Edwards Lifesciences

EW : NYSE : US$71.57
BUY 
Target: US$85.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Edwards Lifesciences manufactures minimally invasive medical devices for the cardiovascular market. Its primary product line is centered on heart valve therapy and includes tissue valves, mechanical valves, and repair products. It has a large offering for critical care, with key products for hemodynamic and pressure monitoring.

Investment recommendation


EW announced several important corporate developments yesterday: 1) the retirement of CFO Tom Abate, 2) the authorization of a $750M share repurchase program, and 3) the purchase of $5M of EW shares by CEO Mike Mussallem. We were surprised by the retirement of Mr. Abate but note his long and distinguished career with EW, and submit investors may welcome a fresh perspective on TAVI guidance. Mr. Abate will remain at the company until a CFO is in place to ensure a smooth transition for his successor.
We remain positive on EW’s long-term EPS growth prospects given the company’s first-mover advantage in what we continue to believe is a very large addressable US TAVI market, backed up by what we consider to be a strong product pipeline. Thus, we maintain our BUY rating and $85 price target.
Investment highlights
 The new share repurchase program brings the total amount available to buy back shares to ~$890M, including ~$140M remaining from its previous program.
 We estimate that the share buyback could contribute ~$0.08 to our 2013 EPS estimate and ~$0.34 to EPS in 2014E.
 We remain bullish about EW’s TAVI market opportunity and the ability of TAVI therapy to penetrate at least 30-40% of our targeted TAVI patient population of 100k patients per annum.

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by jackbassteam on May 16, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Life Sciences, Medical devices
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 16, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/16/edwards-lifesciences-3/

Sunshine Heart

English: The illustration shows the major sign...

English: The illustration shows the major signs and symptoms of heart failure. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

SSH : NASDAQ : US$5.45
BUY 
Target: US$12.50

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Sunshine Heart develops, manufactures and markets C-Pulse, a minimally invasive assist device to treat Class III heart failure. C-Pulse, which received C.E. Mark in July 2012, is based on the proven concept of intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) technology. Unlike IABPs, C-Pulse does not come in contact with circulating blood, which should negate thrombus formation and stroke risk. The company is listed on the Australian exchange and NASDAQ.

SOLID PROGRESS IN U.S. AND EUROPE; REITERATE BUY RATING
Investment recommendation
Sunshine Heart announced Q1 financial results that were in line with our expectations. What’s more, the company reported meaningful progress on its efforts to achieve U.S. regulatory approval for the C-Pulse system. During Q1, the company received IRB approval of the first U.S. trial site and activation of a second site (Minneapolis VA Medical Center), and appointed a surgical principal investigator (PI) for its COUNTER HF pivotal trial. In Europe, SSH announced that the German Heart Institute-Berlin has been activated as the first center for its OPTIONS HF post-market trial. The company is in the process of getting ethics panel approval at seven additional centers across Germany, Italy and the UK, and expects full activation of these sites by Sept. 1. We expect several patients to be enrolled in its European post-market trial through the balance of 2013 and 2014.
We remain positive on the long-term prospects for SSH’s differentiated technology in the treatment of Class III heart failure, thus reiterate our BUY rating and $12.50 price target.
Investment highlights
 SSH reported a Q1 net loss of $4.4M, or ($0.47) per share, a shade below our expectation of a net loss of $4.5M, or ($0.48) per share.
 SSH is discussing with physicians in the feasibility trial weaning additional patients given the positive effects on these sick patients during the feasibility trial.
 Complete feasibility study data expected to be published in major medical journal later this year.

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by jackbassteam on May 16, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Life Sciences, Medical devices
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 16, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/16/sunshine-heart/

Twin Butte Energy Ltd.

Official seal of Lloydminster

Official seal of Lloydminster (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

TBE : TSX : C$2.12
BUY 
Target: C$3.20

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Twin Butte Energy Ltd. is an intermediate producer focused on heavy oil development along the Lloydminster fairway of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The company adopted a yield plus modest growth strategy upon closing its acquisition of Emerge Oil & Gas in early 2012.

Investment recommendation
Twin Butte released first quarter results largely in line with its guidance and CG/consensus estimates. Despite headwinds from wide heavy oil differentials, strong condensate prices that factor in its blending costs, adverse weather, and isolated production challenges at Primate, Twin Butte maintained a payout ratio below 100% with average production down only 1.6% QoQ. We have maintained our BUY rating on the stock and target price of C$3.20, based on a 1.0x multiple to NAV and reflecting a 2013 EV/DACF multiple of 6.8 times.
Investment highlights
Q1 in line, no surprises. Production averaged 17,254 boe/d, in line with our estimate of 17,326 boe/d and consensus of 17,190 boe/d. CFPS of $0.13 was also in line with our $0.13 and consensus of $0.12.
Prudently scaled back CAPEX in January but narrowing differentials could enable re-acceleration in H2/13. Capital spending was previously scaled to $85 million (from $110 million) given isolated issues at Primate and widening heavy oil differentials. Given an improved differential outlook, we see potential for a H2/13 CAPEX increase of $5 to $10 million.
Payout ratio remains best in class; current dividend is solid. Twin Butte maintains one of the lowest total payout ratios amongst the high yield Intermediate E&P group with a total payout ratio pre/post DRIP of 100/95% on our 2013 estimates.
Valuation
Twin Butte trades at a 0.7x multiple to CNAV, a 5.2x EV/DACF multiple and $41,800 per BOEPD based on our 2013 estimates, compared to peer group averages of 0.7x CNAV, 7.8x EV/DACF and $64,400/BOEPD.

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by jackbassteam on May 16, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Energy, Intermediate
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 16, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/16/twin-butte-energy-ltd-2/

Stratasys More Than 3D Guns

English: Miniature turbine 3D print from Rapid...

English: Miniature turbine 3D print from Rapid 2006 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

( please also review our article on 3D Printing in yesterday’s blog)

SSYS : NASDAQ : US$83.39
BUY 
Target: US$95.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Stratasys Ltd. is a global provider of 3D printing solutions,including a wide range of 3D printers, consumable print materials and services. Stratsys Ltd. was formed with the merger of Stratsys and Objet in a stock-for-stock merger completed in December 2012. The combined company has an impressive portfolio of 3D printing and direct digital manufacturing solutions.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

Investment recommendation


We reiterate a BUY rating and increase our price target to $95 driven by gross margin upside and solid execution of cross selling implementation.
With services gross margins poised to rebound and management’s expectation to sustain a high corporate gross margin level, we believe 2013 EPS guidance is conservative when applying the midpoint of guidance for revenue. We therefore raise our EPS for 2013E to the high end of the range at $1.95, increase 2014E EPS to $2.63 off of the higher base, maintaining that EPS upside potential remains versus our revised numbers given management is executing on its cross-selling effort ahead of plan.
Investment highlights
 SSYS reported Q1/13A (Mar) earnings this morning. Revenues and EPS were $98.2 million and $0.43, compared to consensus estimates of $98.3 million and $0.38 and our estimate of $98 million and $0.37. Revenue increased 18% Y/Y (2% Q/Q) driven by 31% Y/Y growth in services (RedEye +42% Y/Y, Customer Services 25% Y/Y) and 16% Y/Y growth in products (Consumables +18% Y/Y, Printers +15% Y/Y)
 Management reiterated their F2013 targets, with revenue expectation of $430 million to $445 million (20% to 24 % Y/Y growth) and non-GAAP EPS expectation of $1.80 to $1.95.

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by jackbassteam on May 15, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in 3D Printing
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 15, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/15/stratasys-more-than-3d-guns/

TearLab Corporation

TEAR : NASDAQ : US$7.96
TLB : TSX
BUY 
Target: US$10.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
TearLab Corporation has commercialized a proprietary tear testing platform, the TearLab Osmolarity System, that enables eye care practitioners to test for highly sensitive and specific biomarkers using nanoliters of tear film at the point of care. Their first product measures tear film osmolarity for the diagnosis of dry eye disease (DED). The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Investment recommendation
TEAR crushed our Q1 bookings estimate driven by strong growth in its
Master’s program with large ophthalmology practices. We expect the
strong ramp to continue through FY13. We raise our price target to $10
from $8.
Investment highlights
 Strong Q1. TEAR reported very strong Q1 revenues of $2.5M (up 54% sequentially), which topped our/Street’s $2.2M estimates. TEAR booked 388 orders, well ahead of our 234E. TEAR placed 324 instruments in Q1, well ahead of our 114E and up from 103 in Q4.
 Master’s program paces growth. Multi-instrument placements into high-volume group ophthalmology practices accounted for over 40%
of its 388 bookings. Use of implementation specialists is helping practices implement testing.
 Strong ASCRS sets up Q2. TEAR had a good show at ASCRS, which gives us added confidence in our Q2 forecast of 375 orders.
 Sales force. TEAR ended Q1 with 27 direct reps, up from 23 in Q4.
 Model update. We increase our 2013 and 2014 revenue estimates to $15.5M (from $13.4M) and $30.1M (from $27.1M), respectively, as its Master’s program gains traction. Additional investment in sales and marketing spend keep our EPS estimates intact.
Valuation
We raise our price target to $10 from $8, which assumes a 5x P/S multiple to our 2015E sales of $65M, discounted at 15% to 2014.

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by jackbassteam on May 15, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Life Sciences
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 15, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/15/tearlab-corporation/

Crew Energy Inc.

Montney, British Columbia Location

Montney, British Columbia Location (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

CR : TSX : C$6.45
BUY 
Target: C$10.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Crew Energy is an intermediate oil and gas company with a large portfolio of exploration and development opportunities in western Canada. The company has a two-pronged approach to corporate development, supplementing organic growth with strategic acquisitions.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONTNEY


Investment recommendation
Crew released first quarter results which met our estimates but fell slightly shy of consensus on both production and cash flow. We believe the market will look beyond the quarter given the resumption in production levels which in our view clearly positions Crew to meet its average and annual guidance targets. Most importantly, it released an independent resource assessment on its 292 net sections of Montney rights in NEBC which in our view clearly validates management’s strategic shift towards resource capture in the play. We are maintaining our BUY rating and C$10.00 target price based on an unchanged 1.0x multiple to NAV and reflecting a 2013 EV/DACF multiple of 8.5 times.
Investment highlights
Q1 in line with CG, a bit light versus consensus. Q1 production averaged 25,961 boe/d, generally in line with our 26,267 boe/d estimate but modestly below consensus of 26,765 boe/d. Operating CFPS was $0.28, also in line with our $0.28 but below consensus of $0.30. More importantly, Crew has resumed production levels with an average of 28,000 boe/d in April and is on track to meet its annual average and exit
rate guidance targets.
All about the Montney, tremendous value upside potential in both oil and gas windows of the play. Sproule Associates estimated 33.7 Tcf of gas in place and 7 billion barrels of oil in place (over four times larger than ARC Resource’s recent TPIIP estimate). Precedent strategic gas transactions suggest its 2.3 Tcf of contingent resources could be valued between $0.15 to $0.35/Mcf, implying $2.80 to $6.60 per share to Crew.
Valuation
Crew currently trades at a 0.6x multiple to CNAV, 6.2x EV/DACF multiple, and $42,400/BOEPD based on our 2013 estimates, versus peer group averages of 0.7x CNAV, 7.8x EV/DACF, and $64,100/BOEPD.

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by jackbassteam on May 15, 2013  •  Permalink
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 15, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/15/crew-energy-inc/

3D Systems BUY Target $50

BrickArms BA-M5 and BA-M6 Prototypes

BrickArms BA-M5 and BA-M6 Prototypes (Photo credit: Dunechaser)

DDD : NYSE : US$43.85
BUY 
Target: US$50.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
3D Systems is a leading provider of rapid 3D printing, prototyping and manufacturing solutions used to create product concept models, precision and functional prototypes, master patterns for tooling, and end-use production parts for direct manufacturing. 3D Systems’ products allow complex three-dimensional objects to be manufactured directly from computer-aided design and manufacturing (CAD/CAM) software tools.

CONTINUED MULTIPLE EXPANSION
Investment recommendation
We are increasing our price target following healthy appreciation for DDD shares over the past month. While share count increases slightly on recent secondary, we believe DDD can deliver upside to consensus estimates driven by strong printer and services revenue. We also expect multiple expansion as the company moves into the commercialization phase for Bespoke (carpal tunnel braces) in H2 of this year. Reiterate BUY.
Investment highlights
 3D Systems completed a 7.5 million (includes 1.3 million insider shares) secondary share offering on Friday, May 10 before the open.
The secondary offering was priced at $40/share and DDD raised $300 million through the offering. DDD intends to use the proceeds to
finance further acquisitions and for general corporate purposes.
 We are adjusting our model for the share dilution. Our C2013 EPS is revised down from $1.12 to $1.06 and our C2014 EPS is revised down from $1.62 to $1.52. Our revenue estimates remain unchanged.
Valuation
DDD’s price target of $50 (was $45) is 33x our C2014 EPS estimate of $1.52, in line with Stratasys (SSYS : NASDAQ :$83.39 | BUY), which is
currently trading at 34x our C2014 EPS estimate. In the last two years on a NTM P/E basis, DDD has traded in the range of 16x to 43x compared to
SSYS at 16x to 47x.

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by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in 3D Printing
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/14/3d-systems-buy-target-50/

Stock Market Magic

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 30 % Return Annually

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by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in AMP Book

Posted by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/14/stock-market-magic/

Leisureworld Senior Care Corp.

Official Sod Turning Ceremony for Extendicare ...

Official Sod Turning Ceremony for Extendicare Long-Term Care Home, Port Stanley, 1976 (Photo credit: Elgin County Archives)

LW : TSX : C$12.98
BUY 
Target: C$15.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Leisureworld is an operator of Long-Term Care homes and seniors living facilities. The company owns and operates 26 LTC homes, representing a total of 4,134 beds and primarily located in the Greater Toronto Area. In addition, Leisureworld’s portfolio includes one retirement home, one independent living home, and two luxury retirement living residences. Beyond its core operations, Leisureworld also runs an accredited home healthcare business.

Investment recommendation


Leisureworld has entered into an agreement to acquire a portfolio of 1,235 LTC beds, 326 retirement home suites, and a third-party management business from Speciality Care Inc. (SCI) for a purchase price of $254.2 million. We expect that the acquisition will be immediately accretive – and 8.1% accretive to 2014 AFFO.
Investment highlights
 Increasing high quality LTC assets – Class A beds make up 85% of the acquired LTC portfolio. We believe that the improvement in overall Class A mix (from 54.1% to 60.8%) will optimize revenue from this segment and somewhat mitigates capital renewal risk.
 Retirement home expertise – We believe that the addition of Speciality Care’s Retirement Home management business brings in expertise to improve occupancy levels at existing homes and grow this higher-margin piece of the business.
 Appointment of new CEO –The extensive LTC and retirement home management experience that incoming CEO Lois Cormack (formerly
President of Specialty Care) brings to the table should be valuable in executing Leisureworld’s growth strategy.
Valuation
We value Leisureworld using an average of three methodologies; following inclusion of the Specialty Care acquisition, our models yield an
average valuation of $15.10 per share. Together with a projected yield of 6.0%, our revised C$15.00 target (increased from C$14.00) suggests a
12-month return of 21.6%, which supports our BUY rating.

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by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Senior Living
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/14/leisureworld-senior-care-corp/

Magna International Inc. BUY Target $ 75

Mila (concept car division of Magna-Steyr) Alp...

Mila (concept car division of Magna-Steyr) Alpin, 2008, seen at MOTOR SHOW ESSEN 2010 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

MGA : NYSE : US$64.71
MG : TSX
BUY
Target: US$75.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Magna is a one of the world’s largest and most diversified Tier 1 automotive components suppliers, active in 25 countries. The company also provides
complete vehicle assembly services through its subsidiary, Magna Steyr.

Substantial Q1/13 upside surprise, guidance increased MGA reported EPS of $1.57, ahead of our $1.44 and the consensus mean $1.44. Positive surprises versus our forecast were on European sales and margins. 2013 guidance was also modestly increased.
We boosted our near-term forecast slightly given the guidance and boosted our mid-term forecast more significantly to model better European margins (but consistent with management’s goals). EPS was also boosted by our assumption that all of MGA’s current 12 million share buy back will be utilized, per management’s commentary.
Solid EPS growth expected
MGA produced 18% EPS growth in 2012 from strong North American sales and improved European margins. We forecast annual EPS growth
to slow to high single-digit to low double-digit rates through mid-decade from expectations of slowing industry growth in North America,
eventual gradual recovery in Europe, and modest margin expansion. Solid upside, with additional potential
We continue to recommend BUYing MGA for solid EPS growth, modest multiple expansion, and the potential for additional value creation from
cash deployment and/or business streamlining.
We expect EPS growth from forecast low- to mid-single-digit sales growth, based on booked business and gradual margin improvements in
Europe and Rest of World (ROW) segments.
We have boosted our valuation 0.5x to a 5.5x EV/NTM EBITDA multiple, as we think there is increasing investor interest in consumer growth
cyclical stocks like MGA. Our valuation and target is supported by our $77.61 DCF analysis.
Our target was boosted nicely (17%) this quarter based on the forecast increase, benefit from our usual one-quarter valuation period roll forward,
and the valuation boost.

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by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Infrastructure
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/14/magna-international-inc-buy-target-75/

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