Quicksilver Resources Short Squeeze ?

KWK rises and falls with the price of natural gas as do most producers.

There are several additional factors that account for our interest .

We bought KWK for Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts because they are seeking to turn an overleveraged ship and the recent $485 M sale of assets is part of that.

Equally interesting is that the recent rise in nat gas pricing allows KWK to roll over successful hedges at prices that have rallied.

Finally a 25 % short position means volume and price support. At this point we have not seen any sign of short covering – that is unusual volume day after day .


Below Average
As of 30 Jan 2014 at 1:20 PM EST.
Open 3.18 P/E Ratio (TTM)
Last Bid/Size 3.26 / 59 EPS (TTM) -2.13
Last Ask/Size 3.27 / 427 Next Earnings 24 Feb 2014
Previous Close 3.16 Beta 1.73
Volume 1,307,835 Last Dividend
Average Volume 2,960,777 Dividend Yield 0.00%
Day High 3.27 Ex-Dividend Date
Day Low 3.08 Shares Outstanding 177.1M
52 Week High 3.54 # of Floating Shares 123.7796M
52 Week Low 1.44 Short Interest as % of Float 24.77%

Natural Gas Pares Decline as Supply Decline Matches Forecast

Natural gas futures pared declines in New York after a government report showed a U.S. stockpile decline that matched analyst estimates.

The Energy Information Administration said inventories fell 230 billion cubic feet in the week ended Jan. 24 to 2.193 trillion cubic feet. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed a withdrawal of 231 billion. A survey of Bloomberg users predicted a decrease of 230 billion.

“It’s still a pretty healthy draw,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF Advisors in Houston. “The run up over the last few days has already priced in very large withdrawals and also you have a weather forecast at the very back end that looks to be moderating.”

Trading Alert : Diana Shipping Short Squeeze

Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts are enjoying the shipping sector recovery – shorts are paying the price of our success.


Above Average
As of 19 Sep 2013 at 10:08 AM EDT.


Open 12.28 P/E Ratio (TTM) 109.1x
Last Bid/Size 12.47 / 8 EPS (TTM) 0.11
Last Ask/Size 12.48 / 3 Next Earnings 20 Nov 2013
Previous Close 12.06 Beta 1.42
Volume 340,200 Last Dividend
Average Volume 1,709,194 Dividend Yield 0.00%
Day High 12.50 Ex-Dividend Date
Day Low 12.22 Shares Outstanding 82.2M
52 Week High 13.24 # of Floating Shares 67.12071M
52 Week Low 6.45 Short Interest as % of Float 3.41%



1,822.0082.00 4.71%

Stocks That Everyone Is Shorting Part 2

Best Buy

Percent short: 14.04


Industry: Retail

Comment: The big box electronics retailer continues to lose business to the online competition

Chesapeake Energy

Percent short: 14.04

Ticker: CHK

Industry: Energy

Comment:  Chesapeake  failed to meet its desired price target in a recent sale of midstream assets, according to Argus Research’s Phil Weiss.

1-Year Return: -24%



Percent short: 14.44

Ticker: TRIP

Industry: Retail

Comment: After Priceline bought Kayak,  investors  believe  TripAdvisor will fall behind.

1-Year Return: +66%

Apollo Group

Percent short: 16.51

Ticker: APOL

Industry: For-profit education

Comment:  For-profit schools are constantly in the headlines as a target for increased regulation.

1-Year Return: -60%

Federated Investors Inc.

Percent short: 17.68

Ticker: FII

Industry: Finance

Comment:  The fund management company has absolutely crushed the shorts with huge 2012 returns.

1-Year Return: +50%

The 25 Stocks That Everyone Is Shorting Like Crazy




Cliffs Natural Resources

Percent short: 19.96

Ticker: CLF

Industry: Minerals production

Comment: Cliffs was recently cut to “sell” by Goldman over a “relatively weak iron ore environment.”

1-Year Return: -35%

Frontier Communications

Percent short: 22.29

Ticker: FTR

Industry: Telecom

Comment: Frontier was the fifth-worst-performing stock during President Obama’s first term.

1-Year Return: -9%

Advanced Micro Devices

Advanced Micro Devices

Daniel Goodman / Business Insider

Percent short: 24.06

Ticker: AMD

Industry: Tech

Comment: The shift away from personal computing has driven down AMD’s stock down 60 percent this year.

1-Year Return: -56%

US Steel

US Steel

The Carnegie Steel factory in Pittsburgh.

Wikimedia Commons

Percent short: 25.3

Ticker: X

Industry: Manufacturing

Comment: Steel’s Q3 revenues came in -8%  compared to the same period in 2011.

1-Year Return: -9%


Percent short: 26.97

Ticker: NFLX

Industry: Tech

Comment: Rival Redbox just began operating a new video streaming service.

1-Year Return: +34%

Pitney Bowes

Percent short: 30.5

Ticker: PBI

Industry: Mail and document services

Comment: Pitney’s third-quarter profit fell 56%.

1-Year Return:  -36%


Percent short: 33.45

Ticker: SWY

Industry: Supermarket

Comment: Safeway’s Q3 revenues fell short of expectations.

1-Year Return: -11%


Percent short: 36.47

Ticker: GME

Industry: Retail

Comment: YOY videogame sales fell 11 percent in November.

1-Year Return: +8%




JC Penney

Percent short: 42.94

Ticker: JCP

Industry: Retail

Comment: Some analysts have taken an extremely bearish view of CEO Ron Johnson’s turnaround attempts.

1-Year Return: -43%

First Solar

First Solar


Percent short: 43.05

Ticker: FSLR

Industry: Energy

Comment: First Solar’s Q3 earnings dropped 55% on restructuring charges.

1-Year Return: -9%

Stocks That Everyone Is Shorting

DR Horton

Percent short: 12.19


Industry: Housing

Comment: Some analysts remain unconvinced the housing sector has turned around.

1-Year Return: +60%

Source: Bloomberg


Percent short: 12.48

Ticker: CRM

Industry: Tech

Comment:  Salesforce.com  recently reported Q3 losses of $220 million.

1-Year Return: +66%


Percent short: 12.59

Ticker: SPLS

Industry: Retail

Comment: Staples recently reported a net loss of $596.3 million.

1-Year Return: -15%

Percent short: 12.95

Ticker: DNB

Industry: Data

Comment: Dun & Bradstreet recently abandoned plans to sell itself.

1-Year Return: +7%

Percent short: 13.09

Ticker: ANF

Industry: Retail

Comment: Among 14 retailers, Abercrombie was the only one to receive an outright “sell” rating from a fall Citi report.

1-Year Return: 0%


Percent short: 13.22

Ticker: CMG

Industry: Food

Comment: David Einhorn‘s recent comments about competition Chipotle will face from Taco bell continue to spook investors.

1-Year Return: -12%

Eaton Corp

Eaton Corp

AP Photo/Mike Derer

Percent short: 13.27

Ticker: ETN

Industry: Manufacturing

Comment: Eaton just saw its quarterly revenue decline as expenses rose.

1-Year Return: +29%


Percent short: 13.75

Ticker: STX

Industry: Tech

Comment: Seagate’s rating was cut recently to underweight by JPMorgan over “macroeconomic and secular factors.”

1-Year Return: +95%


Percent short: 13.78

Ticker: HAS

Industry: Retail

Comment: Hasbro recently reported earnings of $164.9 million off from $171 million from Q3 2011.

1-Year Return: +18%

NIKO Resources – Analysts Cut Targets

English: Coat of Arms (Lambang) of City (Kota)...

English: Coat of Arms (Lambang) of City (Kota) Lhokseumawe, Provinsi Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (on Sumatra), Indonesia (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


Sept. 13

 (T-NKO) $9.00

Despite the feeling that the resource sector might have bottomed over the last while, there’s still some truly ugly stock charts out there. One that is now even worse is that of Niko Resources They announced that their Lebah-1 well on the North Ganal block in Indonesia has been abandoned.

That is the third miss in a row in Indonesia and Niko is on a losing streak over the last while. The former golden boy has lost much of its lustre.

 One talking head on BNN today was virtually chortling and needless to say, a little gleeful as his hedge fund is short Niko and he points to the company’s $300 million convertible debenture that comes due at the end of the year and expects that to cause the company more than a little grief.

 There has been a long, long list of analysts that have liked this story including Josef Schachter who has frankly liked it all the way down.


Meanwhile, Macquarie had just cut their target to $16.50 a week ago and now RBC cuts their target, but only to $35.00  from $43.00, showing they still have hopes.

Raymond James cuts their target to $20.00 from $30.00. Yes, the golden boy is somewhat tarnished. 

It is expected that their next exploration in Indonesia should be the Jayarani-1 on the Lhokseumawe block, scheduled to begin drilling in October 2012 and Niko has also suggested that a drilling rig has moved to location at Maestro-1 on Block 2ab in Trinidad.


YELP – Post IPO Lockup

Image representing Yelp as depicted in CrunchBase

Image via CrunchBase

August 30


YELP : NYSE : US$22.22

Over 50 million shares of Yelp became available for trading after their post-IPO lockup on Wednesday, and after falling by more than 30% in the past three weeks, shares rallied as bearish investors looked close their short positions. With many of 2012’s tech IPOs getting smacked down on their first free trading days ( Facebook (FB ) down 6.9% on August 16 and Groupon (GRPN)  down 8.9% on June 1), investors were unloading and shorting shares of Yelp in advance of the lockup expiration.

As of Tuesday, 29% of Yelp shares were shorted according to Markit. The end result? A short squeeze as short sellers were forced to buy back shares, pushing the price higher. As the stock climbed, more short sellers were required to buy back their positions at even higher prices helping push Yelp deep into the green and above its IPO price.



IMAX – JV +Short Squeeze + Profits Rise with BATMAN Blockbuster

Interior of an IMAX Dome control room Science ...

Interior of an IMAX Dome control room Science Centre OMNI-Theatre, Republic of Singapore (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

IMAX Corporation  july 17

IMAX : NYSE : US$24.11 Buy , Target US$32.00

Two sizable JV deals signed; install guidance set to rise; reiterate BUY rating and US$32.00 target

Investment highlights

Two separate deals for 15 JVs signed yesterday: IMAX announced two sizable JV deals yesterday – with AMC Entertainment in the US and then TGV Cinemas in Malaysia for a total of 15 JVs (with upside for an additional 10 theatres). Of the 15 JVs confirmed, at least five will be installed in 2012, which means further upside to the installation guidance which currently sits at 95-100. Based on these two announcements, as well as the mini surge in new signings we saw in the latter half of June, we can say that we expect the install guidance (out of backlog) to be raised by at least 15 theatres.

New signings maybe up to 75 YTD: Based on the recent signings as well as comments made on investor day, we estimate that total new signings are now up to 75 thus far in 2012. This is a strong signings number considering we are only halfway through the year. Recall our longer-term projections for IMAX (basis for our DCF) assumes only 100 new signings a year.

Expect strong Q2 call on July 26: We believe all this sets the stage for a strong  Q2/12 call on July 26. As we highlighted in our preview note for the quarter (July 3, 2012), we are expecting an 81% EBITDA growth quarter

We  anticipate a sizable upward revision to installation guidance.

Historically, the stock has responded well to increases in installation guidance and upticks in new signings.

Short positions at record highs:

 We have been surprised to see that  short positions in IMAX have risen sharply in recent times. Short positions have risen from a low of 2.7 MM (shares) in mid-October 2011 to 4.8 MM by the end of 2011, to 10.9 MM currently. Given the positive catalysts we expect in July and August, together with the fact that negative angles on the story seem to have been losing ground, we expect these positions to unwind, providing a further tailwind to the stock.

We value IMAX by using a DCF analysis, to arrive at our target of US$32.00 per share. We use a discount factor of 9.5%.


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