Blackberry – BBRY Fever $30 Target ?

TaKE A LOOK AT THE HEADLINES FROM THE MOST RECENT ARTICLE :

published today July 8,2014

Summary

  • BlackBerry has surprised investors with a series of good news lately.
  • BlackBerry’s house cleaning operation last year has been successful, and set the ground for future growth.
  • Once BlackBerry reports operating cash flow profitability, investors will pile into the stock.
  • Investor sentiment is gradually changing, which is a key requirement for higher stock prices.

a general contempt , sadness and scorn for the once mighty smartphone maker is being replaced with calls of a rise due to the new management, short squeeze and reassessment of the prospects of the ” new ” BBRY.

here is a sample from Seeking Alpha Article list for Blackberry

BlackBerry defends the Passport
Shares of Canadian handset company BlackBerry fell 5%, giving back nearly all of Monday’s gain. BlackBerry has been an especially volatile stock in recent sessions, so its decline is not surprising.

Late on Monday, BlackBerry published an official blog post defending the design of its upcoming handset, the Passport. The BlackBerry Passport has received a notable level of attention in recent weeks due to its unconventional design: a large phone with a physical keyboard and square-shaped body.

BlackBerry argues that the Passport’s square screen is ideal for productivity — at 4.5-inches, it isn’t as large as some of the larger Android handsets on the market, but the added width makes it easier for users to view documents.

The Passport alone won’t dictate BlackBerry’s future, but success here could help the company erase its losses. Last quarter, the company lost money, though less than analysts had anticipated. BlackBerry’s management aims to hit breakeven by the end of the year.

Blackberry : The Motley Fool Review

Is BlackBerry Ripe for a Comeback?

BlackBerry (TSX: BB)(NASDAQ: BBRY) missed revenue estimates in six of the last eight quarters, not to mention the heavy cash burn and write-downs it had to live through during those periods, but last quarter, BlackBerry managed to post a GAAP profit.

Could this be the bottom investors have been waiting for? Frankly, taking a position in Blackberry even now is a gamble — here’s why.

The competition isn’t standing still

Last quarter, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) sold 43 million iPhones even after the record breaking 51 million in Q1. Of those 43 million, 66% came from overseas (BlackBerry’s bread and butter), showing that Apple is set to gain share in the emerging marketplace. Meanwhile, Google has over 1 billion Android devices activated and more than half of the market in the U.S., along with an ever-increasing offering of products within the Android ecosystem. BlackBerry is going to need a blockbuster product to attract consumers to its products.

The menace of another write-down

BlackBerry gets 71% of its revenue outside North America and while it was announced that the Z3 was launched in Indonesia along with eight new markets to follow, a write-down of inventory due to low sales is probable. Considering BlackBerry’s recent history with new products coupled with competition from the emerging market phone manufacturers, it is a danger that needs to be taken into account.

A sliver of optimism

Along the cost reduction side of the income statement, BlackBerry seems to be doing well with its strategy. It managed to post a gross margin of 48%, an increment of 5% over last quarter along with reducing adjusted operating expenses by 57% on a year-over-year basis. So while growth is not quite there yet, at least the company is now more aligned on the cost side with its anticipated revenue stream. The sale of its real estate managed to increase cash on the balance sheet to $3.1 billion, allowing management more freedom to maneuver without the threat of liquidity in the near to mid future.

New markets and executive vote of trust

It was announced last week that BlackBerry signed an accord with Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) to open the BlackBerry devices to the Amazon app store, giving its users access to the most popular apps on the market at the moment. Moreover, new CEO John Chen bought 50,000 shares so far in 2014 sending a signal that the top executive is bullish on the company’s prospects.

Proceed at your own risk

Whether or not you believe in BlackBerry, opening a position is speculation at this stage. With such high volatility both pre- and post-earnings release in the past years, it might be more prudent to sit this one out until the restructuring is on more sound footing.

BlackBerry rallies as Passport images/specs leak

  • Leaked pictures of BlackBerry’s (BBRY +4.8%) anticipated Passport phone show a rectangular device with an abbreviated QWERTY keyboard.
  • The enterprise-focused device reportedly features a 4.5″, 1440×1440, display (1:1 aspect ratio), 32GB of storage, 3GB of RAM, and a hefty 3450mAh battery.
  • John Chen recently announced the Passport would launch in September. The leaks come two weeks after BlackBerry announced (in a strategy shift) Amazon’s Appstore for Android would be integrated with BlackBerry 10.3 (due this fall), and that it’ll work with BlackBerry developers to migrate their apps to the Appstore.

BLACKBERRY(BBRY:NASDAQ, US)

10.01USDIncrease0.23(2.35%)Volume: 
Below Average
As of 30 Jun 2014 at 10:58 AM EDT.

 

QUOTE DETAILS

Open 9.82 P/E Ratio (TTM)
Last Bid/Size 10.01 / 63 EPS (TTM) -11.39
Last Ask/Size 10.02 / 122 Next Earnings 26 Sep 2014
Previous Close 9.78 Beta 1.19
Volume 5,636,179 Last Dividend
Average Volume 31,033,955 Dividend Yield 0.00%
Day High 10.05 Ex-Dividend Date
Day Low 9.78 Shares Outstanding 526.9M
52 Week High 12.18 # of Floating Shares 500.0557M
52 Week Low 5.44 Short Interest as % of Float 19.19%

 

Quicksilver Resources Short Squeeze ?

KWK rises and falls with the price of natural gas as do most producers.

There are several additional factors that account for our interest .

We bought KWK for Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts because they are seeking to turn an overleveraged ship and the recent $485 M sale of assets is part of that.

Equally interesting is that the recent rise in nat gas pricing allows KWK to roll over successful hedges at prices that have rallied.

Finally a 25 % short position means volume and price support. At this point we have not seen any sign of short covering – that is unusual volume day after day .

QUICKSILVER RESOURCES INC(KWK:NYSE, US)

BuySell
3.27USDIncrease0.11(3.48%)Volume:
Below Average
As of 30 Jan 2014 at 1:20 PM EST.
QUOTE DETAILS
Open 3.18 P/E Ratio (TTM)
Last Bid/Size 3.26 / 59 EPS (TTM) -2.13
Last Ask/Size 3.27 / 427 Next Earnings 24 Feb 2014
Previous Close 3.16 Beta 1.73
Volume 1,307,835 Last Dividend
Average Volume 2,960,777 Dividend Yield 0.00%
Day High 3.27 Ex-Dividend Date
Day Low 3.08 Shares Outstanding 177.1M
52 Week High 3.54 # of Floating Shares 123.7796M
52 Week Low 1.44 Short Interest as % of Float 24.77%

Natural Gas Pares Decline as Supply Decline Matches Forecast

Natural gas futures pared declines in New York after a government report showed a U.S. stockpile decline that matched analyst estimates.

The Energy Information Administration said inventories fell 230 billion cubic feet in the week ended Jan. 24 to 2.193 trillion cubic feet. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed a withdrawal of 231 billion. A survey of Bloomberg users predicted a decrease of 230 billion.

“It’s still a pretty healthy draw,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF Advisors in Houston. “The run up over the last few days has already priced in very large withdrawals and also you have a weather forecast at the very back end that looks to be moderating.”

Trading Alert : Diana Shipping Short Squeeze

Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts are enjoying the shipping sector recovery – shorts are paying the price of our success.

DIANA SHIPPING INC(DSX:NYSE, US)

BuySell
12.48USDIncrease0.42(3.48%)Volume:
Above Average
As of 19 Sep 2013 at 10:08 AM EDT.

QUOTE DETAILS

Open 12.28 P/E Ratio (TTM) 109.1x
Last Bid/Size 12.47 / 8 EPS (TTM) 0.11
Last Ask/Size 12.48 / 3 Next Earnings 20 Nov 2013
Previous Close 12.06 Beta 1.42
Volume 340,200 Last Dividend
Average Volume 1,709,194 Dividend Yield 0.00%
Day High 12.50 Ex-Dividend Date
Day Low 12.22 Shares Outstanding 82.2M
52 Week High 13.24 # of Floating Shares 67.12071M
52 Week Low 6.45 Short Interest as % of Float 3.41%
chart

BALTIC DRY INDEX  New YTD 52 Week High


BDIY:IND

1,822.0082.00 4.71%

Stocks That Everyone Is Shorting Part 2

Best Buy

Percent short: 14.04

TickerBBY

Industry: Retail

Comment: The big box electronics retailer continues to lose business to the online competition

Chesapeake Energy

Percent short: 14.04

Ticker: CHK

Industry: Energy

Comment:  Chesapeake  failed to meet its desired price target in a recent sale of midstream assets, according to Argus Research’s Phil Weiss.

1-Year Return: -24%

TripAdvisor

TripAdvisor

Percent short: 14.44

Ticker: TRIP

Industry: Retail

Comment: After Priceline bought Kayak,  investors  believe  TripAdvisor will fall behind.

1-Year Return: +66%

Apollo Group

Percent short: 16.51

Ticker: APOL

Industry: For-profit education

Comment:  For-profit schools are constantly in the headlines as a target for increased regulation.

1-Year Return: -60%

Federated Investors Inc.

Percent short: 17.68

Ticker: FII

Industry: Finance

Comment:  The fund management company has absolutely crushed the shorts with huge 2012 returns.

1-Year Return: +50%

The 25 Stocks That Everyone Is Shorting Like Crazy

 

15/26

   

Cliffs Natural Resources

Percent short: 19.96

Ticker: CLF

Industry: Minerals production

Comment: Cliffs was recently cut to “sell” by Goldman over a “relatively weak iron ore environment.”

1-Year Return: -35%

Frontier Communications

Percent short: 22.29

Ticker: FTR

Industry: Telecom

Comment: Frontier was the fifth-worst-performing stock during President Obama’s first term.

1-Year Return: -9%

Advanced Micro Devices

Advanced Micro Devices

Daniel Goodman / Business Insider

Percent short: 24.06

Ticker: AMD

Industry: Tech

Comment: The shift away from personal computing has driven down AMD’s stock down 60 percent this year.

1-Year Return: -56%

US Steel

US Steel

The Carnegie Steel factory in Pittsburgh.

Wikimedia Commons

Percent short: 25.3

Ticker: X

Industry: Manufacturing

Comment: Steel’s Q3 revenues came in -8%  compared to the same period in 2011.

1-Year Return: -9%

Netflix

Percent short: 26.97

Ticker: NFLX

Industry: Tech

Comment: Rival Redbox just began operating a new video streaming service.

1-Year Return: +34%

Pitney Bowes

Percent short: 30.5

Ticker: PBI

Industry: Mail and document services

Comment: Pitney’s third-quarter profit fell 56%.

1-Year Return:  -36%

Safeway

Percent short: 33.45

Ticker: SWY

Industry: Supermarket

Comment: Safeway’s Q3 revenues fell short of expectations.

1-Year Return: -11%

Gamestop

Percent short: 36.47

Ticker: GME

Industry: Retail

Comment: YOY videogame sales fell 11 percent in November.

1-Year Return: +8%

 

24/26

   

JC Penney

Percent short: 42.94

Ticker: JCP

Industry: Retail

Comment: Some analysts have taken an extremely bearish view of CEO Ron Johnson’s turnaround attempts.

1-Year Return: -43%

First Solar

First Solar

NASA/SDO/GSFC]

Percent short: 43.05

Ticker: FSLR

Industry: Energy

Comment: First Solar’s Q3 earnings dropped 55% on restructuring charges.

1-Year Return: -9%

Stocks That Everyone Is Shorting

DR Horton

Percent short: 12.19

TickerDHI

Industry: Housing

Comment: Some analysts remain unconvinced the housing sector has turned around.

1-Year Return: +60%

Source: Bloomberg

Salesforce.com

Percent short: 12.48

Ticker: CRM

Industry: Tech

Comment:  Salesforce.com  recently reported Q3 losses of $220 million.

1-Year Return: +66%

Staples

Percent short: 12.59

Ticker: SPLS

Industry: Retail

Comment: Staples recently reported a net loss of $596.3 million.

1-Year Return: -15%

Percent short: 12.95

Ticker: DNB

Industry: Data

Comment: Dun & Bradstreet recently abandoned plans to sell itself.

1-Year Return: +7%

Percent short: 13.09

Ticker: ANF

Industry: Retail

Comment: Among 14 retailers, Abercrombie was the only one to receive an outright “sell” rating from a fall Citi report.

1-Year Return: 0%

Chipotle

Percent short: 13.22

Ticker: CMG

Industry: Food

Comment: David Einhorn‘s recent comments about competition Chipotle will face from Taco bell continue to spook investors.

1-Year Return: -12%

Eaton Corp

Eaton Corp

AP Photo/Mike Derer

Percent short: 13.27

Ticker: ETN

Industry: Manufacturing

Comment: Eaton just saw its quarterly revenue decline as expenses rose.

1-Year Return: +29%

Seagate

Percent short: 13.75

Ticker: STX

Industry: Tech

Comment: Seagate’s rating was cut recently to underweight by JPMorgan over “macroeconomic and secular factors.”

1-Year Return: +95%

Hasbro

Percent short: 13.78

Ticker: HAS

Industry: Retail

Comment: Hasbro recently reported earnings of $164.9 million off from $171 million from Q3 2011.

1-Year Return: +18%

NIKO Resources – Analysts Cut Targets

English: Coat of Arms (Lambang) of City (Kota)...

English: Coat of Arms (Lambang) of City (Kota) Lhokseumawe, Provinsi Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (on Sumatra), Indonesia (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

NIKO RESOURCES

Sept. 13

 (T-NKO) $9.00

Despite the feeling that the resource sector might have bottomed over the last while, there’s still some truly ugly stock charts out there. One that is now even worse is that of Niko Resources They announced that their Lebah-1 well on the North Ganal block in Indonesia has been abandoned.

That is the third miss in a row in Indonesia and Niko is on a losing streak over the last while. The former golden boy has lost much of its lustre.

 One talking head on BNN today was virtually chortling and needless to say, a little gleeful as his hedge fund is short Niko and he points to the company’s $300 million convertible debenture that comes due at the end of the year and expects that to cause the company more than a little grief.

 There has been a long, long list of analysts that have liked this story including Josef Schachter who has frankly liked it all the way down.

 

Meanwhile, Macquarie had just cut their target to $16.50 a week ago and now RBC cuts their target, but only to $35.00  from $43.00, showing they still have hopes.

Raymond James cuts their target to $20.00 from $30.00. Yes, the golden boy is somewhat tarnished. 

It is expected that their next exploration in Indonesia should be the Jayarani-1 on the Lhokseumawe block, scheduled to begin drilling in October 2012 and Niko has also suggested that a drilling rig has moved to location at Maestro-1 on Block 2ab in Trinidad.

 

YELP – Post IPO Lockup

Image representing Yelp as depicted in CrunchBase

Image via CrunchBase

August 30

Yelp

YELP : NYSE : US$22.22

Over 50 million shares of Yelp became available for trading after their post-IPO lockup on Wednesday, and after falling by more than 30% in the past three weeks, shares rallied as bearish investors looked close their short positions. With many of 2012’s tech IPOs getting smacked down on their first free trading days ( Facebook (FB ) down 6.9% on August 16 and Groupon (GRPN)  down 8.9% on June 1), investors were unloading and shorting shares of Yelp in advance of the lockup expiration.

As of Tuesday, 29% of Yelp shares were shorted according to Markit. The end result? A short squeeze as short sellers were forced to buy back shares, pushing the price higher. As the stock climbed, more short sellers were required to buy back their positions at even higher prices helping push Yelp deep into the green and above its IPO price.

 

 

IMAX – JV +Short Squeeze + Profits Rise with BATMAN Blockbuster

Interior of an IMAX Dome control room Science ...

Interior of an IMAX Dome control room Science Centre OMNI-Theatre, Republic of Singapore (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

IMAX Corporation  july 17

IMAX : NYSE : US$24.11 Buy , Target US$32.00

Two sizable JV deals signed; install guidance set to rise; reiterate BUY rating and US$32.00 target

Investment highlights

Two separate deals for 15 JVs signed yesterday: IMAX announced two sizable JV deals yesterday – with AMC Entertainment in the US and then TGV Cinemas in Malaysia for a total of 15 JVs (with upside for an additional 10 theatres). Of the 15 JVs confirmed, at least five will be installed in 2012, which means further upside to the installation guidance which currently sits at 95-100. Based on these two announcements, as well as the mini surge in new signings we saw in the latter half of June, we can say that we expect the install guidance (out of backlog) to be raised by at least 15 theatres.

New signings maybe up to 75 YTD: Based on the recent signings as well as comments made on investor day, we estimate that total new signings are now up to 75 thus far in 2012. This is a strong signings number considering we are only halfway through the year. Recall our longer-term projections for IMAX (basis for our DCF) assumes only 100 new signings a year.

Expect strong Q2 call on July 26: We believe all this sets the stage for a strong  Q2/12 call on July 26. As we highlighted in our preview note for the quarter (July 3, 2012), we are expecting an 81% EBITDA growth quarter

We  anticipate a sizable upward revision to installation guidance.

Historically, the stock has responded well to increases in installation guidance and upticks in new signings.

Short positions at record highs:

 We have been surprised to see that  short positions in IMAX have risen sharply in recent times. Short positions have risen from a low of 2.7 MM (shares) in mid-October 2011 to 4.8 MM by the end of 2011, to 10.9 MM currently. Given the positive catalysts we expect in July and August, together with the fact that negative angles on the story seem to have been losing ground, we expect these positions to unwind, providing a further tailwind to the stock.

We value IMAX by using a DCF analysis, to arrive at our target of US$32.00 per share. We use a discount factor of 9.5%.

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