Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Green Mtn. Coffee (GMCR : NASDAQ : US$24.34)

August 21
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters presented last week at Canaccord Genuity’s 32nd Annual Global Growth Conference.

Consumer Products Analyst Scott Van Winkle says that the presentation was essentially a detailed expansion of the trends, strategy and developments discussed on its recent Q3 call. Investor focus was on the company’s K-cup and distribution channel strategies, including its new tiered pricing plan with the entry of 8 O’Clock Coffee this fall and continued distribution growth in supermarkets.

The roll-out of the new Vue brewer platform was also discussed, including a 2013 introduction of two additional versions of the brewer at price points that should drive higher share of new brewer sales (Vue was 2% share in its first full quarter of availability at a $250 price point. With management’s messaging and forecasting methodology improving, Van Winkle believes the consistency of results (vs. guidance) will continue to improve. He believes the next several quarters are of heightened importance, not only because of seasonal holiday implications, but also because they will provide the first glimpse into performance post-patent expiration in September.

Van Winkle believes revised guidance, predicated upon 15% share of private label (vs. traditional ~10% range), is adequately risk adjusted at this point. This assumption may be wrong, positively or negatively, but he believes GMCR management is rebuilding some investor confidence after discussing its new forecasting methodology in detail.

He  remains bullish on shares of GMCR, expecting several years of strong revenue and earnings growth driven by rising penetration of Keurig single cup coffee makers in North American households.