Trusts for Tax Planning, Tax Avoidance, Estate Planning

It is not enough to earn gains in your portfolio – you have to retain that money by tax planning.

This article is reprinted from the February 8th  edition of The Tax Guru

Mitt Romney received a lot of negative attention when he revealed he had $200 Million dollars in trust funds in the Cayman Islands. Had he been elected his critics said he would have been the first American President to have a Swiss Bank account.

Trusts are widely used and available for a variety of purposes.

Common objectives for trusts are to place assets that are growing into the hands of trusts that will be taxed at a lesser rate than the settlor of the trust  thus such transfers reduce the estate tax liability,  protect property from creditors, and  avoid probate ( a trust as a legal entity cannot die). Many international clients are seeking to avoid the income tax or creditor scrutiny that attaches to public ownership.

The trusts are often set up as agreements to hold and control property without disclosing that the original owner is still in control.From the taxation viewpoint of the U.S. Revenue Service such control would mean the trust is not effective .

Placing property, money , shares in a trust can give immunity from estate taxes, resistance to probate, creditors and so on. Your goal is the transfer so that you do not own the property legally or beneficially and therefore creditors pursuing you cannot touch the trust – if they even learn of its existence.

Suppose that you want to set up a trust.You have assets that you want to protect – assets that may not be as large as the hedge funds of Mitt Romney but can maintain their growth and provide your family a greater future if left to grow.

Setting up the trust. The person  creating the trust is commonly known as the trustor, though you may sometimes see the terms settlor or grantor.

  • Objective of the trust. You use different types of trusts to achieve a variety of specific income tax and / or  estate-planning objectives. You can establish a single estate-planning objective,-others help you achieve more than one goal.
  • Property. After you place property into a trust, that property is formally known as trust property and is then removed from your use as an asset .If you – in the simplest case – give property to another person you will be unable to have it returned to you. In the divorce work I did this was a point brought  home to many an older, sadder  but wiser man.
    • Beneficiary. In your estate planning (your will, for example), a trust’s beneficiary (or, if more than one, beneficiaries) benefits from the trust in some way, usually because the person or institution will eventually receive some or all of the property that was placed into trust.
    • Trustee. (The person in charge of the trust is the trustee). You cannot have direction over a trust if you are arguing that the property of the trust is no longer in your control. The trustee needs to understand the rules for the type of trust he or she is  managing to make sure everything in the trust stays in working order. Use of a nominee shows control in another person and removes your name from the trust document
    • Rules. Finally, some of the rules that must be followed are inherently part of the type of trust used, while other rules depend on what is specified in the trust agreement. Your concern should be on the taxation of the trust – seeking to avoid the income being attributed to you and thus of no tax benefit .This is the dreaded attribution section of the tax codes you seek to avoid.

    To set up a trust you will require professional assistance. The legal language is a safeguard tested in courts over centuries but it is the arcane legalese unfamiliar to most. The scope and complexity will vary with the assets, how they are to be accumulated, management of the trust  and your objectives.The simplest document may only be a dozen pages long and a complex trust of stock market assets and cash may be several hundred pages because of the necessity of setting out nominee management and control. Thus setting up the trust will be several thousand dollars in consultant fees on a one time basis -then ongoing annual registration is about $ 1000 in most jurisdictions.

    For a no cost / no obligation consultation please email info@jackbassteam.com or call Jack direct at 604-858-3202 ( same time zone as Los Angeles).

Canaccord Precious Metals Update

JUNIOR PRODUCER Q4/13 SCORECARD: RECALIBRATING OUR PRICE
DECK TO THE FORWARD CURVE
 For the junior precious metal producers, we have calibrated our forecasts to our updated forward curve price deck, consistent with the deck used for the senior producers.

 Our revised price deck is summarized below. Since our last update in October 2013, the long-term forward gold price has declined 3%, from $1,439/oz to $1,391/oz. Curve pricing for major by-products copper and silver have also declined, approximately 4% and 9%, respectivel.
 On the other hand, we have seen a year-to-date recovery in junior gold equity prices as highlighted by an 18% increase in the GDXJ (surprisingly outperforming the gold price which is up only 4%). We believe this reflects renewed investor interest in the space, capital inflows into the gold sector and likely increased levels of investor risk tolerance. While we have maintained the upper end of the range of target multiples for junior producers at 1.1x, we have increased the lower end of the range from 0.4x to 0.5x, reflecting increasing levels of investor risk tolerance for equities with operational/financial challenges.
 We remain positive on bullion longer term, but see the potential for significant volatility in the gold price over the next 12 months. While we see greater upside to gold equities relative to bullion, we continue to recommend investors stay defensive and choose quality over leverage. We favour companies with quality assets, strong balance sheets and relatively lower risk profiles –
i.e., producers that could generate and grow free cash flow even in the current depressed gold price environment.
Rating changes in this report include Argonaut Gold (BUY from Hold), Endeavour Mining (BUY from Speculative Buy), Fortuna Silver (BUY from Speculative Buy), and Sandstorm Gold (BUY from Speculative Buy).

Target prices have been revised lower for most stocks under coverage with the exception of higher target prices for NGD, AR, AUQ, DGC and PAA. Canaccord Genuity Canadian Focus List Picks include B2Gold, Primero Mining and Fortuna Silver Mines.
 Our Q4/13 estimates have been updated to reflect actual metal prices during the quarter and pre-released operating results. In general, we are expecting a sequential and y/y decline in earnings (due to lower gold and silver prices). Our Q4/13 EPS estimates are notably below consensus for NGD, AUQ, EDV and PAA.

 The Gold Investor’s Handbook “ by Jack A. Bass, B.A. LL.B.

( available from Amazon)

1oz 1984 Krugerrand Transferred from en.wikipedia1oz 1984 Krugerrand Transferred from en.wikipedia (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

1oz 1984 Krugerrand Transferred from en.wikipedia (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Why Invest in Gold and Gold Stocks – and Why Now ?

Historically, gold has been a proven method of preserving value when a national currency was losing value. If your investments are valued in a depreciating currency, allocating a portion to gold assets is similar to a financial insurance policy. In the past year, the climb in the price of gold above $1600 per ounce is due to many factors, one being that the dollar is steadily losing value.

  • The dollar is weak and getting weaker due to national economic policies  like quantitative easing , which don’t appear to have an end.

Silver Wheaton Corporation Update Target $30

SLW : TSX : C$21.59
SLW : NYSE
BUY 
Target: C$30.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Silver Wheaton is uniquely positioned as the purest silver
producer. The company’s asset base consists of silver
purchase agreements with the San Dimas and
Penasquito mines in Mexico, Pascua-Lama project in
Chile/Argentina, Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden, Yauliyacu
mine in Peru, Stratoni mine in Greece. Most recent
streaming deals with Hudbay minerals (silver and gold
streams at 777 and Constancia) and Vale (gold streams
at Salobo and Sudbury mines).
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
MINERAL PARK FINDS A BUYER;
KENO HILL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 2015; MAINTAIN BUY RATING AND C$30.00 TARGET


Investment recommendation


We maintain our BUY rating on Silver Wheaton. We believe the
perceived increased risk with respect to Pascua construction and
Rosemont permitting has been largely discounted in the company’s
shares. SLW boasts a robust growth profile and continues to generate
strong free cash flow at spot gold and silver prices.
Investment highlights
 We updated our model to reinstate the stream from Mercator’s
Mineral Park mine in Arizona following the proposed merger with
Intergeo MMC, which is expected to inject cash to sustain
operations. Based on Mercator’s previous mine plan, not assuming
any changes are made following the merger, we value the Mineral
Park stream at US$108 million or 1.4% of NAV.
 We also updated our model to incorporate the new PEA for Alexco’s
Keno Hill project in the Yukon. Production re-start is now expected
approximately one year later in Q1/15. Our valuation for Keno Hill
has declined from US$116 million to US$50 million. Given the
significant financing risk surrounding the re-start, we continue to
discount the stream by 50%. Alexco is in violation of the completion
agreement based on achieving throughput of 400tpd by YE14. We
assume SLW will extend the deadline given the option value.
 Overall, our 2014 production forecast of 39.4mozs remains largely
unchanged. Our 2013 EPS and CFPS estimates remain materially
unchanged at $1.06 and $1.50, respectively.
Valuation
We are maintaining our target price of C$30.00, which is predicated on
a 1.30x multiple to our forward curve derived operating NAV estimate of
C$25.29 (previously C$25.44) plus net debt and other assets.

Tahoe Resources Inc.

THO : TSX : C$19.93
TAHO : NYSE
BUY 
Target: C$27.00
COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Tahoe Resources’ key asset is its 100% owned flagship Escobal mine in Guatemala. Escobal is one of the world’s highest grade and largest primary silver deposits. Silver production is expected to ramp quickly and exceed 20mozs per annum for a period of at least 10 years with a stated goal of 20 years. Cash operating costs are forecast to be near or below $5.00/oz of silver net of gold, zinc and lead by-product credits.

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION Q1/14E
Investment recommendation
We reiterate our BUY rating on Tahoe Resources following the release of Q3/13 results. We believe the key driver of Tahoe’s share price over the next six months will be the successful ramp up of Escobal to full production and we see no major impediments. THO is currently trading at 0.75x NAV, a 3% discount to its large cap peers. We believe THO should trade at a strong premium given the forecast industry leading margins, strong governance and alignment, and overall asset quality.
Investment highlights
 The ramp-up to commercial production is proceeding well with all major mill components fully commissioned. The key remaining priorities are improving concentrate specs and tailings filtration; fixes have been implemented and appear to be working. The mill operated near 50% of capacity in the first 10 days of November vs. 30% in October. We estimate commercial production in mid-Q1/14.
 Guidance for 2014 calls for 18-21mozs silver in concentrate (including pre-commercial production) versus our previous estimate of 15mozs. Cash costs are estimated to be $5.65-6.25/oz versus our previous estimate of $4.02/oz (using the same by-prod prices). The current cash balance of $39 million appears adequate. Our 2014 EPS estimate remains unchanged at $1.00.
 Management confirmed the potential for an inaugural dividend; potentially by the AGM in May 2013. We believe an initial dividend of $0.50/share (implying a 2.5% yield) may be achievable in the context of current silver prices. The current short position on THO is 22.5 million shares.
Valuation
Our C$27.00/share target is predicated on a 0.95x multiple to our forward curve derived operating 5% NAVPS estimate of C$26.32 plus net debt and other assets.

Silver Wheaton Corporation BUY

SLW : TSX : C$22.50
SLW : NYSE
BUY 
Target: C$30.50

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Silver Wheaton is uniquely positioned as the purest silver producer. The company’s asset base consists of silver
purchase agreements with the San Dimas and Penasquito mines in Mexico, Pascua-Lama project in Chile/Argentina, Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden, Yauliyacu mine in Peru, Stratoni mine in Greece. Most recent streaming deals with Hudbay minerals (silver and gold streams at 777 and Constancia) and Vale (gold streams at Salobo and Sudbury mines).

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
Q3/13 RESULTS IN LINE; GOLDEN LINING GROWS WITH CONSTANCIA; REITERATE
BUY RATING
Investment recommendation
Silver Wheaton’s share price has declined almost 15% since Barrick’s unexpected announcement of the halt of construction at Pascua-Lama. With the Pascua risks now largely discounted in the share price, we reiterate our BUY rating on Silver Wheaton.
Investment highlights
 Silver Wheaton reported Q3/13 EPS of $0.22, which was in line with consensus and slightly ahead of our estimate of $0.21. The variance to our estimate was largely due to lower depreciation.
 Silver equivalent production was 8.9mozs, which was in line with our estimate, but sales were lower at 7.8mozs versus our 8.5mozs estimate. Sales from Yauliyacu and Penasquito lagged production in Q3/13 by ~874kozs. We anticipate inventory sales in Q4/13.
 SLW reiterated 2013 production guidance of 33.5mozs silver equivalent, including 145kozs of gold. The company also reiterated its recently revised 2017 production guidance of 42.5mozs silver equivalent, including 210kozs of gold.
 SLW recently announced the acquisition of 50% of the LOM gold production from Constancia for $135 million, which is expected to be paid in Q1/13. We view the transaction as accretive (NPV of the  stream ~$200 million). Risk has been reduced by utilizing a fixed recovery rate. Gold now represents ~30% of SLW’s medium term revenues. SLW continues to look for further accretive streaming opportunities.
 Our 2013 EPS and CFPS estimates have been revised to $1.05 (from $1.06) and $1.50 (from $1.59), respectively.
Valuation
We are maintaining our 12-month target price of C$30.50, which is predicated on a 1.30x multiple to our forward curve derived operating NAVPS estimate of C$25.41 (previously C$25.71) plus net debt and other assets.

Goldman Sachs Forecasts Multiple Commodity Drops – Gold to $1000

The risks are strongest for iron ore and follow increases in supplies, analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report yesterday that identified the New York-based bank’s top 10 market themes for the coming year. Price pressures will mostly become visible later in 2014, the analysts wrote, forecasting that bullion, copper and soybeans will decline to the lowest levels since 2010.

Commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index lost 5 percent this year, led by corn as supplies surged, and precious metals on expectations the Federal Reserve will taper stimulus. Goldman described the forecast losses for iron ore, gold, soybeans and copper as significant, and said that they could help weaken currencies in producing countries, including the Australian dollar and South African rand.

“Last year, we pointed to the ongoing shift in our commodity views, ultimately towards downside price risk,” the analysts including Currie wrote. “The impact of supply responses to the period of extraordinary price pressure continues to flow through the system.”

Gold, which was at $1,245.90 an ounce on the Comex at 4:33 p.m. in Singapore, will drop $1,050 at the end of next year, Goldman said in the report, restating an earlier forecast. Currie said last month that gold is a “slam dunk” sell for next year as the U.S. economy extends its recovery.

Annual Drop

Bullion is headed for the first drop since 2000 this year as investors cut holdings. Futures lost as much as 2.6 percent yesterday after the Fed signaled that tapering may start in the months ahead, according to minutes from its October meeting.

Soybeans are seen by Goldman at $9.50 a bushel by the end of 2014, from $12.7775 in Chicago today, while corn will retreat to $3.75 a bushel from $4.255. Copper will drop to $6,200 a ton from $6,989.25 on the London Metal Exchange.

A global seaborne iron ore surplus will emerge next year as supply increases over the second and third quarters, Goldman Sachs said in a separate report last month. Prices will average $108 a ton in 2014, it said in the Oct. 18 note. The raw material averaged $135 this year at Tianjin port in China.

While downside risks for energy prices will increase next year, the outlook is more stable than for iron ore, gold and copper, Goldman said in yesterday’s report. Brent crude is seen at $105 a barrel at the end of 2014 from $108.01 today.

U.S. Recovery

“We expect the long-awaited shift towards above-trend growth in the U.S. finally to occur, spurred by an acceleration in private consumption and business investment,” the Goldman analysts wrote yesterday. At the Fed, “we expect a gradual tapering in bond purchases to begin, most likely in March.”

Pan American Silver Corp. : Adjusting for Lower Gold and Silver Pricing

Pan American Silver Corporation

Pan American Silver Corporation (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

PAAS : NASDAQ : US$12.33
PAA : TSX
HOLD 
Target: US$13.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Pan American Silver‘s key operating mines include Huaron, Morococha and Quiruvilca in Peru, Dolores, La Colorada and Alamo Dorado in Mexico and Manantial Espejo in Argentina. The company maintains ownership of the Navidad Project located in Chubut Province, Argentina; to which we ascribe no value.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

We are lowering our recommendation on Pan American Silver to HOLD from Buy, and our 12-month target price to US$13.00 from US$19.50
following our revised commodity price forecasts and sector outlook. Over the next 12 months, we expect challenging capital market conditions to persist and only a modest improvement in gold and silver prices.
While Pan American Silver has one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector (US$245 million in cash/ US$738 million in working capital as
of March 31, 2013), we estimate that free cash flow would be limited (representing an FCF yield of 5% in 2014E and beyond) under our revised gold and silver price forecasts.

Organic growth within the portfolio is limited (mill/pulp agglomeration circuit at Dolores and possible expansion at La Colorada – both pending completion of economic studies), and we expect that without a material improvement in the silver price and the situation in Argentina, Navidad will likely not be built.
The stock trades at 1.71x P/NAV (5% Spot gold/silver) vs. the precious metals producer group arithmetic average of 1.16x. While some characteristics should warrant a higher multiple in current market conditions (strong balance sheet and relatively low development risk),we view the stock as fairly valued in light of limited growth potential. As such, we are downgrading Pan American Silver to HOLD from Buy based primarily on limited implied return.
Valuation
Our 5%/NAVPS estimate has declined by 48% to US$10.68/share due to a reduction in our gold/silver price forecasts ($1,350 Au/$23 Ag from
$1,750 Au/$32.50 Ag). Our 12-month target price has been lowered to US$13.00 (from US$19.50) based on 1.2x (previously 0.9x) our 5%/peak
NAVPS estimate.
Forecasts
Our 2014E EPS and CFPS have been revised to -US$0.02 and US$1.01, respectively, from US$1.05 and US$2.18 based on our lower as assumed gold gold/silver price forecasts.

NOTE: Most gold and Silver Stocks are covered on http://www.ampgoldportfolio.com

Silver Eruption ?

American Platinum Eagle bullion coin

American Platinum Eagle bullion coin (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The coming silver price eruption

2012-DEC-02

Silver coins There was a degree of predictability about the knockdown in gold and silver at the US futures market (Comex) last Wednesday. The reason is that the Commercials (together the producers, processers, fabricators, bullion banks and swap dealers) have large short positions, so they have a vested interest in lower prices. This is particularly noticeable in silver, which is shown below.

Silver long-short spread

The chart is of Commercials’ shorts and longs as of Tuesday November 27. The Commercial shorts (the red line) now stand at 99,317 contracts, or 496,585,000 ounces, about two thirds of 2011’s worldwide mine production, and is the highest level of exposure since 2009. Because the longs have ticked up (the blue line), the net figure is not yet at record levels, but is only 9,212 contracts away from it.

The justification for looking at the gross short commercial position is that the shorts are mostly the bullion banks, and producers hedging future costs (whose business is channelled through the bullion banks). The

long commercials are more genuine, being manufacturers satisfying physical demand and locking in current prices to secure their margins. Swap dealers, again mostly the bullion banks, have positions both ways. The gross short position is therefore a better indicator of the futures market position of the “liquidity providers” than the net balance.

In a properly functioning market, net public demand is always long, so liquidity providers, such as market makers, or in this case the bullion banks on their own account, are always short between them in a bull market. The skill required is to make trading profits in excess of losses on the underlying position. The proviso always is that you never become so short that in an emergency you cannot cover your position. The bullion banks in the silver market are ignoring this overriding principal.

They now have a problem. Instead of having record short positions against an over-bought market, there is only moderate managed fund interest. This interest is shown in the next chart.

Silver money managers

While money managers (mostly hedge funds) have nearly doubled their longs and slashed their shorts since July, their longs are still only a little more than average: this hardly represents the overbought conditions suitable for a major bear raid.

On this evidence, the bullion banks which are short in the silver market are potentially in serious trouble, unless somewhere there is a pot of physical silver they can dip into. There isn’t, if we assume that iShares Silver Trust’s 315 million ounces is unavailable. There is no other identifiable source of silver, other perhaps than some producer supply, and there is anecdotal evidence that on every dip, cash silver migrates from

West to East, confirmed by silver being constantly in backwardation.

The odds now favour a substantial bear squeeze. And as the managed funds which lost money on their shorts in June-July sniff sweet revenge, this could rapidly escalate. At the moment, every dollar move upwards in the silver price costs the shorts nearly half a billion dollars. And there is no way it can be covered, because the cash silver simply does not exist.

When the shorts finally run for cover, the effect on the silver price is going to be spectacular.

The Gold Investor’s Handbook – click here for  investment profits and much more detail on the in’s and outs of investing in gold

CITI: Commodity Forecasts

Nov 27

 

Citi is bearish on Brent prices and thinks the oil market is in the process of normalizing

Citi is bearish on Brent prices and thinks the oil market is in the process of normalizing

 

2012 average year price:
$110.00/barrel

2013 average year price:
$99.00/barrel

2014 average year price:
$93.00/barrel

We’re seeing a “supply cornucopia” at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions.  The American energy revolution also heightens geopolitical tensions, since it reduces dependence on West Africa, Middle East, Venezuela, Mexico and oil prices decrease. OPEC and other oil producing countries  will see their fiscal breakevens – price at which oil contributes to balancing budget – rise.

WTI Crude oil prices should decline as demand for oil is subdued

2012 average year price:
$92.00/barrel

2013 average year price:
$85.00/barrel

2014 average year price:
$83.00/barrel

Commodities indices are expected to add to Brent positions put less weight in NYMEX WTI. But WTI prices are also likely to be impacted by subdued demand for oil.

Natural Gas prices are expected to rise because of lower inventory levels, lower expected imports from Canada, and higher exports to Mexico.

Natural Gas prices are expected to rise because of lower inventory levels, lower expected imports from Canada, and higher exports to Mexico.

Natural gas compressor station

Aluminum is expected to see modest consumption growth in 2013

2012 average year price:
$2,057.00/tonne

2013 average year price:
$2,100.00/tonne

2014 average year price:
$2,175.00/tonne

Aluminum has seen rising production and inventory, but demand has kept it from having an overly negative impact on prices.

Aluminum consumption growth is expected to be a modest 1.3 percent in 2013 because of the slowdown in China and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-2013-commodities-outlook-2012-11?op=1#ixzz2DNmiAcLS

 

2012 average year price:
$2.75/ million BTUs

2013 average year price:
$3.55/ million BTUs

2014 average year price:
$4.10/ million BTUs

Natural gas prices will are subject to seasonality. As winter approaches prices could increase on lower inventory levels at the end of October, lower imports from Canada, and higher exports to Mexico.

Domestic production could fall but not by much. The fiscal cliff could however have a huge impact on natural gas prices.

Copper prices are projected to decline as supply increases and demand slides

2012 average year price:
$7,970.00/tonne

2013 average year price:
$7,965.00/tonne

2014 average year price:
$7,775.00/tonne

2013 is a “year of transition for copper” in terms of supply and demand. 2013 signals the next wave in terms of copper supply according to Citi analysts who think that mine supply growth will be up 6.7 percent.

On the demand side, China isn’t expected to have a major stimulus in early 2013, and with many markets in Europe expected to be in a recession, demand from the region is also expected to be weak.

Nickel prices are expected to rise because supply is tighter than everyone thinks

2012 average year price:
$17,833.00/tonne

2013 average year price:
$21,770.00/tonne

2014 average year price:
$24,400.00/tonne

Nickel suffers from a “reputational deficit amongst many in the analytical community” because of certain assumptions made about its over supply.

“In the short term, the combination of low consumer stainless inventories , particularly in Europe and China, and low nickel inventories with stainless mills, makes the nickel market is indeed increasingly vulnerable to a technical short covering rally perhaps prompted by index fund rebasing. However, unlike a similar rally in January 2012, it is likely that such a move in early 2013 is likely to spark consumer restocking, helping push prices towards $21,000/t during the first quarter.”

Demand for zinc is expected to rise modestly pushing prices higher

2012 average year price:
$1,956.00/tonne

2013 average year price:
$2,040.00/tonne

2014 average year price:
$2,125.00/tonne

The market faces weak fundamentals since LME inventory has jumped since the start of 2012. Demand for zinc is slowing especially viz-a-viz China but is expected to improve modestly in 2013. Mine supply is healthy

Gold prices will rise in 2013, before declining again in 2014

2012 average year price:
$1,679.00/ounce

2013 average year price:
$1,749.00/ounce

2014 average year price:
$1,655.00/ounce

Despite investors turning less bullish on gold, Citi continues to be bullish on gold. President Obama’s victory was expected to be positive for gold since it would benefit from “a continuation of dovish monetary policy”. Gold prices have also been supported by central bank gold purchases. Moreover muted gold demand in India is expected to have picked up during Diwali.

Gold Rally – What Rally ? Cannacord Updates Targets

English: 1 oz (Troy ounce) of fine gold Deutsc...

English: 1 oz (Troy ounce) of fine gold Deutsch: Eine Unze Feingold mit Zertifikat (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Canaccord Nicholas Campell is particularly thankful that the U.S. Federal Reserve announced QE3. In his view, one of the key drivers of the gold price has been global U.S. dollar liquidity, which increased substantially in the last few years due to massive stimulus efforts to boost economic growth. His regression analysis (going back to mid-2000) illustrates an almost perfect correlation between the gold price and global U.S. dollar liquidity levels.

Based on his best-fit line, Campbell estimates that current levels support a gold price of US$1,690/oz. Despite massive government stimulus efforts, the global economic recovery has been materially slower than anticipated, which has led the U.S. Fed to introduce QE3, an open-ended additional round of quantitative easing via purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and bonds at the rate of US$40 billion per month, with no apparent end date. Campbell’s analysis further indicates that approximately $1 trillion in additional U.S. dollar liquidity (equivalent to approximately 24 months of the QE3 program) could potentially add another $220/oz to the gold price.

Campbell also sees support from low real interest rates and Eurozone sovereign debt concerns. As a result, on October 10, 2012, the Canaccord Genuity Metals and Mining group revised the peak gold/silver scenario to $2,000/$40 from $1,750/$35 for equity target price setting.

For earnings purposes, the Team also revised gold/silver price forecasts to $1,850/$36.50 (from $1,725/$34.00) in 2013, $1,950/$39 (from $1,650/$31/50) in 2014, and to $1,600/$29 (from $1,500/$27.50) in 2017 and beyond. As a side note, Campbell also indicated that it is an attractive season to hold gold. When examining performance YTD in 2012, we see that May was a low point for all commodities, with strong upward trends observed since then.

He believes that we will continue to see strong commodity performance in the period of October to January, as expected through a historically strong September – January season for precious metals prices based on 20 years of data.

 

 

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