Macau Is Hot For These Entertainment Stocks

Official Logo of Galaxy Macau

Official Logo of Galaxy Macau (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential

Gambling is akin to trading, but with much more risk of failure. Everyone knows Las Vegas as the gambling capital of the United States, but Macau is hot and growing. Macau is designated a special administrative region of China, which means the area has the backing of the Chinese government for the purpose of casino development.

Attracted by abundant wealth and the appetite for risk and money in China and Asia, there has been a rapid move by the major casinos to establish and expand their presence on the island of Macau, China, which is the world’s largest gambling market, known in the gambling world as the “Monte Carlo of the Orient.”

I have visited this former Portuguese colony, which is located some 38 miles from Hong Kong, and there is an obvious push to build more high-end casinos, especially those integrated with hotel, retail, and casino operations. The market is primarily the China and Asia tourist market.

Much of the newer major development is along the Cotai strip in Macau, which will add to the original gambling establishments in the city.

The Cotai strip area is bustling with people armed with money to spend, and if the expansion plans are on target, it will inevitably make Vegas seem sedate in comparison.

In March, gross revenues in the Macau casino sector came in around $3.9 billion, up 25.4% year-over-year. (Source: Garlitos, K., “SLM Holdings Continue to Hold Top Revenue Spot in Macau,” CalvinAyre.com, April 3, 2013, last accessed May 9, 2013.)

The prospects for Macau, China are enormous; I’m betting on that, and so are some of the world’s largest casino operators.

Two of the major players expanding their presence in Macau are Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE/LVS) and China-based Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited (OTC/GXYEY).

In the first quarter, Las Vegas Sands attributed its strong growth in part to its expansion in Macau, where the company’s four Cotai strip properties attracted a record 14 million visitors. The company is a major player on the Cotai strip, which is attracting even more major players. The company’s subsidiary Sands China Ltd. reported a 39.3% year-over-year jump in net revenues to $2.0 billion in the first quarter, while earnings surged 63.3% year-over-year.

Speculating On Gambling    

But the company that I feel has excellent prospects is Galaxy Entertainment because of the fact that it’s an Asian-based company. The company is on an aggressive expansion path. Currently, it has two core properties—Galaxy Macau and StarWorld Hotel and Casino.

Galaxy Entertainment’s expansion plans are aggressive. The current development includes doubling the size of Galaxy Macau by the middle of 2015, and there are plans to launch Phase 3 and 4 at Galaxy Macau, to be completed between 2016 and 2018.

Two smaller casino players in the Macau China casino scene are Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ/WYNN) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE/MGM).

 

NIKE How Five Hundred Bucks and a Handshake Created a Colossal Stock Market Winner

Footballshoes of the mark Nike.

Footballshoes of the mark Nike. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential

One company that always reports early is NIKE, Inc. (NYSE/NKE).

The company has doubled on the stock market since 2010, and it has more than tripled since 2006.

This kind of stock market performance really is amazing. In just three years, a $12.5-billion company has become a $25.0-billion company.From Oregon, Bill Bowerman and Phil Night created Blue Ribbon Sports with $500.00 each and a handshake. In January of 1964, Bowerman and Night ordered 300 pairs of Tiger brand shoes from Onitsuka Inc. of Kobe, Japan for distribution in the U.S. market. Night began selling the shoes out of his Plymouth “Reliant,” and Bowerman began tearing them apart.

Bowerman took an idea from his wife’s waffle iron and created a new running shoe.

Jeff Johnson (a friend and the company’s first employee) came up with the NIKE name in 1971. Shoes were successfully tested and Carolyn Davidson, a graphic design student at PortlandStateUniversity, created the “swoosh” logo. The company’s first shoes were sold at the U.S. Track & Field Trials held in Eugene, Oregon. The rest, as they say, is history.

As a stock market investment, NIKE has mostly been excellent. The position was flat between 1997 and 2004. The company signed Eldrick “Tiger” Woods in 1996. In its latest quarter (ended February 28), the company’s comparable sales grew nine percent to $6.2 billion, up solidly from $5.7 billion. Comparable earnings grew from $560 million to $866 million, for a gain of 55%, while earnings from continuing operations were $662 million, up 16% from $569 million.

Sales growth was strongest in North America (18%), followed by Central and Eastern Europe (16%), then Western Europe (8%). Western Europe’s growth is uncharacteristic compared to other earnings reports from many global brands. On February 1, 2013, NIKE sold its Cole Haan brand to Apax Partners for $570 million. The deal resulted in a gain on sale of $231 million. But on November 30, 2012, NIKE sold Umbro to Iconix Brand Group for $225 million. This resulted in a loss of $107 million, net of tax.

I consider NIKE to be fully valued on the stock market currently. With a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 25, the company’s earnings growth combined with its dividend suggests it’s a little pricey.

NIKE is a shining example of how a business can still be very successful during tough times. Arguably, the position held up extremely well on the stock market through the financial crisis and the recession.

Wall Street estimates for the company have been going up for the next quarter, all of 2013, and all of 2014.

Realistically, I wouldn’t say the stock is a buy right now, simply because the stock market is at an all-time record high. It’s very difficult to consider new positions with the stock market sitting so high. I would say, however, that this company would be worthy of consideration for long-term investors if the stock were to experience a meaningful retrenchment. While a track record of success certainly cannot predict the future, NIKE’s demonstrated record of innovation and wealth creation still makes it a winner.

 

Imperial Metals Corp

English: 100 million dollar note after operati...

English: 100 million dollar note after operation Sunrise. Issued 2nd May 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

III : TSX : C$10.91
BUY 
Target: C$16.50

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Imperial Metals is a Canadian-based company with interests in two mature producing copper mines in British Columbia (Mount Polley [100%]; Huckleberry [50%]). More importantly, the future and value driver of the company resides in its 100% interest in the very large but undeveloped Red Chris copper-gold project in northwest BC, which is permitted and scheduled to enter production via an open-pit in late-2014.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted
Q1/13 FINANCIALS IN LINE; STILL WAITING FOR RED CHRIS FINANCING
Event
Imperial Metals reported Q1/13 EPS of C$0.14, in line with both our forecast and consensus. We calculate adjusted (to include Huckleberry)
EBITDA of C$23 million vs. our forecast of C$25 million. The end-Q1 cash balance was just C$97,000 (excluding III’s C$12 million share of
the Huckleberry JV’s cash balance).
Impact
Our 2013-15E adjusted EBITDA forecasts (accounting for Huckleberry as an equity investment) are C$100 million, C$116 million, and C$330
million.
Action and valuation
We are maintaining our BUY recommendation, but decreasing our 12- month target price from C$17.00 to C$16.50, based on the average of: i)
10x our 2014E EV/EBITDA, which would imply a share price of C$10.55; and ii) our NPV10 estimate of C$22.13. Our NPV10 estimate of C$22.13 includes C$12.15 for Red Chris in-situ value.
Next potential catalyst and investment risks
Red Chris financing remains a key valuation risk, and in our view a potential catalyst for share price appreciation. Our current valuation assumptions are C$100 million of equity priced at C$10 per share, and new debt financing of $400 million at an interest rate of 10%. On this basis, we are forecasting an end-2014 cash balance of C$41 million

Dick’s Sporting Goods

English: Tournament Logo

English: Tournament Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

DKS : NYSE : US$52.98
BUY 
Target: US$59.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:D

Dick’s Sporting Goods operates as a sporting goods retailer in the United States. It provides apparel, athletic shoes and accessories for sports. It also engages in ecommerce and catalog operations. Dick’s Sporting Goods was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Pennsylvania.

Investment recommendation


When DKS reports Q1 results on Tuesday, May 21, we are anticipating an in-line quarter (48c on 0% comp), which in our opinion would be a
welcomed result given the challenges it faced during Q1. To no surprise, unfavorable weather likely muted any potential upside, particularly in
golf and team sports/baseball. That said, we believe there were pockets of strength (e.g., guns/ammo, footwear, and apparel) that mitigated the
weaker categories. Looking to the balance of the year, we believe the opportunity to drive outsized comps improves as weather normalizes
and compares ease, while the fundamental long-term growth thesis stays intact. We reiterate our BUY.
Investment highlights
 We are looking for GG comps to be down mid-teens with DKS store comps flat. Golf and baseball/team sports faced tough comparisons from last year’s perfect Q1 weather and the bat replacement cycle. That said, we believe guns/ammo experienced a significant increase that we estimate added 1% to comp. Also, the UA/NKE/adidas shopin- shops should continue to drive strong sales gains.
 According to our industry checks, the competitive environment has remained rational as promotional activity has stayed in check. As such, we do not see risk to merchandise margins and commensurately we expect inventory levels to be clean.
Valuation
Our $59 PT is an average of 18x 2014E EPS estimate/9x EBITDA

Pandora Media

Image representing Pandora Media as depicted i...

Image via CrunchBase

P : NYSE : US$16.57
BUY 
Target: US$18.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Pandora radio is the market leader in personalized Internet-based radio listening in the US. The company uses its proprietary algorithms as part of the Music Genome Project to generate playlists for users that are personalized and cater to the tastes of individual users.

Summary
While competitive developments continue, we believe fundamentals at Pandora remain strong heading into Q1 earnings next week. Our proprietary analysis points to a growing audio ad load (driven by robust adoption of the STRATA integration) and higher quality of advertisers
(big national brands). In addition, the temporary 40-hour listener cap on mobile appears poised to dampen content costs. As such, several
positives are coming to a head at once. Given the timing, Q1 impact is hard to gauge but likely positive, while impact to Q2 and beyond should
be more positive. Our best estimate is that guidance should be somewhat bullish without being irresponsibly aggressive.
Key points
 Our proprietary research (admittedly a small sample) indicates an audio ad load that has gone from 1.40 minutes per hour a month ago to 1.75 minutes currently. We believe this is being driven by sales force ramp, Triton measurement, and STRATA integration. This should drive higher RPMs.
 We also believe subscription revenue and content costs could both show improvement in Q1 from the 40-hour mobile cap, with more impact in Q2 and beyond.
 We believe Google’s newly announced $10/month “All Access” subscription service should have only a moderate competitive impact on Pandora’s listener base, which clearly likes free stuff.
Valuation
Our $18 target is unchanged and is based on 32x our F2017 EPS estimate of $0.90, discounted to present at 12.1%.

Trading Alert Shipping Sector DSX, FRO, DYS

Panamax container ship

Panamax container ship (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Waiting for the turn I have added to DSX ( yesterday ) and FRO today

Symbol Last Chg
CPLP 9.04 -0.01
DRYS 2.14 +0.269
DSX 10.75 +0.6301
FRO 2.23 +0.2001
STNG 9.33 +0.02
NMA 14.53 +0.0272
DHT 4.62 -0.02
TNK 2.65 +0.051
NAT 8.76 -0.15
TNP 3.81 +0.12

Diana Shipping Inc. Announces Time Charter Contract for m/v Baltimore With RWE

10 May 2013 – ACQUIREMEDIA

ATHENS, Greece, May 10, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX), a global shipping company specializing in the ownership and operation of dry bulk vessels, today announced that it has entered into a time charter contract with RWE Supply & Trading GmbH, Essen, Germany, through a separate wholly-owned subsidiary, for one of its Capesize dry bulk carriers, the m/v “Tamou” (to be renamed “Baltimore”).

As previously announced on April 9, 2013, the above mentioned vessel is a 2005 built Capesize dry bulk carrier of 177,243 dwt that the Company entered into an agreement to purchase in April 2013. The vessel is expected to be delivered to the Company by the sellers at the end of May 2013.

Due to scheduled maintenance, the vessel is expected to be delivered to the charterers in the middle of June 2013 at a rate of US$9,000 per day, minus a 5% commission paid to third parties, for a period commencing upon delivery of the vessel to the charterers until June 30, 2013.

Commencing on July 1, 2013 and for a period of minimum thirty-six (36) months to maximum forty-two (42) months, the gross charter rate will be US$15,000 per day minus a 5% commission paid to third parties.

This employment is anticipated to generate approximately US$16.3 million of gross revenue for the minimum scheduled period of the charter.

Including the aforementioned vessel Diana Shipping Inc.’s fleet currently consists of 33 dry bulk carriers (2 Newcastlemax, 9 Capesize, 3 Post-Panamax, 2 Kamsarmax and 17 Panamax) as well as 2 new-building Ice Class Panamax vessels expected to be delivered to the Company during the fourth quarter of 2013. As of today, the combined carrying capacity of our current fleet, excluding the three vessels not yet delivered, is approximately 3.5 million dwt with a weighted average age of 6.2 years. A table describing the current Diana Shipping Inc. fleet can be found on the Company’s website,www.dianashippinginc.com.

Edwards Lifesciences

EW : NYSE : US$71.57
BUY 
Target: US$85.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Edwards Lifesciences manufactures minimally invasive medical devices for the cardiovascular market. Its primary product line is centered on heart valve therapy and includes tissue valves, mechanical valves, and repair products. It has a large offering for critical care, with key products for hemodynamic and pressure monitoring.

Investment recommendation


EW announced several important corporate developments yesterday: 1) the retirement of CFO Tom Abate, 2) the authorization of a $750M share repurchase program, and 3) the purchase of $5M of EW shares by CEO Mike Mussallem. We were surprised by the retirement of Mr. Abate but note his long and distinguished career with EW, and submit investors may welcome a fresh perspective on TAVI guidance. Mr. Abate will remain at the company until a CFO is in place to ensure a smooth transition for his successor.
We remain positive on EW’s long-term EPS growth prospects given the company’s first-mover advantage in what we continue to believe is a very large addressable US TAVI market, backed up by what we consider to be a strong product pipeline. Thus, we maintain our BUY rating and $85 price target.
Investment highlights
 The new share repurchase program brings the total amount available to buy back shares to ~$890M, including ~$140M remaining from its previous program.
 We estimate that the share buyback could contribute ~$0.08 to our 2013 EPS estimate and ~$0.34 to EPS in 2014E.
 We remain bullish about EW’s TAVI market opportunity and the ability of TAVI therapy to penetrate at least 30-40% of our targeted TAVI patient population of 100k patients per annum.

Sunshine Heart

English: The illustration shows the major sign...

English: The illustration shows the major signs and symptoms of heart failure. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

SSH : NASDAQ : US$5.45
BUY 
Target: US$12.50

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Sunshine Heart develops, manufactures and markets C-Pulse, a minimally invasive assist device to treat Class III heart failure. C-Pulse, which received C.E. Mark in July 2012, is based on the proven concept of intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) technology. Unlike IABPs, C-Pulse does not come in contact with circulating blood, which should negate thrombus formation and stroke risk. The company is listed on the Australian exchange and NASDAQ.

SOLID PROGRESS IN U.S. AND EUROPE; REITERATE BUY RATING
Investment recommendation
Sunshine Heart announced Q1 financial results that were in line with our expectations. What’s more, the company reported meaningful progress on its efforts to achieve U.S. regulatory approval for the C-Pulse system. During Q1, the company received IRB approval of the first U.S. trial site and activation of a second site (Minneapolis VA Medical Center), and appointed a surgical principal investigator (PI) for its COUNTER HF pivotal trial. In Europe, SSH announced that the German Heart Institute-Berlin has been activated as the first center for its OPTIONS HF post-market trial. The company is in the process of getting ethics panel approval at seven additional centers across Germany, Italy and the UK, and expects full activation of these sites by Sept. 1. We expect several patients to be enrolled in its European post-market trial through the balance of 2013 and 2014.
We remain positive on the long-term prospects for SSH’s differentiated technology in the treatment of Class III heart failure, thus reiterate our BUY rating and $12.50 price target.
Investment highlights
 SSH reported a Q1 net loss of $4.4M, or ($0.47) per share, a shade below our expectation of a net loss of $4.5M, or ($0.48) per share.
 SSH is discussing with physicians in the feasibility trial weaning additional patients given the positive effects on these sick patients during the feasibility trial.
 Complete feasibility study data expected to be published in major medical journal later this year.

Twin Butte Energy Ltd.

Official seal of Lloydminster

Official seal of Lloydminster (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

TBE : TSX : C$2.12
BUY 
Target: C$3.20

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Twin Butte Energy Ltd. is an intermediate producer focused on heavy oil development along the Lloydminster fairway of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The company adopted a yield plus modest growth strategy upon closing its acquisition of Emerge Oil & Gas in early 2012.

Investment recommendation
Twin Butte released first quarter results largely in line with its guidance and CG/consensus estimates. Despite headwinds from wide heavy oil differentials, strong condensate prices that factor in its blending costs, adverse weather, and isolated production challenges at Primate, Twin Butte maintained a payout ratio below 100% with average production down only 1.6% QoQ. We have maintained our BUY rating on the stock and target price of C$3.20, based on a 1.0x multiple to NAV and reflecting a 2013 EV/DACF multiple of 6.8 times.
Investment highlights
Q1 in line, no surprises. Production averaged 17,254 boe/d, in line with our estimate of 17,326 boe/d and consensus of 17,190 boe/d. CFPS of $0.13 was also in line with our $0.13 and consensus of $0.12.
Prudently scaled back CAPEX in January but narrowing differentials could enable re-acceleration in H2/13. Capital spending was previously scaled to $85 million (from $110 million) given isolated issues at Primate and widening heavy oil differentials. Given an improved differential outlook, we see potential for a H2/13 CAPEX increase of $5 to $10 million.
Payout ratio remains best in class; current dividend is solid. Twin Butte maintains one of the lowest total payout ratios amongst the high yield Intermediate E&P group with a total payout ratio pre/post DRIP of 100/95% on our 2013 estimates.
Valuation
Twin Butte trades at a 0.7x multiple to CNAV, a 5.2x EV/DACF multiple and $41,800 per BOEPD based on our 2013 estimates, compared to peer group averages of 0.7x CNAV, 7.8x EV/DACF and $64,400/BOEPD.

Stratasys More Than 3D Guns

English: Miniature turbine 3D print from Rapid...

English: Miniature turbine 3D print from Rapid 2006 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

( please also review our article on 3D Printing in yesterday’s blog)

SSYS : NASDAQ : US$83.39
BUY 
Target: US$95.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Stratasys Ltd. is a global provider of 3D printing solutions,including a wide range of 3D printers, consumable print materials and services. Stratsys Ltd. was formed with the merger of Stratsys and Objet in a stock-for-stock merger completed in December 2012. The combined company has an impressive portfolio of 3D printing and direct digital manufacturing solutions.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

Investment recommendation


We reiterate a BUY rating and increase our price target to $95 driven by gross margin upside and solid execution of cross selling implementation.
With services gross margins poised to rebound and management’s expectation to sustain a high corporate gross margin level, we believe 2013 EPS guidance is conservative when applying the midpoint of guidance for revenue. We therefore raise our EPS for 2013E to the high end of the range at $1.95, increase 2014E EPS to $2.63 off of the higher base, maintaining that EPS upside potential remains versus our revised numbers given management is executing on its cross-selling effort ahead of plan.
Investment highlights
 SSYS reported Q1/13A (Mar) earnings this morning. Revenues and EPS were $98.2 million and $0.43, compared to consensus estimates of $98.3 million and $0.38 and our estimate of $98 million and $0.37. Revenue increased 18% Y/Y (2% Q/Q) driven by 31% Y/Y growth in services (RedEye +42% Y/Y, Customer Services 25% Y/Y) and 16% Y/Y growth in products (Consumables +18% Y/Y, Printers +15% Y/Y)
 Management reiterated their F2013 targets, with revenue expectation of $430 million to $445 million (20% to 24 % Y/Y growth) and non-GAAP EPS expectation of $1.80 to $1.95.

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