H&R REIT ACQUISITION OF PRIMARIS RETAIL REIT

H&R REIT 
HR.UN : TSX : C$23.35

Pirate investing

Pirate investing (Photo credit: RambergMediaImages)


BUY 
Target: C$27.00 

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:


H&R REIT is a diversified commercial real estate investment trust with a high quality portfolio of office properties, singletenant industrial properties, retail properties and development projects. Its strategy focuses on long-term leases with creditworthy tenants, matched with long-term fixed rate financing to provide stable and predictable income to unitholders.

H&R REIT completed the acquisition of Primaris Retail REIT on April 4, 2013, acquiring a portfolio of 27 properties (primarily enclosed shopping centres) located across Canada for $3.1 billion, equating to a going-in cap rate of 5.6%. Of note, one property acquired from Primaris is slated to be  sold to RioCan REIT for $35 million. To fund the acquisition, H&R REIT issued ~62.1 million units to Primaris unitholders, assumed ~$1.4 billion of debt, and utilized cash on hand of ~$100 million. This transaction culminates several months of competing for control of Primaris.
We believe that the acquisition of a portfolio of high quality Canadian enclosed shopping mall assets is a positive development for H&R REIT,
particularly over the long term. Through the Primaris transaction, H&R has acquired a large portfolio of properties within an asset class that is highly sought after and almost impossible to duplicate; we note that Primaris owned the only sizable publicly traded portfolio of urban enclosed shopping malls in Canada.

While the integration of major acquisitions takes a significant investment of effort and time, we note that H&R is also acquiring Primaris’ operating platform, which should smooth the transition.
Maintaining BUY rating, but reducing target price to C$27.00 from C$28.00.
We are reducing the cap rate utilized to calculate our estimate of NAV for H&R REIT to account for the lower cap rate attributed to the newly acquired retail assets from Primaris; our utilized cap rate is now 6.00% (from 6.25%). Our estimate of NAV per unit declines slightly from $25.33 to $24.55, reflecting the increased unit count following the equity issued concurrent with the Primaris acquisition, as well as an increase in our adjustment for the mark-to-market of debt, as interest rates have declined since NAV was last calculated. Following the completion of the Primaris acquisition, we are reducing our target price for H&R REIT to C$27.00 (from C$28.00) to reflect the slight decline in our NAV per unit estimate.

Our target price is based on a 10% premium to our revised NAV estimate of $24.55 per unit. Combined with an annualized distribution of $1.35 per unit, our C$27.00 target price equates to a 12-month forecast total return of 21%. We continue to rate H&R REIT a BUY.

Altus Group Limited

Property Taxes Icon

Property Taxes Icon (Photo credit: danielmoyle)

AIF : TSX : C$8.50
BUY 
Target: C$11.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Altus Group is a national provider of real estate consulting and advisory services in Canada. Services include property tax appeals, property valuation for acquisitions and public reporting purposes, provision of cost estimates for major development projects, and land surveying.

Investment recommendation


We are reiterating our BUY rating on Altus shares but lowering our target price to C$11.00 from C$11.25 following the Q4/12 print. In our view, Altus provides investors with not only an attractive 7.1% dividend yield, but also the opportunity for significant capital appreciation. We
believe Altus’ 27% equity stake in Real Matters (RM) contains potential hidden value, while ARGUS represents upside risk potential to our
financial forecast. Last, the recovering US economy and desire for independent real estate advice should provide Altus with numerous
growth opportunities.
Net revenue was $73.9 million, a 2% decrease y/y and slightly below our $74.7 million estimate. Gross margin was 58 bps lower than expected
while SG&A was in line, bringing EBITDA to $11.4 million (15.4% margin), slightly below our $12.1million (16.3% margin) estimate. EPS was ($0.94) and included a $22.5 million or $0.98 per share impairment charge against the carrying value of ARGUS Software. Notwithstanding
this, we remain confident about the future prospects of ARGUS.
Management expects restructuring charges totaling $1.1 million in Q1/13 mostly related to employee severance costs.
We expect 10% EBITDA growth in 2013. RVA should build on the 19% EBITDA growth posted in 2012 thanks to a full year of the CalPERS and
PRIM contracts. Tax should benefit from the opening of tax assessment cycles in ON and QC. Management sounded confident in ARGUS’ prospects. Geomatics should be flat, but pipeline work represents upside risk potential, while we see flat Cost results. We have adjusted our estimates for the quarter, leading to a 25 cent target price decrease to C$11.00.

Zillow Founders Meeting

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Z

NASDAQ :

US$45.59)
Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff, founders Lloyd Frink and Rich Barton, and VP of Rentals (& former CEO of Rentjuice) David Vivero. :
Analyst  believe rentals could contribute lightly to revenue in 2013 with a greater impact in 2014.

Graham continues to believe Zillow is attacking a large, nascent market with alacrity. Zillow hopes to bring ~1 million rental listings onto the platform by year-end, which would be ~1,000 additions per day for the rest of the year. Once this milestone is reached, management believes it can pursue monetization through several mechanisms.

Graham believes there is a “micro-TAM” of rental property manager marketing spend available for an online platform like Zillow’s that is greater than $500 million annually. In other updates, Graham believes Zillow’s broker relationships remain strong, an expanding real estate market is good for business, and the recently announced Google Now partnership could contribute meaningfully to visitor growth. Zillow operates a leading
network of real-estate sites with a clear mission to provide vital services to most of the real estate supply chain, including homeowners, buyers, sellers, renters, real estate agents, mortgage professionals, landlords, and property managers.

Tricon Capital Group Investor Day Update

Single-family home

Single-family home (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Oct. 29

Tricon Capital Group Inc.

TCN : TSX : C$5.65  BUY  Target: C$6.20

San Francisco Bay Area investment highlights.  U.S. Housing Recovery

Investor day and property tour hosted by Tricon, which provided attendees with exposure to certain developments within Tricon’s US funds and properties recently acquired as part of the company’s new single-family home rental strategy. 

Most importantly, we gained significant insight into one of Tricon’s newest initiatives – investment in single-family homes. Management  believes that the current state of the US housing market presents a ‘once-in-a-generation’ opportunity to profit in a very meaningful way from investing in single-family homes as the housing market recovers from trough levels. Overall, we have a positive view of Tricon’s single family  home rental strategy, which we believe is a compelling opportunity that utilizes the capabilities of knowledgeable and experienced local partners to execute on its strategy.

We do note, however, that with competition for single-family home investments elevating, we believe the ‘window of opportunity’ to acquire distressed homes at Tricon’s target metrics may have started to narrow. We therefore expect that Tricon will likely have to enter into new markets and/or modestly adjust its return expectation in order to continue its growth in its single-family home rental strategy. That said, Tricon’s strong track record and solid investment strategy give us confidence that its single-family rental investments should, in the end, be successful. Reiterating BUY rating and C$6.20 target price. 

Tricon very capable and experienced real estate investor/fund manager with a solid track record of achieving attractive returns on its investments for investors in its funds. Our target price of C$6.20 is based on a 5% discount to our sum-of-the-parts value of $6.54 per share (unchanged).

Combined with an annual dividend of $0.24 per share, our forecast total return is 14.0%. We maintain our BUY rating for Tricon.

China – Is The Chinese Economy Stabilizing ?

Dong Da

Dong Da (Photo credit: Hanoi Mark)

October 19

One of our Speculative positions – added to the Watchlist today is DRYS – it will recover only when Chinese demand for coal and iron ore pushes charter rates ( Baltic Index ) higher.  All commodity plays were hurt from the recent China slowdown – except Gold and Precious Metals. We are watching – not buying unless and until we see that turn.

China’s economy expanded 7.4% yoy and 2.2% qoq in Q3/12, broadly in line with expectations and compared with 7.6% and 2.0% respectively for Q3/12. On a qoq annualized basis, the economy was growing at a 9.1% pace, compared with 8.2% in the last quarter. Industrial production grew by 9.2% yoy in September, better than Bloomberg consensus of 9.0% and 8.9% the prior month.

Fixed asset investment rose 20.5% yoy on a year-to-date basis, Credit Suisse Chief Economist for Non-Japan Asia Dong Tao estimates that the FAI for September alone rose 22% yoy. While retail sales saw a 14.2% yoy increase, beating market expectations of 13.2%. Dong believes the Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization, and says the Chinese government is less likely to launch large-scale stimulus. Dong senses that leaders in China feel more comfortable about managing the economy than the market feels, and the latest data seemed to suggest that the leaders were right.

Dong believes China’s economy has bottomed for four reasons:

1) Property market saw a significant pick up in transaction and construction activities;

2) Infrastructure investment is on the rise again, albeit from a low base;

3) Improved export orders from the U.S. lately; and

4) Consumption has remained resilient.

The economy expanding around 7% is mediocre by the Chinese standards, but reduced risk for a hard landing itself should be market positive, in his opinion, especially given how negative the market feels about the Chinese economy at this moment. Dong maintians his growth forecast after the latest GDP data. Currently, he projects 7.5% for both 2012 and 2013. Over the next 12 months, Dong is less worried about growth per se, but more concerned about cash flows at the corporate level, as the debt that accumulated during the boom time may haunt when account receivables are on the rise.

Barron’s Housing Predictions – Too Many and Too Early


Barron’s: Home Prices Heading Up 7%

Posted: 09 Sep 2012 09:00 AM PDT

 

The Barron’s cover story this week is about how Home prices are heading higher. It is their third Housing Bottom story since 2008.

We’ve covered each of these in great detail over the years, but what the hell, once more won’t hurt:

• The explosion in home construction this cycle has totally and utterly exceeded all previous home construction booms. Its so much larger than any expansion over the past 40 years as to make the prior 1M drop meaningless (see chart at top);

• Housing completions passed the minus 1MM figure a year ago — you could have called a housing bottom in August 2007 by the same logic . . .

• An unprecedented 10% of homes built after 2000 stand vacant, according to Stansberry & Asssociates Investment Research;

• In just about every area of the country, the ratio of sale prices to per-capita income remains significantly elevated over its historical averages. And, that assumes there won’t be a significant economic downturn. As of July 12 2008, a significant recession is looking increasingly likely;

• Sales have ticked up several times, only to be revised lower in subsequent months. And, the selling season improves each month, from January (the slowest month) to August. Seasonal adjustments sometimes seem to not fully reflect this.

• Median Sale Prices are rising not because home prices are going up, but because less of the inexpensive homes are selling (i.e., smaller starter houses) . The mix of homes — not price increases — are skewing the numbers;

• By nearly every traditional metrics, Home prices remain extremely elevated; Median Price to Median Income or Homes vs. Rentals. All of these imply further price adjustment towards the historical norms;

 

Barry Ritholtz repeats – Barron’s Is Wrong ( AGAIN).

Join The Canadians Buying U.S. Housing

Sept. 5, 2012Join The Canadians Buying U.S. Housing 

At the depths of the New York commercial real estate market the Reichmans bought a group of office towers .  The New York Times described that purchase as occurring at 11:45 before the day the market turned up.Warren Buffett was recently quotes as saying that if he had the capacity he’d buy up 1000’s of homes to take advantage of the market.

Today many predict that there is about to be the long  sought/ predicted turn in housing in the U.S.  In Canada there are weekend seminars on buying  U.S. properties but individual investors have few choices outside of home builders. .  Self anointed gurus are promoting  ( mainly ) Arizona and California single family homes  and multi-unit investments.  An individual is limited if their option is one home .For an investor there is a publicly traded Canadian company buying properties on a national basis and in amounts that offer both diversity and leverage.

Tricon Capital ( TCN on Toronto – website www.triconcpital.com)  describes itself as a leading residential real estate investment company with over $1 billion in assets. It offers a size and diversity which is large by Canadian standards but a small cap by U.S. measurement. In addition to Canadian assets it has raised capital for projects in California , Texas, Arizona , Georgia and Florida. A caution is that – in addition to predicting a turn in the market – these U. S. investments are only at a starting point . The Company through partnerships has purchased more than 400 homes with the intention of renovating  and renting properties – awaiting a turn in valuations . Some properties will be listed for sale after renovation. In July it raised $51 Million in convertible debentures to fund the acquisitions. That money will go into several projects as the company contribution and as with most real estate ventures the funds are leveraged by way of mortgage financing .The results of the first series of purchases – the company states – will not benefit its financials until the last quarter of 2012 because it will take two to three months to upgrade the newly acquired homes.

The Company raises funds through partnerships and then earns a fee as a manager and a further fee based on performance – in addition to the return it sees as an investor. One recent example is a partnership to purchase 242 homes in Florida. This is the fourth such partnership  in 2012 in the U.S. The company’s U.S. distressed single-family strategy appears to be progressing well. In its Q2/12 results (reported August 13), Tricon had advanced $32 million towards the purchase of 185 distressed single-family homes with its three operating partners. Currently, the total number of homes has grown to 420, of which approximately 50 homes will be renovated for immediate sale and the remainder will be held as rental units. This business appears to be the key growth driver for Tricon, and management expects to have $90-100 million invested in this strategy by the end of 2012.

 

The Company reported a profit of $2.159,000  (  $.08 )for the quarter ending June 30,2012 compared to a loss of $ 509,00 ( $.03) the prior year. Assets under management were $ 1.2 billion – up $200 Million ( all figures are reported in Canadian dollars).

There is a further caution. In addition to these U.S. housing projects being at a start-up stage the shares trade at a very modest daily number ( 25,000 plus).  Therefore use market orders and stage your investment  if you are going to make a purchase in Tricon ( $5.32 on August 31) .

 

Insider Buying : CEO David Berman purchased 100,000 Tricon shares in the public market at an average cost of $5.50. Berman now holds 3,930,355 shares representing 12.6% of Tricon. In addition to his stock holdings, Berman also holds $1 million worth of Tricon’s recently issued 6.375% Convertible debentures due 08/31/2017 

I own shares in Tricon but will not be making any additional purchases in the next 72 hours .

 

 

 

Zillow – Strong Growth / Evolution Target $45

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Image via CrunchBase

Zillow | Michael Graham
Z : NASDAQ : US$41.76 | Buy , Target US$45.00 

August 10
• Strong Q2 results; guidance likely conservative; maintaining BUY recommendation, raising target to $45 (from $42)
Summary
Zillow reported another strong quarter highlighted by outsized growth in PA subs, a mostly optical sequential decline in ARPU, and further evolution from marketing channel to solutions platform for real estate professionals.
Key Points
• “Third slot” monetization and Premier Silver Agents (who signed up for the free website feature) brought in ~4k new PA subs, mostly late in the quarter, compared with our estimate of ~1.8k. Generally, we now model more subs at a lower ARPU, but our revenue estimates go up.
Leverage remains robust, with nearly all incremental revenue falling to the bottom line. Expenses stay high this year but we see potential for
considerable leverage next year.
• As it buys and builds technology and incorporates it into a growing platform, Zillow is rapidly adding new services (Web sites, Z-Pro) and verticals (Mortgages, Rentals) that are raising the competitive stakes in this fast growing sector.
• We raise our EPS estimates for 2012, 2013, and 2014 $0.35, $0.78, and $1.42.
Valuation
Our new price target of $45 (up from $42) reflects 40x our new 2014 EPS  estimate of $1.42 (up from $1.32), discounted to present at a rate of 12.1%.

 

Zillow – Not Snozzing – Cruising Into Profits

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Image via CrunchBase

Zillow (Z) : NASDAQ : US$30.60 |Buy , Target US$45.00

Thesis: Steady progress, potential for new revenue streams; maintaining 


Summary
Progress at Zillow has been steady
since the company reported strong Q4 results on Feb 15.

Over the course of 2012 important new revenue streams may become evident, driving continued operating momentum.
Hiighlights
• Unique User growth remained strong in February.

Forecast :UU growth to slow from 85% in 2011 to 68% in 2012, but note that rapid growth of mobile app usage could provide upside.
Zillow Mortgage Marketplace will see increasing emphasis and visibility, and could emerge as an important revenue driver as soon as this year.
• The next potential driver of revenue growth could come from the rental
market, an opportunity which Zillow is just beginning to develop.
• We continue to expect operating leverage to progress smoothly on an annual basis, with some potential for bumps quarter to quarter. Overall, we believe Zillow offers one of the best margin expansion profiles in the sector.
Valuation
Our target price of $45 is based on a 40x multiple to our 2014 adjusted EPS estimate of $1.32 (up from $1.24) discounted to present value at a rate of 12.1%.

Please feel free to share these market letter with friends, family and co-workers.

The e-book Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio is available from http://www.amazon.com

Mangement website http://www.jackbassteam.com

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