All posts tagged EPS

Stratasys More Than 3D Guns

English: Miniature turbine 3D print from Rapid...

English: Miniature turbine 3D print from Rapid 2006 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

( please also review our article on 3D Printing in yesterday’s blog)

SSYS : NASDAQ : US$83.39
BUY 
Target: US$95.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Stratasys Ltd. is a global provider of 3D printing solutions,including a wide range of 3D printers, consumable print materials and services. Stratsys Ltd. was formed with the merger of Stratsys and Objet in a stock-for-stock merger completed in December 2012. The combined company has an impressive portfolio of 3D printing and direct digital manufacturing solutions.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

Investment recommendation


We reiterate a BUY rating and increase our price target to $95 driven by gross margin upside and solid execution of cross selling implementation.
With services gross margins poised to rebound and management’s expectation to sustain a high corporate gross margin level, we believe 2013 EPS guidance is conservative when applying the midpoint of guidance for revenue. We therefore raise our EPS for 2013E to the high end of the range at $1.95, increase 2014E EPS to $2.63 off of the higher base, maintaining that EPS upside potential remains versus our revised numbers given management is executing on its cross-selling effort ahead of plan.
Investment highlights
 SSYS reported Q1/13A (Mar) earnings this morning. Revenues and EPS were $98.2 million and $0.43, compared to consensus estimates of $98.3 million and $0.38 and our estimate of $98 million and $0.37. Revenue increased 18% Y/Y (2% Q/Q) driven by 31% Y/Y growth in services (RedEye +42% Y/Y, Customer Services 25% Y/Y) and 16% Y/Y growth in products (Consumables +18% Y/Y, Printers +15% Y/Y)
 Management reiterated their F2013 targets, with revenue expectation of $430 million to $445 million (20% to 24 % Y/Y growth) and non-GAAP EPS expectation of $1.80 to $1.95.

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by jackbassteam on May 15, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in 3D Printing
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on May 15, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/15/stratasys-more-than-3d-guns/

3D Systems BUY Target $50

BrickArms BA-M5 and BA-M6 Prototypes

BrickArms BA-M5 and BA-M6 Prototypes (Photo credit: Dunechaser)

DDD : NYSE : US$43.85
BUY 
Target: US$50.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
3D Systems is a leading provider of rapid 3D printing, prototyping and manufacturing solutions used to create product concept models, precision and functional prototypes, master patterns for tooling, and end-use production parts for direct manufacturing. 3D Systems’ products allow complex three-dimensional objects to be manufactured directly from computer-aided design and manufacturing (CAD/CAM) software tools.

CONTINUED MULTIPLE EXPANSION
Investment recommendation
We are increasing our price target following healthy appreciation for DDD shares over the past month. While share count increases slightly on recent secondary, we believe DDD can deliver upside to consensus estimates driven by strong printer and services revenue. We also expect multiple expansion as the company moves into the commercialization phase for Bespoke (carpal tunnel braces) in H2 of this year. Reiterate BUY.
Investment highlights
 3D Systems completed a 7.5 million (includes 1.3 million insider shares) secondary share offering on Friday, May 10 before the open.
The secondary offering was priced at $40/share and DDD raised $300 million through the offering. DDD intends to use the proceeds to
finance further acquisitions and for general corporate purposes.
 We are adjusting our model for the share dilution. Our C2013 EPS is revised down from $1.12 to $1.06 and our C2014 EPS is revised down from $1.62 to $1.52. Our revenue estimates remain unchanged.
Valuation
DDD’s price target of $50 (was $45) is 33x our C2014 EPS estimate of $1.52, in line with Stratasys (SSYS : NASDAQ :$83.39 | BUY), which is
currently trading at 34x our C2014 EPS estimate. In the last two years on a NTM P/E basis, DDD has traded in the range of 16x to 43x compared to
SSYS at 16x to 47x.

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by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in 3D Printing
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/14/3d-systems-buy-target-50/

Magna International Inc. BUY Target $ 75

Mila (concept car division of Magna-Steyr) Alp...

Mila (concept car division of Magna-Steyr) Alpin, 2008, seen at MOTOR SHOW ESSEN 2010 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

MGA : NYSE : US$64.71
MG : TSX
BUY
Target: US$75.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Magna is a one of the world’s largest and most diversified Tier 1 automotive components suppliers, active in 25 countries. The company also provides
complete vehicle assembly services through its subsidiary, Magna Steyr.

Substantial Q1/13 upside surprise, guidance increased MGA reported EPS of $1.57, ahead of our $1.44 and the consensus mean $1.44. Positive surprises versus our forecast were on European sales and margins. 2013 guidance was also modestly increased.
We boosted our near-term forecast slightly given the guidance and boosted our mid-term forecast more significantly to model better European margins (but consistent with management’s goals). EPS was also boosted by our assumption that all of MGA’s current 12 million share buy back will be utilized, per management’s commentary.
Solid EPS growth expected
MGA produced 18% EPS growth in 2012 from strong North American sales and improved European margins. We forecast annual EPS growth
to slow to high single-digit to low double-digit rates through mid-decade from expectations of slowing industry growth in North America,
eventual gradual recovery in Europe, and modest margin expansion. Solid upside, with additional potential
We continue to recommend BUYing MGA for solid EPS growth, modest multiple expansion, and the potential for additional value creation from
cash deployment and/or business streamlining.
We expect EPS growth from forecast low- to mid-single-digit sales growth, based on booked business and gradual margin improvements in
Europe and Rest of World (ROW) segments.
We have boosted our valuation 0.5x to a 5.5x EV/NTM EBITDA multiple, as we think there is increasing investor interest in consumer growth
cyclical stocks like MGA. Our valuation and target is supported by our $77.61 DCF analysis.
Our target was boosted nicely (17%) this quarter based on the forecast increase, benefit from our usual one-quarter valuation period roll forward,
and the valuation boost.

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by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Automobile, Infrastructure
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on May 14, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/14/magna-international-inc-buy-target-75/

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage

Dietary supplements, such as the vitamin B sup...

Dietary supplements, such as the vitamin B supplement show above, are typically sold in pill form. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

NGVC : NYSE : US$25.20
BUY 
Target: US$30.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Currently operating over 65 store locations, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage is a retailer focused exclusively on natural and organic groceries (60% of sales), dietary supplements (30% of sales), and body/pet care products and health-minded books (collectively 10% of sales). Store locations span 13 states primarily across the Western US, with a particular geographic concentration in Colorado (31 stores) and Texas (10 stores).

Investment recommendation
We believe Natural Grocers is well positioned in a favorable industry with a growth equation that should drive high revenue and earnings growth. We anticipate high-single-digit comps and 20% unit growth should drive industry leading internal growth.
Investment highlights
 NGVC delivers $4.5 million of revenue upside vs. our forecast on a 10.6% comp. EPS was a penny above consensus while F2013 EPS guidance was unchanged.
 F2013 guidance appears very achievable while increased unit growth (now 13 vs. 12) adds a penny to our F2014 EPS estimate to $0.61. F2013E EPS of $0.48 is unchanged.
 New unit visibility is improved with all of F2013 leases signed, as well as 4 in F2014, while virtually all of the 2014 new locations have been identified.
Valuation
The shares sport a premium valuation of 13x F2014E EBITDA reflecting the 20% unit growth and 10+% comps. Our $30 target (from $24) assumes 12.5x our preliminary C2015 EBITDA forecast in the $50+M range.

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by jackbassteam on May 13, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Retail Stores
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 13, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/13/natural-grocers-by-vitamin-cottage/

Trinidad Drilling Ltd.

A petroleum drilling rig capable of drilling t...

A petroleum drilling rig capable of drilling thousands of feet (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

TDG : TSX : C$7.06
TDG.DB : TSX
BUY 
Target: C$8.50

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Trinidad Drilling Ltd. is a Canadian based drilling contractor with operations in western Canada, southern US and Mexico. Trinidad’s rig portfolio is largely comprised of deeper rigs. The company also operates coring rigs, surface hole rigs and barge rigs.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

Investment recommendation
EPS (ex-FX gain) of 29c came in ahead of consensus of 26c. EBITDA of $85 million beat consensus of $80 million but was just shy of our $88 million forecast. The consensus beat is attributed to better than expected results from the company’s Canadian drilling division. TDG’s Canadian fleet realized 73% utilization vs the industry average of 58%, due to both high demand for the company’s relatively high performance fleet and management’s ability to crew virtually all of its rigs in a seasonally busy period. The division’s result drove overall company outperformance, as TDG’s -3% y-y decline in total company revenues and -8% y-y decline in total company EBITDA represented outperformance vs peers (other drillers active in both Canada and the US reported flat to -21% y-y declines in revenues and -10% to -27% y-y declines in EBITDA over the quarter).

However, we note that in order to satisfy high customer demand, TDG pushed the repairs and maintenance costs it typically incurs in the first quarter into the remainder of the year. Considering this near-term cost reallocation, but also our belief that TDG has a higher performance rig fleet that should continue to outperform longer term, we have revised our 2013/14E EPS from 60c/75c to 57c/80c. Rolling forward the estimates used to derive our target price from 2013 to 2014, our target price increases from C$8.10 to C$8.50. We note our revised target price reflects 4.5x 2014E EV/EBITDA and 10.6x 2014E P/E target multiples.
Divergence between higher vs lower performance fleets continues to surface:

On TDG’s 1Q13 results call, management noted that “older style equipment is being particularly impacted” during softer pockets of demand. We note not only are higher-performance rigs competing for the same work as lower-performance ones, but also that the ownership of NAM oil and gas assets is generally shifting towards larger-cap E&Ps, NOCs and supermajors who place higher value on top-tier equipment vs their small-mid cap E&P peers.

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by jackbassteam on May 13, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Drilling Companies
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 13, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/13/trinidad-drilling-ltd/

RDA Microelectronics

RDA : NASDAQ : US$9.98
BUY 
Target: US$17.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
RDA Microelectronics designs, distributes, and markets RFIC, connectivity, and baseband solutions primarily to Chinese handset OEMs and ODMs. While RDA’s sales are primarily into the 2G market, RDA has introduced 3G power amplifier products and has EDGE and 3G baseband products on its 2013 roadmap to address the growing smartphone market.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

PRODUCTS SHOULD CONTINUE GM EXPANSION


Investment recommendation:

RDA reported strong Q1/13 results and guided Q2/13 sales and gross margin slightly above our estimates.
Following the acquisition of Coolsand, we believe RDA’s baseband portfolio has significantly increased its addressable market as evidenced by strong recent sales results. Further, we believe RDA’s roadmap that integrates its connectivity and RFIC solutions with its baseband platform
is well positioned in low- and mid-tier handset markets, and this should expand RDA’s dollar content share per handset in the near 1B unit
Chinese OEM handset market. In addition, we believe RDA remains on track to achieve volume sales of both EDGE baseband and 3G PA solutions in 2H/13 that should drive sales growth and steadily improving gross margin.

We maintain our BUY rating and increase our PT to $17.
Investment highlights
 RDA reported Q1/13 sales of $97.2M and pro forma EPS of $0.28 versus our $96.6M/$0.25 estimates. RDA posted strong sales of the higher margin 8851 baseband solution, including record baseband sales during March post Chinese New Year. In fact, RDA management shared a 40% 2G baseband market share goal for 2013 within the Chinese OEM market, and we estimate RDA will ship roughly 200M baseband chips in 2013, up over 100% Y/Y.
 With an improving mix of higher-margin baseband and connectivity products, including a new cost optimized solution to help offset
persistent pricing pressure in the 2G PA market, we anticipate modestly improving gross margin trends throughout 2013 with 35% remaining RDA’s medium-term target post the Coolsand acquisition.
 Given RDA’s market exposure and strong product roadmap, we have increased our 2013/14 operating expense estimates we expect will remain roughly 16% of sales. However, strong sales trends still result in an increase to our 2013 pro forma EPS estimate from $1.50 to $1.56 and our 2014 estimate from $1.80 to $1.87.
Valuation:

Our $17 (was $16) price target is based on shares trading at roughly 9x our 2014 pro forma EPS estimate

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by jackbassteam on May 9, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Mobile, Tech stocks, Telecommunications
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on May 9, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/09/rda-microelectronics/

Aspen Technology BUY  Target: US$35.00

Image representing Aspen Technology as depicte...

Image via CrunchBase

AZPN : NASDAQ : US$30.48
BUY 
Target: US$35.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Aspen provides software and services to process-intensive industries such as oil & gas, petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. The company’s products aid in process design, production planning, economic evaluation and simulation across three core areas – engineering, plant operations and supply chain management.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

Investment thesis


We believe Aspen’s business momentum is intact, estimates are amply conservative and the stock’s FCF multiple is about right. We do not believe the forthcoming retirement of CEO Mark Fusco presages trouble. Therefore, we expect AZPN shares to advance in line with cash flow growth that we see averaging in the mid-teens over the next several quarters. A near-term positive catalyst is likely to be AZPN’s User Conference and Analyst Day on Monday, May 6th. Reiterate BUY.
Another solid quarter. LTCV growth of 12.9% (to $1.58B) and FCF of $58M were both nicely ahead of our 12.5% and $52M estimates. Annual spend growth of 11% was below our 12.3% estimate, but was impacted by 1.5% due to a Venezuelan renewal that hit just after the quarter closed. For those tracking less relevant metrics like revenues and EPS, those were both nicely ahead of estimates as well – revenues of $79.4M compared to our $73.0M estimate and EPS of $0.13 beat our $0.05.
Outlook: FCF and LTCV ranges inched higher again, likely still conservative. AZPN increased its F2013 FCF target by $10M to $130M and narrowed LTCV growth to 10-11%. With one quarter to go in the fiscal year, we believe both targets are conservative and our estimates are slightly ahead of the guidance. We expect to get more color on the firm’s long- and intermediate-term targets at Monday’s analyst day in Boston.
Valuation and price target. We are increasing our price target by $1 to $35, which is based on 20x our C2014 FCF/share estimate of $1.61 plus roughly $3.00 in prospective net cash per share.

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by jackbassteam on May 2, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in software
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Posted by jackbassteam on May 2, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/02/aspen-technology-buy-%ef%80%a0-target-us35-00/

Integrated Device Technology

This logo is the stacked version of the Integr...

This logo is the stacked version of the Integrated Device Technology Inc. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

IDTI : NASDAQ : US$6.93
BUY 
Target: US$9.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
IDT designs, develops, manufactures and markets a  range of semiconductor products for the communications, computing and consumer industries.
Computing products are designed for use in desktops, notebooks, workstations and server applications while consumer products are optimized for gaming consoles, set-top boxes, digital TV and smartphones. Communications products are designed for use in networking and telecom applications.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

BOOKINGS STRENGTH IN CORE BUSINESS
Investment recommendation
We reiterate a BUY rating as healthy top-line guidance is offset by incremental spending for wireless chargers and NVMe. New products remain on track for strong Y/Y growth, while communications, memory interface and even PC clocks see improving demand. We expect opex to decline Q/Q from the Sept Q onward with the resulting leverage driving the shares higher.
Investment highlights
 IDTI reported CQ1/13A (Mar) after the close. Revenues and EPS were $108.5 million and $0.01, compared to consensus estimates of $107M/$0.01 and our estimates of $108M/$0.01. Revenue of $108.5 million came in at the mid-point of the guided range driven by weakness in core products partially offset by strength in new products and EPS of $0.01 was in line with guidance driven by flat operating expenses and better gross margins.
 Management guided revenue and EPS of $116 million (+7% Q/Q) and $0.04 at the mid-point, compared to consensus expectations of $113 million and $0.05. Management expects operating margin expansion through F2014 driven by opex reductions.
Valuation
 IDTI’s price target of $9 is 16x our C2014 EPS estimate of $0.45
plus net cash of $2.01/share.

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by jackbassteam on May 1, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Tech stocks, Telecommunications
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on May 1, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/01/integrated-device-technology/

Roper Industries

Roper Industries

Roper Industries (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

ROP : NYSE : US$118.68
HOLD 
Target: US$128.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Roper is a diversified growth company focused on the design, manufacturing and distribution of products and software for segments of multiple specialty end markets including energy, radio frequency (RF) technology, water, security, research/medical and education, among others.

Investment recommendation


Management execution is impressive, as margin expansion and cash generation continue to outperform. Recent investments (Sunquest, MHA)
look to drive even stronger returns, even as ’13 growth stays more H2 weighted. While we find a premium warranted given a track record of
value creation, we find nearer-term risk/reward more balanced.
Investment highlights
 Record order flow (particular strength in RF) drives good visibility (b2b 1.07, backlog >$1B), while comps get much easier in H2/13.
The accretive MHA acquisition is expected to close May 1, as next major M&A investment likely materializes in ’14.
Margin expansion continues (across all segments), with consolidated GM +240bps y/y to 57.4%. FCF also stays impressive ($160M, 128%
NI conversion), with full-year OCF expected >$800M. Guidance gets adjusted for MHA (organic growth unchanged), though more backend
loaded vs. the Street.
 Our revenue/adjusted EPS estimates update to account for the addition of MHA as follows: F2013E to $$3.31B/$5.83 (from $3.29B/$5.72); F2014E to $3.58B/$6.45 (from $3.46B/$6.30).
Valuation
Our 12-month target of $128 equates to ~11.5x our 2014 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $1.26B.
Risks
M&A integration, competition, macro conditions, FX fluctuations,
commodity costs, and leadership succession.

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by jackbassteam on May 1, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in software, Tech stocks
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on May 1, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/05/01/roper-industries/

BE Semiconductor Industries N.V.

Flip Chip, flipped, attached to the carrier, u...

Flip Chip, flipped, attached to the carrier, underfilled, illustration made for Flip Chip (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

BESI : ENXT : €6.83
BESIY : OTC
BUY 
Target: €8.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (Besi) develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor assembly equipment designed to increase productivity, improve yields of defect-free devices and reduce cost of ownership. The company’s products are designed for use in two manufacturing  echnologies: leadframe assembly and wafer level packaging.

ADVANCED PACKAGING DRIVES UPSIDE
Investment recommendation
We reiterate a BUY rating on shares of BESI following strong results and
guidance. We believe BESI will benefit from continued strong demand
for flip chip die bonding advanced packaging systems from new Asian
subcontractors in the smartphone and tablet supply chain. We expect
EPS to benefit from expanding gross margins and tighter opex controls.
We are increasing our estimates and raising our price target to €8.00.
Investment highlights
 BESI reported Q1/13A (Mar. Revenues and EPS were €64 million and €0.10, compared to our estimates of €59 million and €0.03. Revenue was up 14% Q/Q (+15% Y/Y), and came in above guidance of 5% sequential growth, driven by strong demand for advanced packaging systems. EPS benefited from better-thanexpected gross margins (39.6% vs. guide of 37%-39%).
 Management guided Q2 revenue to be up 10% Q/Q, based on the 23% sequential order increase in Q1 and continued strong demand for advanced packaging systems.
Valuation
BESI’s price target of €8.00 (was €7.00), is 8x our C2014 EPS estimate of €0.78 plus net cash of €1.72/share.

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by jackbassteam on April 26, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Tech stocks, Telecommunications
Tagged , , , , , , ,

Posted by jackbassteam on April 26, 2013

http://amp2012.com/2013/04/26/be-semiconductor-industries-n-v/

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