A workover rig. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
TBE : TSX : C$2.05
Twin Butte Energy Ltd. is an intermediate producer focused on heavy oil E&D activity within the Lloydminster fairway of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The company adopted a yield plus modest growth strategy upon closing its acquisition of Emerge Oil & Gas in early 2012.
Twin Butte announced its 2012 year-end reserves and an operational update. Its reserve additions and FD&A costs ($24/boe) were in line with
expectations and prior management guidance. From our perspective, the clear takeaway from the release was the workover and performance
update at Primate, where production is up month-over-month to 2,600 boe/d; this should alleviate market concerns over recent production
performance and in our opinion provide a positive tailwind for the stock.
Our NAV estimate drops modestly based on our roll-forward; therefore, we have trimmed our 12-month target price to C$3.10 (from C$3.15)
and maintain a BUY rating on the stock. Our target is based on a 1.0x multiple to NAV and reflects a 2013E EV/DACF multiple of 7.1 times.
Primate update the key takeaway from the release. Its January 31 update on Primate prompted a massive pullback on the stock; however, the company has announced that production has stabilized at 2,600 bbl/d through February (up from ~2,500 boe/d) given workover efforts,
including installation of five oversized pumps on existing wells (high volume lift). Its operational capabilities are also confirmed by our review
of Frog Lake performance on pages 6 and 7 of our note. Reserve update was in line with expectations. All-in FD&A of $24/boe and a 1.0x recycle ratio were in line. It had 5.3 mmboes of positive extensions (mostly Waseca and Avalon), and it booked 1.6 mm boes at Primate, versus 1.1 mmboes last year with 1.0 mmboes of production.
Twin Butte trades at a 0.7x multiple to CNAV, a 5.2x EV/DACF multiple, and $41,200 per BOEPD based on our 2013 estimates, compared to peer
group averages of 0.7x CNAV, 10.6x EV/DACF, and $73,500/BOEPD
Posted by jackbassteam on March 1, 2013
(GUY : TSX : $4.13)
Shares of Guyana Goldfields jumped after the company announced a revised feasibility study on its 100%-owned
Aurora Gold project.
The estimated initial capital required to achieve commercial production is $205 million and reflects numerous positive changes, in particular, the phased mining and milling approach, reduced footprint of the mine site and facilities, and utilization of an optimized mobile equipment fleet. Based on the key findings of the study, the company will continue to move forward with mine construction and development of the project.
The improved mine plan will produce 3.29 million ounces of gold over an initial 17 year mine life at an operating cash cost of US$527 per ounce (including royalty). Average annual gold production over the life of mine is 194,000 ounces, and averages 231,000 ounces per year over the first ten years. Gold production peaks in 2020 at 349,000 ounces.
Commercial production is expected to commence in Q1 2015. Gold production will be staged, with initial open pit production of 5,000 tonnes per day from the Rory’s Knoll deposit and expanding to 10,000 tonnes per day in early 2018 when underground mining commences. A Bay Street analyst was positive on the study and noted that he believes this is the report that will convince investors that Aurora, re-optimized and re-designed, presents an attractive project with robust economics.
Posted by jackbassteam on January 15, 2013
TriOil Resources (TOL : TSX-V : $3.00)
TriOil was under pressure after reporting a Q3 miss, driven mainly by wet weather.
The company reported Q3/12 cash flow of $0.09/share, below consensus expectations $0.12/share. The miss was primarily due to lower realized prices ($60.49/boe vs. estimates of $64.76/boe). Production was also ~250 boe/d lower than expected due to ~70 boe/d of non-core dispositions and wet weather causing delays at Kaybob. Unseasonably wet weather, particularly in Kaybob, also impacted drilling and new tie-in operations.
In the quarter, the company drilled 11 (7.9 net) wells – 7 (5.6 net) Dunvegan wells at Kaybob and 4 (2.3 net) Cardium wells at Lochend. In all, 7 (3.3 net) wells were brought on production.
According to the company, activity levels have remained high since mid-summer and they still plan to execute their full 2012 capital program
in both of key light oil projects at Lochend and Kaybob. So far this quarter, the company has drilled 3 (1.6 net) wells, 4 (2.7 net) wells have been completed, 6 (3.8 net wells have been placed on production and 2 (1.6 net) wells are currently drilling.
Prior to year-end, 6 (4.4 net) wells are expected to be brought on production. Current production is around 3,000 boe/d (75% oil) based on field estimates with a current estimated 400 boe/d of tested volumes expected to be on stream by year-end.
A Bay Street analyst commented that given Q3/12 results he now expects 2012E average production to come in lower than guidance of 2,300–2,500 boe/d. However, with current production now at ~3,000 boe/d and several wells left to come on production, 2012 exit guidance of 3,400–3,600 boe/d appears to be safe. The analyst reiterated their bullish stance, noting that TriOil has a strong balance sheet, a promising growth outlook and a potential near-term reserve catalyst at Kaybob.
Posted by jackbassteam on November 26, 2012
English: Oil drop icon (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
2012 highlights and operating results for the quarter ended September 30, 2012. Selected financial and operational information is outlined below and should be read in conjunction with Hyperion’s unaudited financial statements and related management discussion and analysis which will be available for review under Hyperion’s SEDAR profile at http://www.sedar.com.
Q3 2012 Highlights
The following represents the highlights of Hyperion’s third quarter 2012 operations:
-- Record average production in Q3 2012 of 1,522 boe/d (64% light oil and
NGLs), a 45% increase compared to the Q3 2011 production average of
1,050 boe per day (54% light oil and NGLs);
-- Record Q3 2012 funds flow of $4.2 million or $0.08/share, a 69% year
over year increase;
-- Enhanced Niton/McLeod undeveloped land position via farm-in providing a
combined total of 35,680 gross (32,508 net) acres of Cardium rights and
future growth potential with an un-booked drilling inventory of 191
gross (172 net) light oil locations;
-- Continued to achieve operating efficiencies, increasing field netbacks
from $30.32 per boe in Q3 2011 to $34.84 per boe in Q3 2012;
-- Reduced operating costs from Q2 2012 to $10.38/boe, a decrease of 12%;
-- In Q3 2012, Hyperion expended total capital, including land acquisitions
and work overs, of $3.6 million;
-- Drilled 1 gross (0.89 net) Cardium light oil well in the Niton/McLeod
area which was completed and tied-in in Q4 2012;
-- Completed and tied-in 1 gross (0.85 net) Cardium light oil well in the
Garrington area that was drilled in late Q2 2012; and-- Equipped and tied in 1 gross (0.5 net) Cardium light oil well in the
Pembina area that was drilled late in Q1 2012.
Niton/McLeod Cardium Light Oil Development Update
During the third quarter, Hyperion drilled 1 gross (0.89 net) Cardium light oil horizontal well at McLeod (“02-02″ well), over 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the Company’s first Cardium horizontal light oil well (“05-14″ well). The 02-02 was completed and placed on production in late October and has achieved a production rate of 209 boe/d (87% oil) in its first 21 days of production (IP21). The current performance of 02-02 is on track to exceed the Company’s risked production profile of IP30 161 boe/d (92% oil) for a Cardium horizontal light oil well at Niton/McLeod
The results of 02-02 are very encouraging and support the continued development of the Company’s inventory of 191 gross (172 net) potential locations at Niton/McLeod.
Hyperion achieved record production in the third quarter as a result of its successful drilling program in the first of half of 2012 in the Garrington and Pembina areas, highlighting the low risk, high quality nature of these assets. Typically, the Company would look to expand its drilling inventory in these areas to continue the track record of growth.
Posted by jackbassteam on November 16, 2012
Paladin Energy (PDN : TSX : $1.38)
Paladin Energy reported year-end financial and operational results.
For the year ending June 30, 2012, the company produced a record 6.895 million pounds of U308, an increase of 21% from the previous year. The company’s Langer Heinrich mine produced 4.417 million pounds and its Kayelekera mine delivered 2.478 million pounds, with the project running at 90% nameplate capacity for the last eight months.
Average cash costs for the year came in at $39 per pound, compared to $35 per pound last year. PDN noted that both mines now, for the first time, are operating without concurrent construction expansion programmes, which will allow a strong focus on operational and cost optimisation for the coming year.
For the upcoming year the company will focus on improving its cash costs. The company has approved a cost reduction in 2011 to target reducing corporate and marketing costs by at least 15%. Tighter controls have led to a reduction of corporate overheads, including travel costs and outsourced work. Labour costs have also reduced as the high capital investment phase that the company was in has now largely been completed. The company also noted that in Labrador, the three-year moratorium on the mining, development and production of uranium ended providing access to the Michelin deposit and validating the company’s decision to acquire the Aurora uranium assets at a discounted price of US$1.90/lb U3O8. The ending of the moratorium has cleared the way for the company to re-commence work on the project with substantial long-term resource increases are expected.
Posted by jackbassteam on August 31, 2012
English: This graph shows the development of oil prices (Brent) over the past 10 years in Dollars and in Euros. The difference is caused by the weakening of the dollar relative to the euro. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Novus Energy ( NVS.v Vancouver ) $ .69
Typical Junior Oil Story – Great Potential / Short Term Pain
( Hugh Ross President )
DP: When we go back to the good days of April, we see a report by TD Securities on Novus giving you an asset value of as much as $2.26 to $3.75 a share. With the difference in oil and gas prices, on the Viking play – which is your bread and butter, have the economics changed dramatically?
HR: The Viking play that we are in, is probably one of the top three most economic plays in Canada. We have a very large undeveloped land base in a large scale light oil resource play. We have grown this play organically with highly attractive economics. You saw last year we grew our production by 77% and grew our proved plus probable reserves by 58%. We also have discovered petroleum initially in place of over 644 million barrels on company controlled
lands with industry leading operating netbacks of $63/boe in our Viking oil play.
We continue to have industry leading on stream costs of just over $900,000.00 per well. As we have witnessed in the last two months oil prices
have fallen by approximately 10% to 15%, this will obviously impact our netbacks, however, we will still be top quartile compared to all of our peers. We have a recycle ratio in the Viking over 3 times and we are adding production at costs under $20,000.00 per barrel.
DP: Many people considering your Viking operation almost a manufacturing business in that there doesn’t seem to
be too many surprises. Any changes in what you expect production numbers to be for this year and exit rate?
HR: It was a little bit of a wet spring David in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan got a huge abundance of rain in May
and June, so we were slightly hampered getting out into field. I would estimate we are behind a couple of weeks of
drilling time, which may have an effect of slightly reducing our overall average production numbers. We guided this
year for 3300 barrels a day as an average so we might be slightly underneath that guidance. But I don’t think we are
going to see much of a change from our exit rate which we guided to 4500 barrels. I will have better color on that in
the next couple of weeks as we are starting to complete an awful lot of wells as we speak. The Viking play is a
manufacturing play for us as we have drilled nearly 120 wells today in the play. We are one of the most active drillers
in the entire play; we have yet to drill a dry hole David.
DP: Your stock pick that last time we did an interview with you was Pinecrest Energy (PRY) and it’s been clobbered
like everyone else in the oil and gas business. Any thoughts on their economics and what next for them?
HR: No I don’t think my view on them has changed. They have been picked on like all of the other junior oils, but I
think they have a pretty strong fundamental play.
- For the three months ended March 31, 2012 , Novus’ gross revenue increased 109% to $18.54 million from $8.87 million recorded in the comparative period in 2011.
- Funds flow from operations increased 232% to $10.66 million in the first quarter of 2012, versus $3.21 million for the comparative three month period of 2011.
- Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2012 , was $2.84 million , versus a loss of $1.33 million in the comparative three month period of 2011.
- Novus’ net capital program for the three months ended March 31, 2012 , increased 51% to $18.13 million from $12.00 million in the comparative period of 2011.
- At March 31, 2012 , the Company had net debt of $39.13 million and currently has credit facilities in place of $65 million .
Posted by jackbassteam on July 25, 2012
Paladin (Photo credit: commorancy)
Paladin Energy Ltd.
PDN : TSX : C$1.25 Buy , Target C$2.10
FY Q4/12 operating results demonstrate meaningful progress;
Paladin Energy released better than expected FY Q4/12 operating results (U308 production of 2.05 million lbs was 11% above our forecast and increased by 15% q/q) and issued higher than expected FY 2013 production guidance (8.0-8.5 million lbs U308 vs. our 7.8 million lbs estimate).
BUY rating and 12-month target of C$2.10 per share.
Our C$2.10 target is based on 1.0x our 10% NPV estimate of C$2.10 per share. Our BUY rating is supported by our view of the company’s near-term growth profile, attractive relative valuation, and gradually improving uranium fundamentals.
While Paladin has struggled with its ramp-up at both operations over the past three years, the company appears to have finally turned the corner, having surpassed our production forecast for the third consecutive quarter. We note that the company achieved a record 96% of nameplate capacity in FY Q4/12.
We forecast FY 2013E – 2015E production of 7.8m lbs, 8.3m lbs, and 8.3m lbs, which remains unchanged. To be conservative, our FY 2013 production forecast remains below the low end of guidance.
Paladin is currently trading at a 47.5% discount to our revised 8% NPV estimate of C$2.38 per share, which compares to our uranium producer coverage universe of a 32.7% discount.
Posted by jackbassteam on July 16, 2012