gold as well as silver on a grand scale. These were not purchases of physical gold, however, but predominantly transactions on the futures market. At over 245,000 and a good 117,000 contracts respectively, gold and silver contracts were traded at well above the average rate yesterday.

The Lindsey Group’s Peter Boockvar writes this morning that he’s watching gold and TIPS as a baromoter of the market’s view of the Fed’s credibility — and he reads the Thursday trading as a note of doubt:

Because of my amazement and surprise that the Fed didn’t alter one bit its comments on inflation in their official statement, barely changed its PCE forecasts and Janet Yellen referred to the recent higher inflation data as ‘noise’, I felt it important to mention yesterday morning that watching gold and inflation break evens were the two key indicators to watch as I believe going forward they will be a valid vote in giving their opinion on the Fed’s credibility with their policy relative to the reality of the data (in addition to the recent consumer price data, the CRB index is a ½ pt from the highest since September ’12) . While it was just one day, gold certainly spoke loud and clear on its thought of the new Fed forecasts with its biggest one day percentage rally since September and inflation break evens went up for a 3rd straight day with the 5 yr implied inflation rate at the highest level since May 2013. Based on this market response from both asset classes, I’m declaring Janet Yellen’s honeymoon as Federal Reserve Chair as officially over. This is not because I expect an imminent revolt in inflation sensitive markets to her inflation forecasts as this is always a process but because yesterday was the 1st time in her tenure that the market came out and blatantly disagreed with her and the committee as I believe they correctly should have. I expect this divergence to continue.

The market is a bit quieter in early Friday trading. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) are down 0.7% and 1.3%, respectively, ahead of the regular session.

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares (DUST) and Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NUGT), the three-times leveraged traders’ ETFs which moved more than 16% apiece on Thursday, are moving in the range of 3% to 4%.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which jumped 4.6% on Thursday, is off by 0.4%.

Trusts for Tax Planning, Tax Avoidance, Estate Planning

It is not enough to earn gains in your portfolio – you have to retain that money by tax planning.

This article is reprinted from the February 8th  edition of The Tax Guru

Mitt Romney received a lot of negative attention when he revealed he had $200 Million dollars in trust funds in the Cayman Islands. Had he been elected his critics said he would have been the first American President to have a Swiss Bank account.

Trusts are widely used and available for a variety of purposes.

Common objectives for trusts are to place assets that are growing into the hands of trusts that will be taxed at a lesser rate than the settlor of the trust  thus such transfers reduce the estate tax liability,  protect property from creditors, and  avoid probate ( a trust as a legal entity cannot die). Many international clients are seeking to avoid the income tax or creditor scrutiny that attaches to public ownership.

The trusts are often set up as agreements to hold and control property without disclosing that the original owner is still in control.From the taxation viewpoint of the U.S. Revenue Service such control would mean the trust is not effective .

Placing property, money , shares in a trust can give immunity from estate taxes, resistance to probate, creditors and so on. Your goal is the transfer so that you do not own the property legally or beneficially and therefore creditors pursuing you cannot touch the trust – if they even learn of its existence.

Suppose that you want to set up a trust.You have assets that you want to protect – assets that may not be as large as the hedge funds of Mitt Romney but can maintain their growth and provide your family a greater future if left to grow.

Setting up the trust. The person  creating the trust is commonly known as the trustor, though you may sometimes see the terms settlor or grantor.

  • Objective of the trust. You use different types of trusts to achieve a variety of specific income tax and / or  estate-planning objectives. You can establish a single estate-planning objective,-others help you achieve more than one goal.
  • Property. After you place property into a trust, that property is formally known as trust property and is then removed from your use as an asset .If you – in the simplest case – give property to another person you will be unable to have it returned to you. In the divorce work I did this was a point brought  home to many an older, sadder  but wiser man.
    • Beneficiary. In your estate planning (your will, for example), a trust’s beneficiary (or, if more than one, beneficiaries) benefits from the trust in some way, usually because the person or institution will eventually receive some or all of the property that was placed into trust.
    • Trustee. (The person in charge of the trust is the trustee). You cannot have direction over a trust if you are arguing that the property of the trust is no longer in your control. The trustee needs to understand the rules for the type of trust he or she is  managing to make sure everything in the trust stays in working order. Use of a nominee shows control in another person and removes your name from the trust document
    • Rules. Finally, some of the rules that must be followed are inherently part of the type of trust used, while other rules depend on what is specified in the trust agreement. Your concern should be on the taxation of the trust – seeking to avoid the income being attributed to you and thus of no tax benefit .This is the dreaded attribution section of the tax codes you seek to avoid.

    To set up a trust you will require professional assistance. The legal language is a safeguard tested in courts over centuries but it is the arcane legalese unfamiliar to most. The scope and complexity will vary with the assets, how they are to be accumulated, management of the trust  and your objectives.The simplest document may only be a dozen pages long and a complex trust of stock market assets and cash may be several hundred pages because of the necessity of setting out nominee management and control. Thus setting up the trust will be several thousand dollars in consultant fees on a one time basis -then ongoing annual registration is about $ 1000 in most jurisdictions.

    For a no cost / no obligation consultation please email or call Jack direct at 604-858-3202 ( same time zone as Los Angeles).

Canaccord Precious Metals Update

 For the junior precious metal producers, we have calibrated our forecasts to our updated forward curve price deck, consistent with the deck used for the senior producers.

 Our revised price deck is summarized below. Since our last update in October 2013, the long-term forward gold price has declined 3%, from $1,439/oz to $1,391/oz. Curve pricing for major by-products copper and silver have also declined, approximately 4% and 9%, respectivel.
 On the other hand, we have seen a year-to-date recovery in junior gold equity prices as highlighted by an 18% increase in the GDXJ (surprisingly outperforming the gold price which is up only 4%). We believe this reflects renewed investor interest in the space, capital inflows into the gold sector and likely increased levels of investor risk tolerance. While we have maintained the upper end of the range of target multiples for junior producers at 1.1x, we have increased the lower end of the range from 0.4x to 0.5x, reflecting increasing levels of investor risk tolerance for equities with operational/financial challenges.
 We remain positive on bullion longer term, but see the potential for significant volatility in the gold price over the next 12 months. While we see greater upside to gold equities relative to bullion, we continue to recommend investors stay defensive and choose quality over leverage. We favour companies with quality assets, strong balance sheets and relatively lower risk profiles –
i.e., producers that could generate and grow free cash flow even in the current depressed gold price environment.
Rating changes in this report include Argonaut Gold (BUY from Hold), Endeavour Mining (BUY from Speculative Buy), Fortuna Silver (BUY from Speculative Buy), and Sandstorm Gold (BUY from Speculative Buy).

Target prices have been revised lower for most stocks under coverage with the exception of higher target prices for NGD, AR, AUQ, DGC and PAA. Canaccord Genuity Canadian Focus List Picks include B2Gold, Primero Mining and Fortuna Silver Mines.
 Our Q4/13 estimates have been updated to reflect actual metal prices during the quarter and pre-released operating results. In general, we are expecting a sequential and y/y decline in earnings (due to lower gold and silver prices). Our Q4/13 EPS estimates are notably below consensus for NGD, AUQ, EDV and PAA.

 The Gold Investor’s Handbook “ by Jack A. Bass, B.A. LL.B.

( available from Amazon)

1oz 1984 Krugerrand Transferred from en.wikipedia1oz 1984 Krugerrand Transferred from en.wikipedia (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

1oz 1984 Krugerrand Transferred from en.wikipedia (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Why Invest in Gold and Gold Stocks – and Why Now ?

Historically, gold has been a proven method of preserving value when a national currency was losing value. If your investments are valued in a depreciating currency, allocating a portion to gold assets is similar to a financial insurance policy. In the past year, the climb in the price of gold above $1600 per ounce is due to many factors, one being that the dollar is steadily losing value.

  • The dollar is weak and getting weaker due to national economic policies  like quantitative easing , which don’t appear to have an end.

Silver Wheaton Corporation Update Target $30

SLW : TSX : C$21.59
Target: C$30.00

Silver Wheaton is uniquely positioned as the purest silver
producer. The company’s asset base consists of silver
purchase agreements with the San Dimas and
Penasquito mines in Mexico, Pascua-Lama project in
Chile/Argentina, Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden, Yauliyacu
mine in Peru, Stratoni mine in Greece. Most recent
streaming deals with Hudbay minerals (silver and gold
streams at 777 and Constancia) and Vale (gold streams
at Salobo and Sudbury mines).
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals

Investment recommendation

We maintain our BUY rating on Silver Wheaton. We believe the
perceived increased risk with respect to Pascua construction and
Rosemont permitting has been largely discounted in the company’s
shares. SLW boasts a robust growth profile and continues to generate
strong free cash flow at spot gold and silver prices.
Investment highlights
 We updated our model to reinstate the stream from Mercator’s
Mineral Park mine in Arizona following the proposed merger with
Intergeo MMC, which is expected to inject cash to sustain
operations. Based on Mercator’s previous mine plan, not assuming
any changes are made following the merger, we value the Mineral
Park stream at US$108 million or 1.4% of NAV.
 We also updated our model to incorporate the new PEA for Alexco’s
Keno Hill project in the Yukon. Production re-start is now expected
approximately one year later in Q1/15. Our valuation for Keno Hill
has declined from US$116 million to US$50 million. Given the
significant financing risk surrounding the re-start, we continue to
discount the stream by 50%. Alexco is in violation of the completion
agreement based on achieving throughput of 400tpd by YE14. We
assume SLW will extend the deadline given the option value.
 Overall, our 2014 production forecast of 39.4mozs remains largely
unchanged. Our 2013 EPS and CFPS estimates remain materially
unchanged at $1.06 and $1.50, respectively.
We are maintaining our target price of C$30.00, which is predicated on
a 1.30x multiple to our forward curve derived operating NAV estimate of
C$25.29 (previously C$25.44) plus net debt and other assets.

Tahoe Resources Inc.

THO : TSX : C$19.93
Target: C$27.00
Tahoe Resources’ key asset is its 100% owned flagship Escobal mine in Guatemala. Escobal is one of the world’s highest grade and largest primary silver deposits. Silver production is expected to ramp quickly and exceed 20mozs per annum for a period of at least 10 years with a stated goal of 20 years. Cash operating costs are forecast to be near or below $5.00/oz of silver net of gold, zinc and lead by-product credits.

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
Investment recommendation
We reiterate our BUY rating on Tahoe Resources following the release of Q3/13 results. We believe the key driver of Tahoe’s share price over the next six months will be the successful ramp up of Escobal to full production and we see no major impediments. THO is currently trading at 0.75x NAV, a 3% discount to its large cap peers. We believe THO should trade at a strong premium given the forecast industry leading margins, strong governance and alignment, and overall asset quality.
Investment highlights
 The ramp-up to commercial production is proceeding well with all major mill components fully commissioned. The key remaining priorities are improving concentrate specs and tailings filtration; fixes have been implemented and appear to be working. The mill operated near 50% of capacity in the first 10 days of November vs. 30% in October. We estimate commercial production in mid-Q1/14.
 Guidance for 2014 calls for 18-21mozs silver in concentrate (including pre-commercial production) versus our previous estimate of 15mozs. Cash costs are estimated to be $5.65-6.25/oz versus our previous estimate of $4.02/oz (using the same by-prod prices). The current cash balance of $39 million appears adequate. Our 2014 EPS estimate remains unchanged at $1.00.
 Management confirmed the potential for an inaugural dividend; potentially by the AGM in May 2013. We believe an initial dividend of $0.50/share (implying a 2.5% yield) may be achievable in the context of current silver prices. The current short position on THO is 22.5 million shares.
Our C$27.00/share target is predicated on a 0.95x multiple to our forward curve derived operating 5% NAVPS estimate of C$26.32 plus net debt and other assets.

Silver Wheaton Corporation BUY

SLW : TSX : C$22.50
Target: C$30.50

Silver Wheaton is uniquely positioned as the purest silver producer. The company’s asset base consists of silver
purchase agreements with the San Dimas and Penasquito mines in Mexico, Pascua-Lama project in Chile/Argentina, Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden, Yauliyacu mine in Peru, Stratoni mine in Greece. Most recent streaming deals with Hudbay minerals (silver and gold streams at 777 and Constancia) and Vale (gold streams at Salobo and Sudbury mines).

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
Investment recommendation
Silver Wheaton’s share price has declined almost 15% since Barrick’s unexpected announcement of the halt of construction at Pascua-Lama. With the Pascua risks now largely discounted in the share price, we reiterate our BUY rating on Silver Wheaton.
Investment highlights
 Silver Wheaton reported Q3/13 EPS of $0.22, which was in line with consensus and slightly ahead of our estimate of $0.21. The variance to our estimate was largely due to lower depreciation.
 Silver equivalent production was 8.9mozs, which was in line with our estimate, but sales were lower at 7.8mozs versus our 8.5mozs estimate. Sales from Yauliyacu and Penasquito lagged production in Q3/13 by ~874kozs. We anticipate inventory sales in Q4/13.
 SLW reiterated 2013 production guidance of 33.5mozs silver equivalent, including 145kozs of gold. The company also reiterated its recently revised 2017 production guidance of 42.5mozs silver equivalent, including 210kozs of gold.
 SLW recently announced the acquisition of 50% of the LOM gold production from Constancia for $135 million, which is expected to be paid in Q1/13. We view the transaction as accretive (NPV of the  stream ~$200 million). Risk has been reduced by utilizing a fixed recovery rate. Gold now represents ~30% of SLW’s medium term revenues. SLW continues to look for further accretive streaming opportunities.
 Our 2013 EPS and CFPS estimates have been revised to $1.05 (from $1.06) and $1.50 (from $1.59), respectively.
We are maintaining our 12-month target price of C$30.50, which is predicated on a 1.30x multiple to our forward curve derived operating NAVPS estimate of C$25.41 (previously C$25.71) plus net debt and other assets.

Goldman Sachs Forecasts Multiple Commodity Drops – Gold to $1000

The risks are strongest for iron ore and follow increases in supplies, analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report yesterday that identified the New York-based bank’s top 10 market themes for the coming year. Price pressures will mostly become visible later in 2014, the analysts wrote, forecasting that bullion, copper and soybeans will decline to the lowest levels since 2010.

Commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index lost 5 percent this year, led by corn as supplies surged, and precious metals on expectations the Federal Reserve will taper stimulus. Goldman described the forecast losses for iron ore, gold, soybeans and copper as significant, and said that they could help weaken currencies in producing countries, including the Australian dollar and South African rand.

“Last year, we pointed to the ongoing shift in our commodity views, ultimately towards downside price risk,” the analysts including Currie wrote. “The impact of supply responses to the period of extraordinary price pressure continues to flow through the system.”

Gold, which was at $1,245.90 an ounce on the Comex at 4:33 p.m. in Singapore, will drop $1,050 at the end of next year, Goldman said in the report, restating an earlier forecast. Currie said last month that gold is a “slam dunk” sell for next year as the U.S. economy extends its recovery.

Annual Drop

Bullion is headed for the first drop since 2000 this year as investors cut holdings. Futures lost as much as 2.6 percent yesterday after the Fed signaled that tapering may start in the months ahead, according to minutes from its October meeting.

Soybeans are seen by Goldman at $9.50 a bushel by the end of 2014, from $12.7775 in Chicago today, while corn will retreat to $3.75 a bushel from $4.255. Copper will drop to $6,200 a ton from $6,989.25 on the London Metal Exchange.

A global seaborne iron ore surplus will emerge next year as supply increases over the second and third quarters, Goldman Sachs said in a separate report last month. Prices will average $108 a ton in 2014, it said in the Oct. 18 note. The raw material averaged $135 this year at Tianjin port in China.

While downside risks for energy prices will increase next year, the outlook is more stable than for iron ore, gold and copper, Goldman said in yesterday’s report. Brent crude is seen at $105 a barrel at the end of 2014 from $108.01 today.

U.S. Recovery

“We expect the long-awaited shift towards above-trend growth in the U.S. finally to occur, spurred by an acceleration in private consumption and business investment,” the Goldman analysts wrote yesterday. At the Fed, “we expect a gradual tapering in bond purchases to begin, most likely in March.”

Pan American Silver Corp. : Adjusting for Lower Gold and Silver Pricing

Pan American Silver Corporation

Pan American Silver Corporation (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

PAAS : NASDAQ : US$12.33
Target: US$13.00

Pan American Silver‘s key operating mines include Huaron, Morococha and Quiruvilca in Peru, Dolores, La Colorada and Alamo Dorado in Mexico and Manantial Espejo in Argentina. The company maintains ownership of the Navidad Project located in Chubut Province, Argentina; to which we ascribe no value.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

We are lowering our recommendation on Pan American Silver to HOLD from Buy, and our 12-month target price to US$13.00 from US$19.50
following our revised commodity price forecasts and sector outlook. Over the next 12 months, we expect challenging capital market conditions to persist and only a modest improvement in gold and silver prices.
While Pan American Silver has one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector (US$245 million in cash/ US$738 million in working capital as
of March 31, 2013), we estimate that free cash flow would be limited (representing an FCF yield of 5% in 2014E and beyond) under our revised gold and silver price forecasts.

Organic growth within the portfolio is limited (mill/pulp agglomeration circuit at Dolores and possible expansion at La Colorada – both pending completion of economic studies), and we expect that without a material improvement in the silver price and the situation in Argentina, Navidad will likely not be built.
The stock trades at 1.71x P/NAV (5% Spot gold/silver) vs. the precious metals producer group arithmetic average of 1.16x. While some characteristics should warrant a higher multiple in current market conditions (strong balance sheet and relatively low development risk),we view the stock as fairly valued in light of limited growth potential. As such, we are downgrading Pan American Silver to HOLD from Buy based primarily on limited implied return.
Our 5%/NAVPS estimate has declined by 48% to US$10.68/share due to a reduction in our gold/silver price forecasts ($1,350 Au/$23 Ag from
$1,750 Au/$32.50 Ag). Our 12-month target price has been lowered to US$13.00 (from US$19.50) based on 1.2x (previously 0.9x) our 5%/peak
NAVPS estimate.
Our 2014E EPS and CFPS have been revised to -US$0.02 and US$1.01, respectively, from US$1.05 and US$2.18 based on our lower as assumed gold gold/silver price forecasts.

NOTE: Most gold and Silver Stocks are covered on


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