All posts in category Smartphones

ARM Holdings plc

The official logo for the ARM processor archit...

The official logo for the ARM processor architecture (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

ARMH : NASDAQ : US$47.24
ARM : LSE
BUY 
Target: US$56.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
ARM is a leading semiconductor IP supplier to the diverse global semiconductor market. ARM’s revenues are driven through a licensing and royalty business model, with a majority of the royalty sales driven by the mobile market
including handsets, smartphones, and tablets. ARM also supplies semiconductor IP to the server, PC, and embedded markets and physical implementation libraries and IP to semiconductor foundries.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

Investment recommendation:
From ARM’s analyst day yesterday in London where ARM management highlighted strong longterm market and royalty growth opportunities in both high- and low-tier smartphones.

We believe ARM is well positioned to benefit from quickly increasing emerging market feature phone to smartphone upgrades, ramping low-tier tablets, and high-tier smartphone platform refreshes that should drive royalty TAM growth and rate expansion. Further, with a growing number of ARM partners moving toward multi-core Cortex-A, big.LITTLE, and ARMv8 designs at leading edge process nodes, we anticipate strong license sales in the near to medium term will drive strong royalty revenue growth and both operating and earnings leverage long term. We reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target to $56.
Investment highlights
 Our Q1/13 monthly handset sales surveys and recent March quarter results and June quarter guidance for ARM mobile chipset partners are consistent with ARM’s estimates for very strong growth of the low- and mid-tier smartphone markets and also resilient growth of the high-tier market driven flagship launches and 4G/LTE upgrades.
 At its analyst day, ARM shared its target of 15-25% smartphone royalty sales CAGR through 2017 and anticipates smartphone unit CAGR of 20% for the industry during the same period. In fact, this estimate includes growth in both the high- and lower-tier smartphone markets, and we believe ARM will generate significant royalty revenue growth from both tiers driven by a royalty rate expansion multiplier in the slower-growing high-tier market and upgrades
from lower royalty feature phones in lower tiers.
 Due to increased royalty estimates from lower tier smartphones and tablets, we are increasing our 2013 earnings/ADS estimate from $1.01 to $1.02 and our 2014 estimate from $1.31 to $1.35.

Valuation:

Our $56 price target (from $52) is based on shares trading at
roughly 42x our 2014 normalized earnings/ADS estimate.

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by jackbassteam on May 23, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Smartphones, Tablets, Tech stocks, Telecommunications
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 23, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/23/arm-holdings-plc/

BlackBerry SELL Target $ 9

RIM BlackBerry 7230

RIM BlackBerry 7230 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

BBRY : NASDAQ : US$15.63
BB : TSX
SELL 
Target: US$9.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
BlackBerry Ltd. is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wire less solutions for the mobile communications market. Through development and integration of hardware, software and services, the company provides solutions for access to information including email, messaging, Internet and intranet-based applications

Canaccord says that its global surveys indicate mixed BlackBerry sell-through trends, with weakening sales of the Z10 over the past month but strong initial demand for the limited supply Q10.

Given the weaker Z10 sales levels combined with more limited initial supply of the Q10 than our expectations, we are lowering our BB10 selling
estimates for the May quarter from 3.3M to 2.8M units. While we anticipate stronger near-term results for BlackBerry as higher margin BB10 smartphones sell into the channel, we do not believe BlackBerry can achieve sell-through market share levels to return to sustained profit
levels. Therefore, we reiterate our SELL rating and $9 price target.
Investment highlights
 Given store surveys indicated slowing Z10 sales at Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile combined with lower supply levels of the Q10 with a physical keyboard than our expectations, we have reduced our May quarter BB10 smartphone shipment estimates from 3.3M units to 2.8M units.
 With new BB10 smartphones facing increased high-end competition from the Samsung Galaxy S4 and the HTC One, we anticipate Z10 sales could further weaken in the consumer retail channels. However, we anticipate a strong ramp in Q10 sales over the next several months could more than offset the slower Z10 sales.
 While we have lowered our BB10 estimates, we modestly lower our 2013 LPS estimates given our belief BlackBerry may temper nearterm
marketing plans until supply levels of the Q10 improve.
 Given our lower BB10 estimates primarily from our lowered Z10 sales assumptions, we reduce our F2014 LPS estimate from ($0.37) to ($0.44). Our F2015 LPS estimate of ($0.75) remains unchanged.

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by jackbassteam on May 7, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Android, BlackBerry, Smartphones, Telecommunications
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 7, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/07/blackberry-sell-target-9/

NQ Mobile

English: The Great Wall of China, near Beijing...

English: The Great Wall of China, near Beijing in July 2006. This is a section of Mutianyu. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

NQ : NYSE : US$9.17
BUY 
Target: US$17.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
NQ Mobile is a leading provider of consumer-centric mobile Internet services focusing on security and productivity. NQ Mobile has leading share of the mobile security market in China. The company was founded in 2005 and headquartered in Beijing, China

Investment recommendation:

We believe NQ Mobile is well positioned in the mobile security and overall mobile applications markets given its strong share in China, expanding international deal pipeline and customer base, and broadening product and services portfolio. We reiterate our BUY rating and $17 price target.
Investment highlights
 We believe NQ Mobile is well positioned for strong international growth in 2013 with a growing deal pipeline including recently signed deals with Russell Cellular, Axiom Telecom, America Movil, U.S Cellular, and others. We remain impressed with the NQ’s expanding customer/partner network and believe co-CEO Omar Khan continues to expand NQ’s customer reach through new deals. In fact, we believe NQ’s retail dealer program now includes nearly 2,000 mobile retailers in the U.S.
 We also believe NQ Mobile is well positioned to leverage its leading mobile security market share in the rapidly growing mid- and lowtier
Chinese smartphone market. Further, with NQ Mobile now offering its mobile security solutions for Qualcomm’s QRD platform and with NQ’s deep integration with MediaTek’s smartphone chips through NQ’s Hesine investment, we believe these initiatives should result in future OEM pre-installation agreements. Pre-installs generated roughly 40% of NQ’s 2012 Chinese registered user adds.
 With NQ issuing additional shares to finance its recent Q4/12 Feiliu acquisition, we have increased our share count along with our stock
compensation expense for GAAP earnings. Due to our increased share estimates, we slightly lower our 2013 pro forma EPS estimate from $0.95 to $0.91 and our 2014 estimate from $1.25 to $1.20.
Valuation:

Our $17 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 14x our 2014 pro forma EPS estimate.

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by jackbassteam on May 7, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Mobile, Smartphones, Telecommunications
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 7, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/07/nq-mobile/

Blackberry Slides

Research In Motion (BB : TSX : $13.99),
Research In Motion (BBRY : NASDAQ : US$13.78

Shares of BlackBerry slid Thursday following an ITG Investment Research report that said sales of the
Z10 smartphone are weak in the U.S.

The report said that in many cases, more people are returning the phone than keeping it and that overall demand remains week. A separate report from Detwiler Fenton said, “In several cases, returns are now exceeding sales, a phenomenon we have never seen before,” with many returning it because they find the interface unintuitive.
The Z10 (and soon to be launched Q10) are seen by many as BlackBerry’s last chance to return to prominence as a relevant smartphone manufacturer. Canaccord Genuity Technology Analyst Michael Walkley believes BlackBerry’s hardware business will struggle to return to profitability given increasing smartphone competition, and he struggles to assign any value to the hardware business given his belief that an acquirer of BlackBerry would likely attempt to transition BlackBerry’s subscriber base to their own competing smartphone products or ecosystem. While BlackBerry has roughly $2.9B in cash, he assigns zero value to BlackBerry’s cash in his sum-of-parts analysis because he believes BlackBerry’s core business will struggle to break even, and he anticipates BlackBerry’s cash balance will decline over the next several quarters as the company spends on advertising and working capital to launch its BlackBerry 10 platform. Late Thursday, BlackBerry said claims of high Z10

Broken Blackberry

Broken Blackberry (Photo credit: MattHurst)

returns are “absolutely false.”

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by jackbassteam on April 12, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in BlackBerry, Smartphones, Telecommunications

Posted by jackbassteam on April 12, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/04/12/blackberry-slides/

QUALCOMM Target $ 85

Image representing Qualcomm as depicted in Cru...

Image via CrunchBase

QUALCOMM
QCOM : NASDAQ : US$65.16
BUY 
Target: US$85.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Qualcomm manufactures chipsets, licenses technology, and provides global wireless services. Qualcomm has a strong wireless intellectual property position and is a leading wireless chipset supplier.

INCREASING MSM ESTIMATES BASED ON SHARE GAINS IN LEADING SMARTPHONES
Investment recommendation:

We believe Qualcomm is well positioned to post strong earnings growth during F2013 due to stable royalty rates, strong connected tablet and smartphone sales driving stable ASP trends, strong 3G device sales in emerging markets, and an increasing mix of LTE MSM sales combined with strong QTL growth trends. We reiterate our BUY rating and increase our price target to $85 from $83.
Investment highlights
 Consistent with monthly store surveys indicating an increasing mix of LTE smartphones combined with the ramping sales of new highend
smartphones with strong QCT content such as the Galaxy S4 and HTC One, we have increased our QCT estimates for 2H/F2013.

 We believe Qualcomm’s broad portfolio and deep product pipeline are positioned to leverage Qualcomm’s leadership in integrated solutions including top share in ARM CPUs, mobile GPUs, 3G/4G modems, DSPs and RF. Despite competitors sampling integrated LTE solutions during C2013, we believe Qualcomm’s 3rd-gen LTE solutions will enable Qualcomm to maintain its competitive advantages versus competitors’ 1st-gen solutions. We have increased our QCT market share assumptions for F2013 and F2014.
 As LTE networks launch in new markets throughout C2013, we believe Qualcomm will grow MSM share in high-end smartphones during 2013 and maintain very strong share in 2014. Our increased QCT share estimates led us to increase our F2013 pro forma EPS estimate from $4.44 to $4.54 and F2014 from $4.86 to $5.00.
Valuation:

Our $85 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 17x our F2014 pro forma EPS estimate.

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by jackbassteam on April 9, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Smartphones, Tech stocks, Telecommunications
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on April 9, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/04/09/qualcomm-target-85/

Apple Target $ 600 Q2/F13 PREVIEW; UPDATING ESTIMATES

Image representing Apple as depicted in CrunchBase

Image via CrunchBase

AAPL : NASDAQ : US$423.20
BUY 
Target: US$600.00

Q2/F13 PREVIEW; UPDATING ESTIMATES

 

Investment recommendation:

Our monthly and overall March quarter global handset surveys indicated iPhone 5 sales declined consistent with normal seasonal patterns after very strong December holiday quarter sales. However, our surveys indicated stronger sales of iPhone 4/4S models at reduced prices, and we have updated our iPhone estimates.
Given our expectations for a summer iPhone refresh combined with competitor smartphone ramps including the Samsung Galaxy S4 during the transitional June quarter, we believe Apple could lose meaningful near-term market and profit share before the iPhone 5S refresh. Longer term, we maintain our belief Apple has a strong product pipeline that should result in reaccelerating Y/Y earnings growth during 2H/C2013.

In the near term, we believe Apple is likely to increase cash returns to shareholders. We reiterate our BUY rating and $600 price target.
Investment highlights
 Our March quarter global handset surveys indicated the iPhone 5, 4S, and 4 maintained leading share of the high-end smartphone market with improving supply and a stronger mix of iPhone 4 and 4S sales than our expectations.

 Based on reduced iPhone pricing combined with our increased iPhone 4 and 4S sales assumptions, we are increasing our March/June quarter iPhone unit estimates from 34.5M/25M to 37M/27M. However, with an increased mix of iPhone 4/4S sales, we are decreasing our ASP estimate from $651 in the December quarter to $601 in the March quarter.
 These adjustments slightly raise our F2013 EPS estimate from $43.59 to $43.86 and our F2014 estimate from $50.00 to $50.16.
Valuation:

Our $600 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 12x our F2014 EPS estimate.

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by jackbassteam on April 8, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Apple, Computers, Smartphones, Tablets, Tech stocks, Telecommunications
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Posted by jackbassteam on April 8, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/04/08/apple-target-600-q2f13-preview-updating-estimates/

RF Micro Devices Target $ 7

English: A ridiculous line of people waiting f...

English: A ridiculous line of people waiting for the iPhone 3G outside of the Apple Store on 5th Ave. between 58th St. and 59th St., NYC, July 12, 2008. I was not in the line. pictured: the Apple Store entrance (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

RFMD : NASDAQ : US$5.32
BUY 
Target: US$7.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
RF Micro Devices is a leading supplier of power amplifiers, front end modules and other RF components for mobile devices (handsets, smartphones, tablets) and communications infrastructure.

Investment recommendation:

We believe RFMD is well positioned to deliver strong growth in C2013/14 driven by share gains in flagship LTE smartphone platforms including Samsung, Nokia, BlackBerry, and Apple. Further, given RFMD’s strong position in mid- and low-tier believe RFMD is well positioned to benefit from elastic smartphone demand in emerging markets including China.

Overall, we believe RFMD should grow faster than the RFIC market in F14/15 and improved capacity utilization should drive margin leverage. We upgrade RFMD shares from HOLD to BUY and raise our price target to $7 from $5.50.
Investment highlights
 Given RFMD’s improved LTE portfolio including Phenom PAs and antenna switching solutions, we believe RFMD is well positioned to gain content share in flagship smartphone platforms including the Samsung Galaxy S4, Nokia Lumia and Asha series, BlackBerry Z10 and Q10, and potentially Apple’s iPhone 5S. In addition, we believe RFMD is less exposed to softer near-term iPhone sales that should have a greater impact to RFMD’s competitors.
 Further, our market analysis indicates ramping sales of affordable 3G smartphones from Chinese OEMs powered by Qualcomm QRD, MediaTek, and Spreadtrum turnkey solutions, and we believe RFMD has strong share, particularly in TD-SCDMA smartphones.
 Finally, while we concede Qualcomm’s entry into the CMOS PA market could potentially shrink the long-term TAM for PA suppliers, including RFMD, we believe the intermediate impact to RFMD’s market share, design wins, sales, and earnings are negligible.
 We maintain our above-consensus F2014 pro forma EPS estimate of $0.42 and introduce our F2015 estimate of $0.63.
Valuation:

Our $7 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 11x our F2015 pro forma EPS estimate.

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by jackbassteam on April 2, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Mobile, Smartphones, Tablets, Tech stocks, Telecommunications
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Posted by jackbassteam on April 2, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/04/02/rf-micro-devices-target-7/

Cirrus Logic LOWERING ESTIMATES ON TIMING OF IPHONE/IPAD LAUNCHES

Cirrus Logic CL-GD5446

Cirrus Logic CL-GD5446 (Photo credit: /~helmar)

CRUS : NASDAQ : US$23.39
BUY 
Target: US$30.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Cirrus Logic, a fabless semiconductor company, develops and sells high-precision analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) for audio and energy markets worldwide. The company offers analog and mixed-signal audio converter, digital amplifiers and audio digital signal processor (DSP) products. The company also provides high-precision analog and mixed-signal ICs and boardlevel modules for energy-related applications.

Investment recommendation


With expectations markedly lower around iPhone units in the H1, including lower estimates from Canaccord’s Apple analyst Mike Walkley, we believe it is prudent to trim our estimates, especially in light of our own recent checks into long lead time suppliers. Given valuation, weak
relative performance since November, and a deluge of negative Apple notes/revisions, we believe CRUS is pricing in a cut to estimates, and our
reduced outlook is unlikely to negatively impact the stock. Even with the number cut, CRUS is the least expensive name within our semiconductor
coverage and is trading at the most substantial discount to its median historic forward multiple of earnings (6x vs. two year historical median
of 14x).
Timing of new products from Apple weighted to Q3 based on long lead time suppliers.
Suppliers with 1.5- to 2-month lead times are seeing low volume iPhone and iPad related orders beginning in June and ramping to volume in July. If this forecast isn’t pulled in over the next month and a half, it means that refreshes on these products aren’t likely until August at the earliest. Previous expectations in the supply chain, including PCB forecasts (short lead time so less dependable), indicated a late Q2/early Q3 launch.
Valuation
Cirrus Logic’s price target of $30.00 (was $35) is 8x our C2013 EPS estimate of $3.67 plus net cash of $2.15/share.

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by jackbassteam on March 22, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Apple, Smartphones, Tech stocks, Telecommunications
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Posted by jackbassteam on March 22, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/03/22/cirrus-logic-lowering-estimates-on-timing-of-iphoneipad-launches/

Peregrine Semiconductor UPDATING ESTIMATES FOR IPHONE 5 SUMMER LAUNCH

A couple shows excitement as they buy their iP...

A couple shows excitement as they buy their iPhone when it was released in June 2007. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

PSMI : NASDAQ : US$9.36
BUY 
Target: US$13.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Peregrine Semiconductor is a leading fabless supplier of high-end RF switches and supplies several other RFICs. Peregrine utilizes its proprietary UltraCMOS process, based on its Silicon on Sapphire (“SOS”) technology, to produce RFICs for the handset, infrastructure, test and
measurement, and aerospace markets.

Investment recommendation:

Based on our handset market analysis, we believe Apple could launch a refreshed iPhone 5S this summer or during Q3/C2013 versus our initial expectation for a launch in June. 

Consistent with our analysis, we believe Peregrine’s disappointing Q1/13 guidance is primarily due to its customer concentration with Apple.
While we anticipate much stronger H2/13 sales for Peregrine into LTE smartphones, including the refreshed iPhone 5S, we are lowering our
estimates due to our belief Apple will launch more affordable 3G-only iPhones resulting in reduced content share for Peregrine. We believe
Peregrine’s patented UltraCMOS provides competitive advantages such as better performance, improved integration, and lower power than
competing technologies especially for LTE smartphones.

We maintain our BUY rating, but reduce our price target to $13 from $17.


Investment highlights


 Given our expectations for a transitional Q2/13 for the iPhone, we have reduced our iPhone estimates for the June quarter resulting in
quarterly estimate adjustments to our Peregrine model. Please see our Apple note published today titled “Anticipate iPhone 5S summer
refresh; adjusting estimates for later launch” for further details on our iPhone estimate changes.


 We believe Apple could launch a mid-tier competitively priced iPhone ramping in 2014 for pre-paid international markets. Given our expectations for lower RFIC content in mid-tier iPhones that may include 3G-only SKUs as part of the broader iPhone portfolio in 2014, we have reduced our estimates for Peregrine’s dollar-content share per iPhone. This change results in us lowering our 2014 pro forma EPS estimate from $0.99 to $0.87.


Valuation:

Our $13 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 15x our 2014 pro forma EPS estimate.

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by jackbassteam on March 21, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Apple, Smartphones, Tech stocks
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on March 21, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/03/21/peregrine-semiconductor-updating-estimates-for-iphone-5-summer-launch/

Apple ANTICIPATE IPHONE 5S SUMMER REFRESH;

Image representing Apple as depicted in CrunchBase

Image via CrunchBase

AAPL : NASDAQ : US$454.49
BUY 
Target: US$600.00

Investment recommendation:

Based on  handset market analysis and discussions with suppliers, we believe Apple could launch a refreshed iPhone 5S this summer or during  3/C2013 versus our initial expectation for a launch in June. Further, with a host of impressive recently launched high-end Android smartphones expected to ramp in Q2/C2013, we believe Apple could lose smartphone market share during 1H/C2013 and have reduced our Q3/F2013 iPhone estimates.

Longer term, we maintain our belief Apple has a strong product pipeline that should result in reaccelerating Y/Y earnings growth during the Sept. quarter. We reiterate our BUY rating, but lower our price target to $600 from $650.
Investment highlights
 Based on our analysis of earnings and of near-term demand trends for component suppliers into the iPhone and post our meetings at MWC, we
believe Apple could launch a refreshed iPhone 5 later this summer or during Q3/C2013. We also believe Apple will launch a more competitively
priced mid-tier iPhone for pre-paid international markets and have adjusted our F2014 estimates and ASP assumptions.
 With a host of impressive Android smartphones ramping in 1H/C2013, including Samsung’s flagship Galaxy S 4, we believe Apple could lose
meaningful near-term market and profit share. Given our expectations for competitor smartphone ramps impacting iPhone sales during a
transitional Q2/C2013, we have lowered our June quarter iPhone estimates from 36M to 25M units. However, we have increased our September quarter iPhone estimates from 38M to 39.6M units to reflect an August launch for the iPhone 5S.
 Overall, we are lowering our F2013 EPS estimate from $45.70 to $43.59 and our F2014 EPS estimate from $53.68 to $50.00.
Valuation:

Our $600 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 12x our F2014 EPS estimate.

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by jackbassteam on March 21, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Apple, Smartphones
Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on March 21, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/03/21/apple-anticipate-iphone-5s-summer-refresh/

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