Twitter Update

Twitter stock slumps 50 percent as Goldman, Deutsche Bank still say `buy’

13 hours ago – Reuters
Twitter stock slumps 50 percent as Goldman, Deutsche Bank still say `buy’By Supantha Mukherjee and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed(Reuters) – Twitter Inc investors who heeded the advice of high-profile banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Deutsche Bank AG to buy the social media company’s shares might be kicking themselves.

Much more accurate calls were made by Wells Fargo, Atlantic Equities , Macquarie Research, and Jack A. Bass ,who advised clients to get out of the high-flying stock about the time it peaked in December.

On Wednesday the stock fell as low as $37.24, 50 percent below its peak of $74.73 the day after Christmas, wiping almost $18 billion off Twitter’s market capitalization.

The downgrades, and the subsequent swoon by the stock, reflect concern about slowing growth in Twitter’s user base and the company’s ability to reverse the trend. Year-on-year growth in the number of Twitter users has fallen for five straight quarters, and the company said on Tuesday that its 255 million monthly users, on average, appeared to check the service less frequently than a year ago.

That in turn has fueled doubts that Twitter could one day attract as many users as Facebook Inc’s 1.2 billion, or match its much larger rival’s power as an advertising vehicle. It’s also raised questions over whether it can sustain growth over the long term. While no one is suggesting Twitter will lose its consumer cachet as happened to companies such as MySpace or Orkut, neither can anyone guarantee that as tastes change newer rivals won’t usurp it.

“Can they become a mainstream company? That’s the open question,” said Ben Schachter, the Macquarie Securities analyst who downgraded Twitter’s stock to “underperform” on December 27 – the day after it peaked.

It’s a far cry from the enthusiasm that greeted the company when it debuted on the New York Stock Exchange on November 7 and its shares soared 73 percent over the offering price. There was no let-up for the next two months, as the stock scaled fresh highs with little or no news to justify the valuation.

That got some analysts worried. Schachter, speaking to Reuters on Thursday, recalls a “runaway momentum.”

Arcan Resources Ltd Trade Alert

Arcan Resources Ltd(ARN:TSXV, CA)

1.09CADIncrease0.14(14.74%)Volume:
Above Average  575,000

Expand/Contract Level 2 Quote

 

Market Maker Shares Bid Price Ask Price Shares Market Maker
3,000 1.090 1.100 8,500
27,000 1.080 1.110 10,500
4,000 1.070 1.120 13,500
1,500 1.060 1.130 1,000
6,500 1.050 1.140 11,500
5,500 1.040 1.160 12,000
22,000 1.030 1.170 10,000
3,000 1.020 1.200 4,000
9,000 1.010 1.240 4,000
1,500 1.000 1.280 2,000

Arcan Resources: It is a Canadian oil and gas company which trades at the Toronto Venture stock exchange (ARN.V) and the U.S. stock exchange (ARNBF). It is a pure light oil producer which operates in the Beaverhill Lake formation of the Swan Hills region in Canada. This is where the grossly undervalued Second Wave Petroleum (SCS.TO) also operates as it was analyzed in Part 1. Arcan holds a large, contiguous land position in the Swan Hills oil play of 110,000 net acres (98% WI) which has excellent infrastructure (roads and pipelines) in place. It has identified more than 400 potential horizontal drilling locations as of today.

Arcan had a big drilling success in the first half of 2012 that boosted its share price. However the drop of the oil price, the natural production declines along with some operational disruptions and problems impacted the share price which dropped much in the second half of 2012. The company produced almost 4,000 boepd (99% oil and liquids) in the third quarter of 2012 and notes that the steep initial production declines from the newly drilled horizontal wells have now moderated. As of the latest report, Arcan estimates NAV per diluted share of $4.37 and 35.7 MMBOE total P+P reserves (96% oil).

Arcan has also initiated a Waterflood program in 2012 in both the DM#2 and Ethel areas. With the majority of the required infrastructure now in place, improved results are becoming apparent at wells closer to injectors. According to the company, the initial results are encouraging and Arcan anticipates that these results will translate to incremental reserve bookings by year end 2012 and in years to come. The effective waterflood techniques increase the production of the well from 50% to 120% according to the average industry data.

In addition, the vice president of engineering, Kevin Gunning, and the vice president of production, Kyle Baumgartner, were buying shares in September and October 2012 according to regulatory filings. Both are strong evidences that the waterflood program works and there are some satisfactory IP rates from those wells.

On top of that, a concerted cost focus in the latter half of 2012 and into 2013 is expected to deliver reductions in operating costs going forward and the new wells being drilled and completed at under $4.5 million per well, will generate very attractive rates of return. All that being said, I believe Arcan is a good buying opportunity currently.

Iron Ore Forecast from David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital

Iron ore, Newcastle
Iron ore, Newcastle (Photo credit: State Records NSW)

BHP Billiton (BHP : NYSE : US$70.74)

Rio Tinto (RIO : NYSE : US$49.98)

Vale (VALE : NYSE : US$18.32)

Labrador Iron Ore Royalty

 Nov . 1

Jeopardy Round

Q:  Who’s made his name by short selling Allied Capital, Lehman Brothers and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters?
A: Who is  David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, spoke at the Great Investor’s Best Ideas investment conference in Dallas this week and revealed a new short idea – IRON ORE. This is according to the Business Insider, who quoted the Twitter feed of portfolio manager, Leo Isaak of Axios Capital Advisors, who was present at the conference.

Einhorn apparently said:

Short iron ore. It’s cheaper for China to import ore from Australia than to get it from their own ground. Ore was less the $20 in ’03; in ’11 it was over $160. Higher ore prices flowed to the bottom lie; forecasts of Chinese industrial growth has been far overestimated. Iron ore is very plentiful and new supply is coming on from Africa and Canada. Ore supply is expected to grow mid-teens over next few years.

Supply exceeds demands but miners are in a middle of massive expansion.  Miners can’t cut projects because they will strand billions in capital. Iron ore is in a bubble and predicts the price couldfall to $100 per ton next year, and then will be below $80 a ton in the next year as China’s slowing economy. but could go, lower by 2014 – $60 a ton. 
 

Click here  for  investment profits and much more detail on the ins and outs of investing in gold

New Year’s Resolution : Improve Portfolio Results

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How many books on investing did you read this year ?

What are you doing differently from last year ?

Don’t remain in denial – face your demons and move up to success .

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Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

 

Bob Farrell: Don't join the herd.

Stock Market Magic = Strategy , Selection , Knowledge

Don’t join the herd.

500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections – All You Need To Succeed

Posted: August 4, 2012 | Author:  | Filed under: AMP Books and Seminars | Tags:  | 1 Comment »

Are Your Investing Results Mediocre ?

You can make the change :

Ask yourself the hard questions – what are my expectations/ results and what must I do to change if the results aren’t what you want.

You don’t have to have a 500 page plan like that outlined in my book – but no plan is a plan for no success ( pardon the lack of grammar ).

How many books on investing did you read this year ?

What are you doing differently from last year ?

Don’t remain in denial – face your demons and move up to success .

All You Need To Succeed –

in 500 pages of Investing Strategy

and Selections Available now at Amazon .com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today’s stock market [Paperback]

Jack A. Bass (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews) | Like 1678

Bob Farrell: Don't join the herd.

Motley Fool Picks Google for THE Cloud Computing Winner

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500 pages of Investing Strategy and Selections – All You Need To Succeed

Posted: August 4, 2012 | Author:  | Filed under: AMP Books and Seminars | Tags: , | Modify: Edit this | Leave a comment »

Are Your Investing Results Mediocre ?

You can make the change :

Ask yourself the hard questions – what are my expectations/ results and what must I do to change if the results aren’t what you want.

You don’t have to have a 500 page plan like that outlined in my book – but no plan is a plan for no success ( pardon the lack of grammar ).

How many books on investing did you read this year ?

What are you doing differently from last year ?

Don’t remain in denial – face your demons and move up to success .

 

All You Need To Succeed –

in 500 pages of Investing Strategy

and Selections

Available now at Amazon .com

Stock Market Magic: Building Your Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio 2012: All you need to succeed in today's stock market

Oracle Buys Into Social Media With Involver Takeover

Image representing Involver as depicted in Cru...

Image representing Oracle Corporation as depic...
Image via CrunchBase

 

July 11

Oracle the world’s largest maker of database software, is buying Involver Inc., the third acquisition in two months aimed at helping customers use social-media tools to market wares and run their businesses (according to Bloomberg)

Closely held Involver makes software tools that let companies interact with customers on Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc.’s social-networking services. Its products also let marketers create customized Facebook pages to represent their brands. Terms of the deal weren’t disclosed.

Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison is using dealmaking to step up rivalry with Microsoft Corp. and Salesforce.com Inc. in the market for social-media software. Oracle said in May that it’s buying Vitrue Inc., which helps companies run marketing campaigns on Facebook and Twitter. It announced plans the following month to buy Collective Intellect Inc., which analyzes customer data culled from websites.

 “Companies are looking to harness the full potential of social media to increase brand loyalty, connect with potential customers and anticipate buyers’ needs,” Redwood City, California-based Oracle said on its website. “The combination of Involver with Oracle is expected to create the most advanced and comprehensive cloud-based social platform across marketing, sales and service touchpoints.”

Salesforce said on June 4 that it would pay US$689-million for Buddy Media Inc., which helps companies create social media campaigns. Weeks later, Microsoft said it agreed to pay US$1.2-billion for Yammer Inc., maker of software that lets employees collaborate in the workplace.

Customers of Involver include Best Buy Co. Inc., Toys “R” Us Inc. and Viacom Inc.’s MTV Networks, according to Involver’s website.

The market for social-media management tools will more than double to US$970-million in 2016, from US$389-million this year, according to Forrester Research Inc. This category includes Facebook page managers such as Buddy Media, as well as so-called “listening platforms,” which let businesses monitor conversations about their brands on social networks.