Sell signals from Eric Sprott

Sell signals from Eric Sprott according to information published by the Canadian Insider, Mr. Sprott has made four separate sales since the end of September. In all, Mr. Sprott sold 375,000 units at prices ranging from US$10-to-US$9.44.

 

Bloomberg Despite those four sales – which resulted in gross proceeds of US$3.6-million — Eric Sprott still has almost US$35-million of skin in the game.

Over the past six weeks, Eric Sprott — one of the country’s best known gold bugs — has been selling units in the Sprott Physical Gold Trust, a fund formed to hold physical gold.

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Here are the details: Sept. 30 (15,000 at US$9.96 per unit); Oct. 2 (40,000 at US$10); Oct. 31 (210,000 at US$9.62) and Nov. 6 (110,000 at US$9.44.) Despite those four sales – which resulted in gross proceeds of US$3.6-million — Mr. Sprott still has almost US$35-million of skin in the game. According to the most recent filing on SEDI, he owns 3.49 million units in the fund.

Related
Barrick Gold co-president joins insider buying spree
The gold mining meltdown is so bad even activist investors won’t touch it
Sprott adds to investment management team in Toronto, New York
In its IPO, the fund raised US$442.5-million. Since then it has been back to the market on six separate occasions and has raised almost US$2-billion. Its most recent offering was in September 2012.

Glen Williams, a spokesperson for Sprott, said in an email message. “We don’t comment on Eric’s personal trading activity but Sprott’s view on gold is unchanged.” Another Sprott source said that Eric has been using the proceeds to invest in gold and silver equities which offer greater leverage.

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Using An Offshore Corporation and Bank Account : The Basics

Originally posted on Tax Haven Guru:

London Tax Haven - where the world's wealth co...

London Tax Haven – where the world’s wealth comes to hide (Photo credit: London Permaculture)

A Brief Summary of Our Services:

We combine strategies to secure you an incorporation ( International Business Corporation or IBC) in a selected low or no tax jurisdiction.Not all jurisdictions meet the needs of all clients.Our clients are from nations around the world but generally seeking tax relief and avoidance of government cupidity.

We recommend a bank(s) – in another jurisdiction- this can be corporate, personal or both.

We can provide wealth management services – 31 % return in 2013 – and this at a 1% fee plus a bonus only payable if we achieve a minimum of 8 % ( as at November 2014).

We can provide asset protection via trusts ( more important to some clients than others).

Royalty and Intellectual Property Licences – we can provide the contracts and jurisdictions to duplicate…

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Canadian Solar BUY

CSIQ : NASDAQ : US$28.08
BUY 
Target: US$46.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Canadian Solar is a vertically-integrated solar module
manufacturer and project developer. Headquartered in
Canada with principal operations in China, Canadian
Solar has grown to be one of the world’s largest and most
competitive solar firms
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

Sustainability — Energy & Power Technologies
REITERATE BUY ON CSIQ FUNDAMENTALS; PT TO $46
Investment recommendation
We reiterate our BUY on CSIQ following a solid print/guide and a
valuation backstop following a large sell-off on the Q3 results. We
believe that the sentiment in the solar group has largely detached from
fundamentals based on fears of cheap energy, and we remain buyers of
the top names in the group, including Canadian Solar.
Investment highlights
Canadian Solar handily beat Q3 expectations and issued guidance
sequentially up from the strong quarter. Headlines may look like the
guide missed consensus expectations, but we believe there was an
outlier who was unreasonably high in the average.
 While gross margin headlines read pretty negatively as well, none of
the items causing the pressure should have come as a surprise. We
do not view Canadian Solar as a margin-expansion story, but rather
as more of a solid top-line grower with strong operating leverage
and cash earnings. This has not changed.
 The company is close to announcing a yieldco, in our opinion, even
though it looks like the market interpreted the company’s lack of
firm details as a punt on the topic.
 Canadian Solar’s overall project pipeline continues to grow despite
monetizing and retaining significant volumes in the quarter. While
the new pipeline carries increased policy risk and in some cases
lower margins compared to the Canadian projects that have been
the company’s mainstay thus far, we still have confidence that the
company is among the best-positioned solar companies approaching
these new markets and can complete this strategy given its solid
track record of execution.

Gold-Mining Industry Mostly ‘Under Water,’ Gold Fields

Gold miners’ costs are mostly higher than current spot prices, increasing the likelihood of writedowns next year, according to Nick Holland, chief executive officer of Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI)

Across the industry, costs are about $1,300 an ounce including debt repayments, Holland said by phone from Johannesburg today, citing analysts’ research. Gold dropped 0.1 percent to $1,182 an ounce, bringing the decline since the beginning of 2013 to 29 percent.

“The industry by and large is under water,” Holland said. “I would expect further writedowns. Production I think will be curtailed but it will take some time to filter through the system.”

Gold producers are struggling to adapt to a lower bullion price after a decade of debt-fueled expansion, acquisitions and cost inflation during the boom years that saw bullion peak at $1,921.17 an ounce in September 2011. The spot price has tumbled in the past 18 months as investors speculate the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates due to an improving U.S. economy, lowering demand for the safe-haven metal.

Gold Fields is able to “ride this through” as it has a break-even price of about $1,050 an ounce, or $1,090 an ounce including debt repayments, Holland said. While the company calculates its reserves at $1,300 an ounce, that number includes a 15 percent profit margin, he said.

“Everything is fine for now, obviously the margin won’t be 15 percent at the current price, it will be less than that,” Holland said. “That said, the business continues to be run the same as before.”

Profit Drop

Gold Fields dropped 4.8 percent at 9:16 a.m. today in Johannesburg after the precious metal fell 1.2 percent yesterday, largely after South African trading hours. The FTSE/JSE Africa Gold Mining Index decreased 5.1 percent to 1,091.8.

Headline earnings for the South African producer with mines from Peru to Australia were $14 million in the three months to Sept. 30, compared with $18 million the previous quarter, it said in a statement today.

The Johannesburg-based company, which spun off three of its cash-generative but old South African mines to create Sibanye Gold Ltd. last year, is seeking to “aggressively” pay down debt over the next three years as it adjusts to the lower gold price, Holland said. The company is also on the lookout for cheap, in-production acquisitions that more troubled miners are offloading.

Gold Fields reduced net debt in the quarter by $137 million to $1.5 billion. All-in sustaining costs for the year are expected to be 3 percent lower than previous forecast at $1,090 an ounce, it said.

Gold production rose 2 percent to 559,000 ounces in the quarter compared with the previous three months, the company said.

Morgan Stanley Slashes Tesla Estimates

Just getting this note from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley.

Tesla Motors Inc.
Cutting 2015 Model X Deliveries
to 5k from 15k

Following 3Q results, updated outlook and Model X
launch delay, we are making significant adjustments
to our 2014 and 2015 earnings forecasts, leaving our
target unchanged at $320. Tesla has some execution
hurdles to surmount, but we’d still be buyers.

Cutting our 2015 Model X delivery forecast to 5,000 units from 15,000
previously. We have adopted our Model X forecasts not only for a 3Q launch (which weexpect to belate 3Q), butalso for a slow ramp once deliveries begin. Our forecasts apply what we believe to be reasonable execution risk on this important model to ensure uncompromising quality of initial units.We recently raised a question about whether a seemingly mundane attribute of thecar, thefalcon doors,could prove to be a technical challenge at scale. See our November 17th report: Tesla Motors: Will Tesla Ditch the Falcon Doors on the Model X?

2015 EPS forecast reduced by 44% to $2.45 vs.consensus at $2.99.

The shortfall vs.consensus for 2015 is driven by our non-GAAP revenue
assumption of $5.6bn (consensus at $6.2bn). We have partially offset the
Model X shortfall with an increasein our Model S delivery forecast to 48,000 from 45,000 previously (management target of around 50,000 units).

We believe the Model X is critical to the Tesla story and execution on
this product is critical. There is a lot about the Model X which may be easier to execute upon vs. the Model S given high levels of commonality and experience with thefactory. However, there are still some unique attributes to the vehicle that could present a near-term challenge. We would look for any hiccups/delays as an opportunity to increase exposure to what we believe is the most important manufacturer in global autos.

Valuation Methodology:
We argue Tesla cannot bevalued on near-term multiple metrics like traditional auto companies given that we expect Tesla to multiply revenues by morethan 10x from 2013 to 2016 by nearly 30x by 2020 and around 60x by 2028.We havethus chosen a 15-year time horizon for our DCF which captures thefull maturation of the Model S, Model X (and top-hat derivatives) and also theramp up of its mass market electric vehicle (the Gen 3). We have applied a 11% WACC with a range of 9% to 13%.Theterminal value,calculated on a midpoint of 10x EV/EBITDA accounts for roughly 50% of thetotal DCF value across the range of methodologies we have applied to arrive at our PT.

DOW to 20,000 ?

Longtime stock bull Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Tuesday that he sees favorable market trends-including the prospect for solid economic growth with low inflation-that could send the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) past the 20,000 level by the end 2015.

“There are a number of goods things, I think, that need to happen, but certainly that would be even conservative for fair market value if we get some of these favorable trends coming together over this next year,” the Wharton School finance professor said on “Squawk Box .”

He cited economic growth of 3 percent to 4 percent, low inflation, cheap gas prices and an improving job market as some of the factors that could help push stocks higher. But he said, “The 3 percent [GDP], that’s the wild card.” He cautioned that many forecasters are calling for growth of 2 percent to 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

During the October selloff, Siegel had started to waver a bit on whether his prediction of Dow 18,000 by year-end would come to pass. But with the market back on track, he told CNBC earlier this month that he’s again confident that blue chips would reach that level after all.

In a lackluster session Monday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) eked out its 42nd new high of 2014. The index has moved less than one-tenth of a percent in each of the last five sessions, and the Dow has only had one triple-digit point move this month after having 16 in October. The S&P was up almost 10.5 percent for the year as of Monday’s close. The Dow was up about 6.5 percent in 2014.

“Two to three years ago, I thought we were really undervalued given interest rates and earnings,” Siegel told “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. “I thought the bullish calls were really easy to make. I still think we are 10 percent undervalued given the interest rate structure.” Siegel said he’d view the Dow between 19,000 and 19,500 as fair value.

While Siegel kept preaching his bullish message, other market watchers including Carl Icahn are less optimistic. At a Reuters investment summit Monday, the billionaire warned of a “major correction” in the next few years.

IAMGOLD Corporation

CAVEAT: long time readers are aware that I am the author of The Gold Investors Handbook and have been a seller of all gold and gold stocks from $ 1800 until today.
This shift out of gold and out of shipping has allowed Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts to prosper – our position remains very cautious to both sectors preferring to maintain watch lists rather than positions.

IMG : TSX : C$2.17
IAG : NYSE
HOLD 
Target: C$3.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
IAMGOLD is an intermediate gold company which
produced 764,000 oz in 2013 at a total cash cost of
$796/oz. Its key producing mines include Rosebel (95%)
in Suriname and the Essakane mine in Burkina Faso. Key
development projects include the Westwood (100%)
project in Quebec. Its key non-gold asset is the 100%-
owned Niobec mine in Quebec, which produces niobium.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals

TAKE A KNEE OR HAIL MARY?

Investment recommendation
At lower gold prices the operating outlook for IAMGOLD is not
favourable and based on the third quarter results the situation is even
more concerning. Grade control issues at Rosebel are expected to persist
into YE and management’s ability to fully fix the problem is unknown.
Near $1,100/oz we believe Rosebel may generate negative FCF. At
Westwood, IMG continues to evaluate different production profiles to
conserve development capital that could result in a slower ramp-up. At
Essakane, the Q3 results provided an insight into longer-term operating
costs for the hard rock expansion and the cost structure looks to be 5%
higher than anticipated. At all three core operations, there appears to be
limited opportunity to materially improve costs structures to defend
against a declining gold price environment.
IAMGOLD faces a fork in the road – utilize the Niobec windfall to pay
down debt and survive in a low gold price environment, or take a long
shot by purchasing a transformative asset (or possibly a combination of
both). In a low gold price environment, neither option will likely be
applauded by the market.
Investment highlights
 Q3/14 adj. EPS of $0.00 vs. CG at $0.01 and consensus of $0.03.
IMG generated positive ($55m) operating FCF for the first time in
two years. We forecast $16m in Q4/14 or negative $26.4m in FCF
(incl. G&A, expl., int. and ex Niobec). In this note we deconstruct
quarterly cash flows by assets.
Valuation
We have revised our target price to C$3.00 from C$4.25. Our target is
predicated on a 0.5x (from 0.6x) multiple to our forward curve derived
operating NAV of C$5.21/sh plus net cash and other assets of C$0.44/sh.
Our low target multiple reflects higher operating, financial, political
(Burkina Faso instability) and acquisition risk.

Silver Wheaton Corporation BUY Target Price $29

Metals and Mining — Precious Metals and Minerals
SLW : TSX : C$21.51
SLW : NYSE
BUY 
Target: C$29.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Silver Wheaton is uniquely positioned as the purest silver
producer. The company’s asset base consists of silver purchase
agreements with the San Dimas and Penasquito mines in Mexico,
Pascua-Lama project in Chile/Argentina, Zinkgruvan mine in
Sweden, Yauliyacu mine in Peru, Stratoni mine in Greece. Most
recent streaming deals with Hudbay minerals (silver and gold
streams at 777 and Constancia) and Vale (gold streams at
Salobo and Sudbury mines).
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

STRONG MOMENTUM INTO Q4
Investment recommendation
Silver Wheaton remains the preferred vehicle for exposure to silver
given the strong growth profile, margins, liquidity and diversification.
Further accretive streaming transactions are possible over the next 12
months, although new equity should be expected for larger transactions.
SLW is currently trading at 1.20x its forward-curve-derived NAV,
modestly above the silver producer group, but below SLW’s royalty
peers. Our NAV continues to assume a 25% permitting/development risk
discount for Pascua and Rosemont. We maintain our BUY rating.
Investment highlights
 SLW reported Q3/14 adjusted EPS of $0.20, in line with our
estimate and consensus. While attributable AgEq production was
below expectations (8.4 vs. 9.2Moz), a 1.3Moz inventory drawdown
resulted in sales beating our estimate (8.7 vs. 8.4Mozs).
 SLW wrote-down Mineral Park $37.1m following Mercator Minerals
Chapter 11 filing, and Campo Morado $31.1m given questionable
viability of the satellite resource base (metallurgy and low prices).
We have removed Mineral Park from our valuation and reduced our
Campo Morado’s valuation by 70%. Overall, these two small streams
are non-core and have limited impact on SLW’s overall profile.
SLW’s key streams remain well insulated to lower prices.
 SLW made a final $135m payment to Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T,
BUY, covered by Gary Lampard) relating to the Constancia gold
stream. While the payment was expected, SLW paid through the
issuance of 6.1m shares (dilution of 1.9%) rather than cash. The
preference for equity is understandable with the net debt to EBITDA
at 1.66x, which may not be high relative to SLW’s producing peers,
and is easily manageable, but remains high for a royalty company.
Both Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold have net cash positions.
Valuation
We have revised our target price to $29.00 from $30.00. Our target
remains predicated on a 1.55x multiple to our fwd. curve derived
5%/operating NAVPS estimate of C$20.02 (previously C$20.76) less net
debt and other corporate adjustments.

Actavis BUY Target Price $ 300

ACT : NYSE : US$250.38
BUY 
Target: US$300.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Actavis is an integrated global pharmaceutical company
that develops and markets both brand and generic drugs.
With the acquisition of Forest, it has transformed itself
into a formidable brand/generic hybrid pharmaceutical
company with a truly global scope.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

Life Sciences — Specialty Pharmaceuticals
Q3 REVIEW: NO ONE CARES ABOUT ANYTHING BUT M&A ?
Investment recommendation
Actavis announced a great Q3 and raised guidance. Revenue beat our
numbers by $34M, and EPS beat us by $0.15 and consensus by $0.08.
We like the stock on its own merits now with the durability provided by
the Forest products but are becoming increasingly concerned that it’s
getting caught up in the market euphoria that might create a situation
where it would overpay for Allergan.
Investment highlights
Synergies already materializing. Breaking the results into Actavis and
Forest components – revenue from Forest products were +14.7% Y/Y
and the Actavis base business was +33.2% Y/Y. As the integration
accelerates and strong performance continues, we don’t see why Actavis
would continue to have a Spec Pharma cellar multiple, and hence are
looking for both an expansion and continued upward earnings revisions.
Salix or Allergan or something else? Although no names were obviously
disclosed, most questions were aimed at deciphering the next
acquisition target: 1) strategic rationale is more important than EPS
(which we find fascinating given there’s virtually zero strategic fit
between Actavis and Allergan); 2) prefer friendly deals as hostiles result
in loss of human capital; and 3) maintain 3.5x leverage.
Valuation/risks
We use a standard DCF for our raised $300 target, based on a 10%
discount rate and terminal growth of 2.6%. Risks include: failure to
integrate Forest; undue pricing in US generics; and/or failure to obtain
FDA approvals for the seven key Forest products.

BlackBerry Jumps on Samsung Lifeline for Mobile-Business

BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY) shares advanced after the struggling smartphone maker announced a management-services partnership with rival Samsung Electronics Co., the first time the companies have teamed up for a major product.

The stock rose as much as 6.9 percent to $12.05, the highest intraday price since August 2013, after the plan was announced. Samsung’s Knox system, which offers a suite of secure work applications, will run on BlackBerry’s new server, known as BES12, the companies said in a statement today.

BlackBerry is holding an event today in San Francisco to unveil the server, which helps businesses manage devices and communicate securely. The partnership, which competes against an alliance of International Business Machines Corp. and Apple Inc., allies BlackBerry with one of its biggest rivals in the growing mobile device management market. Apple and IBM announced an agreement in July to work together on business services, sending BlackBerry’s stock down 12 percent in one day.

“People probably didn’t expect to see these two companies on the same stage, at least not willingly,” John Sims, head of BlackBerry’s enterprise services business, said at the event. “We need to be able to provide a breadth of choices and do that with companies of the highest level.”

Photographer: Hannah Yoon/Bloomberg

BlackBerry Ltd. Chief Executive Officer John Chen.

Since taking over the Waterloo, Ontario-based company a year ago, Chief Executive Officer John Chen has focused BlackBerry on business users and outsourced some device manufacturing. Partnerships seem to be the next step in his plan to return the company to profitability by 2016.

Earlier this week Chen said he had met with the heads of Chinese smartphone makers Xiaomi Corp. and Lenovo Group Ltd. and was interested in partnerships to expand in China.

Investors have supported Chen’s turnaround plan, pushing the stock up 51 percent this year through yesterday and putting it on track to beat the Nasdaq Composite Index for the first time since 2009. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Planincreased its holding in the company to 1.6 percent as of Sept. 30, according to a Nov. 7 regulatory filing.

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