Trading Alert : Leon Black’s Sell-Everything Call

Depression - an idea whose time has come back!

 

When financier Leon Black said his Apollo Global Management LLC was exiting “everything that’s not nailed down” amid rising valuations, he made headlines. Two years later, other private-equity firms are following suit — dumping stakes into the markets at a record clip.

Firms including Blackstone Group LP and TPG Capital Management have been capitalizing on record stock markets around the world to sell shares, mostly in their companies that have already gone public. Globally, buyout firms conducted 97 stock offerings in the second quarter, more than in any other three-month period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Since Black made his comments in April 2013, the MSCI World Index has gained 18 percent, stretching valuations even higher. Headwinds that threaten to rattle global equities are everywhere — from the Greek and Puerto Rican debt crises to an eventual increase in U.S. interest rates.

“It’s clear that we are currently in an environment of frothy valuations,” said Lise Buyer, founder of IPO advisory firm Class V Group. “The insiders — those with the most knowledge — are finding this a very good time to take some money off the table.”

This year, private-equity firms sold $73 billion of their buyouts to the public, a record amount over a six month period, Bloomberg data show.

Hilton Deal

The biggest such deal this year came in May when Blackstone sold 90 million shares, or $2.69 billion worth, of hotel-chain Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. in a secondary offering. Blackstone took the company private in 2007 for $26 billion and did an IPO in December 2013, raising $2.7 billion. After the latest sale, Blackstone’s stake in Hilton fell to 46 percent from 82 percent before the IPO, Bloomberg data show.

The largest European exit so far this year was the $2.46 billion IPO of online car dealership Auto Trader Group Plc in London, where Apax Partners sold shares. In Asia, private-equity firm China Aerospace Investment Holdings Ltd. sold 2.3 million shares in a $2.12 billion IPO of China National Nuclear Power Co.

While the firms have been trimming their stakes in public companies, they’re doing fewer initial offerings in the U.S. PE-backed IPOs have had the slowest start to the year since 2010, selling $8.2 billion in stock.

The reason: Many of the larger companies that were swooped up during the buyout boom that ended in 2007 have already gone public. Today’s selling is largely private-equity owners getting out of those assets.

Fundraising Spree

“It’s been a lot more about harvesting public positions than creating new ones through IPOs,” said Cully Davis, co-head of equity capital markets for the Americas at Credit Suisse Group AG. “The markets are open and the financial sponsors are pretty astute about timing their exits.”

Buyout firms were also motivated to exit older positions as they seek investments for new funds, said Klaus Hessberger, co-head of equity capital markets for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The funds raised $438 billion last year, a post-crisis record, according to an April report by research firm Triago.

Selling to companies or other buyout shops was still the more popular way for private-equity firms to unload assets over the quarter. They sold $57 billion of assets in 284 sales in the second quarter, compared with $39 billion for stock sales, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In an echo of Leon Black, Frank Maturo, vice chairman of equity capital markets at UBS AG, said, “Private equity is selling everything that’s not bolted down. With the robust valuations in today’s market, they are accelerating monetizations of companies they own.”

Become The Keeper Of Your Own Future – Here’s Your Wealth Pathway

 

Thinking about taking action isn’t going to create wealth.

Reading this blog without taking action to create your International Business Corporation, using tax havens to reduce your tax burden – does not create wealth.

Government shutdowns, ridiculous breaches of privacy, massive debts…

All around, the news these days is bad. But I don’t need to remind you of that. You know as well as I the state of the world right now.

You also know you can’t rely on bungling politicians for help. What you may not realize is how to pull yourself out of this mess and take control of your own future.

How can you ensure that you and your family are ok, no matter what the rest of the world decides to do?

Become The Keeper Of Your Own Future

Not enough people realize this, but this is the key to establishing a secure financial future for you and your family.

This sounds like a simple change of mindset, but it’s not. We are all used to a lifetime of believing that the government is there to help, that no matter what happens, they’ll be there as a safety net.

In the 21st century, those days are over.

I can’t say it loudly enough: You are the one in the driver’s seat. You have the power to make the decisions that will shape your future, and that of your family.

And yes, it’s work. Managing your own destiny is harder than leaving it to others, but, when you recognize the consequences of not taking control of your own future, it’s a no-brainer. You’ve got to act. And you’ve got to act now.
This first critical step is really a personal commitment to yourself–a promise that you will take full responsibility for your own life.

I realize this can be a scary prospect. Some folks are so overwhelmed by this idea that they would rather leave things be.

In today’s world, nobody can afford to be dependent on any one economy…on any one government…or on any one currency.

The way to protect yourself is to diversify outside your home country’s borders. The reality of the world we’re living in is that this is the only effective strategy available to you…to me…to all of us.

It’s a simple insight. We all know about diversity when it comes to stocks and bonds. Yet few people realize the fundamental importance of taking this basic concept to the next level.

I’ve been in the room with educated, experienced investors, who’ve bragged of their diversified portfolios. They hold stocks, bonds, real estate…

But once I’ve probed a little deeper, I’ve often found that their portfolios all share one problem. All are “diversified” in U.S. dollars…their investments are all domiciled in the United States…and they’re all at the mercy of anyone’s lawsuit filed under the U.S. legal system, including suits after their retirement funds.

What happens to these “diversified” investors if the dollar radically declines in value?

What if an angry litigant attacks your assets with a frivolous lawsuit?

1) CONTACT Jack A. Bass and set up your corporation offshore.

2) Open a bank account offshore

3) open a trading account offshore

4) accumulate your wealth in a low tax jurisdiction.

To START –

email info@jackbassteam.com or

call Jack direct at 604-858-3202 ( no cost or obligation).

 

3 Stocks That Big Investors Like /Are Buying

When investment pros such as Warren Buffett, George Soros and Leon Coopermanput their money behind a company, it’s worth noting — especially when they do it together.

Of course, Wall Street’s best and brightest aren’t always in agreement, and when they’re not, things can get pretty heated. Take, for example, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn‘s epic showdown overHerbalife (HLF) or Dan Loeb’s sharp criticism of Warren Buffett.

Warren Buffett picked up a stake in 21st Century Fox (FOXA) in late 2014, and in 2015, he has continued to increase his position and now owns over 6.2 million shares.

During the first quarter of the year, Leon Cooperman joined the Oracle of Omaha in betting on FOXA with the purchase of 2.6 million shares, and Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global maintained its position of 16.8 million shares.

On June 11, news broke that Rupert Murdoch is preparing to step down as CEO of 21st Century Fox and hand over the reins to his sons, James and Lachlan. The company confirmed Tuesday that James will succeed his father as chief executive.

One interesting fact about how Murdoch’s exit will affect Buffett: Once Murdoch steps down, Buffett will increase his lead as the oldest CEO in the S&P 500

Adreas Halvorsen’s biggest new buy of the first quarter of 2015 was AIG (AIG – Get Report), of which he picked up 8.4 million shares valued at upwards of $460 million. Fellow hedge funder John Paulson picked up an even bigger stake in the insurance company, purchasing 14.6 million shares. Larry Robbins increased his position to 6.5 million shares, and Dan Loeb left his holdings untouched at 3.5 million shares.

In other words, AIG is pretty popular among Wall Street pros.
AIG made headlines Monday when a federal judge ruled that the U.S. acted beyond the bounds of its authority in its 2008 bailout of the company; however, the judge did not award any damages to former AIG chief executive, Hank Greenberg, who sought to win at least $25 billion for shareholders.

Through market close Wednesday, AIG’s stock has climbed more than 10% year-to-date.

The cheaper Chesapeake Energy (CHKGet Report) becomes, the more Carl Icahn buys — or that’s at least how it seems. The vociferous billionaire investor raised eyebrows in March when a regulatory filing revealed he had increased his stake in the energy company. He owns more than 73 million CHK shares, giving him an 11% stake.

Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates also upped the ante in Chesapeake Energy this year. In the first quarter, the fund nearly doubled its position. It owns about 450,000 of the company’s shares.

Chesapeake, a producer of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids, has been hit hard by falling oil prices. Through market close Wednesday, its stock has declined 60% over the past year, including about 38% in 2015 alone.

Analysts at Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to perform from outperform on June 11. “Based on the future strip benchmark oil and gas prices, we expect CHK to report losses of $544M this year and $833M next year, or $0.58 per share and $0.84 per share, respectively,” the firm said in an analyst note.

Stocks To Avoid : Chesapeake Our Top Avoid In Natural Gas,

occupy wall street cartoon

 

These are this Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations.

Check out Seeking Alpha for the unending series of article seeking  to pick the bottom – in natural gas, shipping , drilling and compare that to our consistent  AVOID ratings:

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) was downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer. That means that the firm now has no target to speak of, and the $13.06 closing price compares to a consensus price target of $15.67 and a 52-week range of $12.89 to $29.92. The downgrade was based on growing losses and a cash flow deficit.

Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD) was started as Outperform with a $10 price target (versus a $8.64 close) at Credit Suisse. The firm believes Rite Aid is one of the more compelling risk-reward profiles in the space and that it has a compelling M&A potential.

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) was raised to Outperform from Neutral and the target price was raised to $42 from $40 (versus a $36.81 close) at Credit Suisse. The firm believes that investors underappreciate its earnings potential, and the firm raised estimates to reflect the updated City Living pipeline.

Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) was started as Underweight with a price target of $14 (versus a $19.08 close) at Barclays. Transocean’s consensus price target is $14.17, and the 52-week range is $13.28 to $46.12.

Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with a price target cut to $57.00 from $74.00 (versus a $54.69 close) at Wedbush. Harley-Davidson has a consensus price target of $66.00 and a 52-week range of $53.04 to $72.37.

 

Compound Interest and an early start $16,000 = Millions

Ben and Arthur were friends who grew up together. They both knew that they needed to start thinking about the future. At age 19, Ben decided to invest $2,000 every year for eight years. He picked investment funds that averaged a 12% interest rate. Then, at age 26, Ben stopped putting money into his investments. So he put a total of $16,000 into his investment funds.

Now Arthur didn’t start investing until age 27. Just like Ben, he put $2,000 into his investment funds every year until he turned 65. He got the same 12% interest rate as Ben, but he invested 23 more years than Ben did. So Arthur invested a total of $78,000 over 39 years.

 

Peter Hodson’s Research Tools

 

 

With an ever expanding suite of metrics and ratios available to retail investors, deciding how to size up a prospective position in a company has never been more complicated. But does it have to be?

Peter Hodson, the founder and CEO of 5I Research joined BNN Wednesday to discuss the five basic things he looks for when analyzing companies.

RETURN ON EQUITY

It’s the amount of net income returned as a percentage of shareholder equity. Basically, it’s a measure of how much money you are making from a company versus how much money you put in.

“A good number is 20 percent, but some of the great companies can come in with 45 or 50 percent which basically means they are exceptionally profitable and you are making a lot of money from what’s being put into the company. It’s my favourite ratio by far,” said Hodson.

COMPANY GROWTH VERSUS INDUSTRY GROWTH

When a company is growing faster than its peers, you have a sure fire sign that something good is going on. It could be anything from a better product, to a faster growing consumer base, to better sales people. It doesn’t really matter, growth is growth.

“Magna International (MG.TO -0.13%) recently had a profit growth of 13 percent and volume growth of about the same versus the auto industry as a whole, which is growing at three or four percent. They are multiples better than the industry right now,” said Hodson.

PERFORMANCE DURING THE RECESSION

How a company weathers tough times says a lot about its fundamentals. Chances are if it fought its way through the worst economic conditions seen in a generation, it will continue to do reasonable well in more prosperous times.

“Priceline.com (PCLN-O) tripled their profits in the middle of the financial crisis. It’s a travel company and nobody was travelling,” said Hodson.

STOCK OWNERSHIP BY MANAGEMENT

It’s a good show of faith if the executives have some real skin in the game – not stock options – actual positions that show they believe in the company. If they drop the ball, you want them to hurt as bad as their shareholders.

“Constellation Software Inc. (CSU.TO 3.38%), it’s one of the best performing stocks on the TSX. The CEO owns about $360 million worth of stock and the executives are forced to put some of their bonuses into stock, not options, just pure stock. They are on the line with investors as well,” said Hodson.

MANAGEMENT’S ABILITY TO EXECUTE

Has the company met analyst expectation? Have they hit that mark consistently? Look for companies that regularly beat the street. It sounds simple, but that’s why Hodson likes it.

“What we look for is momentum, a company that can under promise and over deliver,” said Hodson.

 

 

TSX Venture Exchange: How are ‘zombie’ companies surviving? $ 500,000 To List Your Venture

Image result for stock market cartoons 2014

 

However one feels about the debate, all would agree that Mr. Bass’s research paints a frightening portrait of Canada’s junior exploration sector. It raises questions about how hundreds of tiny resource companies can continue to exist. Sources said that auditors are offering these companies cut-rate fees to maintain their viability.

The big numbers are grim: by Mr. Bass’s calculation, these “zombies” have combined negative working capital of greater than $2 billion. Raising money has become impossible for many of these junior firms as market conditions have deteriorated over the past few years. Now they are just “walking dead” companies with no serious prospects that pose a threat to investors looking at the sector- but an opportunity for his clients to gain a listing for about $500,000 Canadian cash investment and annual listing and audut fees of $35,000.

So why are they still around? Mr. Bass noted that TMX Group Inc. is a profitable corporation that relies on listing fees for revenue. He believes the exchange is failing to enforce its own rules, and also blames auditors and securities regulators for not doing enough to crack down on these companies and protect investors.

In some cases, the accounts payable in these tiny companies are owed largely to insiders, which shows they are putting their own money in to keep the firms going.

There is a legitimate debate to be had on whether it is in the interests of investors to have companies such as these on the public markets.

More Application Not More Analysis Is Needed

Do you have a tax  strategy ?

The most important thing that you MUST do is seek advice from a qualified advisor – Jack A. Bass, B.A. LL.B. (someone who understands international tax jurisdictions and tax law) . Your advisor must understand the benefits of particular offshore jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to take action.

 

Contact Information:

To learn more (at no cost or obligation)

Email info@jackbassteam.com  OR

Telephone  Jack direct at 604-858-3202

Monday – Friday 10:00- 4:00 Pacific Time Zone ( same as Los Angeles)

Do You Have A Plan – or are you just planning to think about a plan ?