Rackspace Hosting HOLD

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RAX : NYSE : US$39.30
HOLD 
Target: US$37.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
A provider of managed hosting and cloud computing services, Rackspace provides businesses with the infrastructure to house their data (web sites and applications), and with the customer support for their IT services need. Primarily focused on small businesses, Rackspace Hosting is known for its unique customer service experience known as “Fanatical Support”. The company is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

DARK CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE HORIZON; REDUCING PT TO $37
Investment recommendation
Despite recent estimate cuts, we believe additional downside risks remain given the increasing level of competition and the operating distraction we believe is resulting from the OpenStack transition. We believe aggressive competitive pricing pressures and continued momentum from competitors’ cloud eco-systems will likely make the OpenStack transition increasingly difficult. We are lowering our target multiple from 10x to 9x and our price target from $40 to $37accordingly.
Investment highlights
 Dedicated business likely further slows – We believe the increasing adoption of IT outsourcing to the public cloud will likely shift more
incremental demand away from traditional dedicated hosting services. Premium pricing, product cycle transition and continued sales force distraction due to OpenStack will likely make it difficult for Rackspace to regain momentum in its core dedicated business.
 Uphill battle for OpenStack – As Amazon AWS, Microsoft AzureVMWare and Google further penetrate respective cloud ecosystems, we believe it will be increasingly challenging for OpenStack to gain traction in the increasingly competitive market. The aggressive pricing strategy by AWS and matched by others will likely continue to create significant headwinds for companies like Rackspace.
 Still too early for bottom fishing – Despite the over 50% drop in share price from its recent peak, we believe it is still too early for bottom fishing given the continued downside risk and with its shares still valued at 9.7x 2014E EBITDA.

Pandora Media

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P : NYSE : US$16.57
BUY 
Target: US$18.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Pandora radio is the market leader in personalized Internet-based radio listening in the US. The company uses its proprietary algorithms as part of the Music Genome Project to generate playlists for users that are personalized and cater to the tastes of individual users.

Summary
While competitive developments continue, we believe fundamentals at Pandora remain strong heading into Q1 earnings next week. Our proprietary analysis points to a growing audio ad load (driven by robust adoption of the STRATA integration) and higher quality of advertisers
(big national brands). In addition, the temporary 40-hour listener cap on mobile appears poised to dampen content costs. As such, several
positives are coming to a head at once. Given the timing, Q1 impact is hard to gauge but likely positive, while impact to Q2 and beyond should
be more positive. Our best estimate is that guidance should be somewhat bullish without being irresponsibly aggressive.
Key points
 Our proprietary research (admittedly a small sample) indicates an audio ad load that has gone from 1.40 minutes per hour a month ago to 1.75 minutes currently. We believe this is being driven by sales force ramp, Triton measurement, and STRATA integration. This should drive higher RPMs.
 We also believe subscription revenue and content costs could both show improvement in Q1 from the 40-hour mobile cap, with more impact in Q2 and beyond.
 We believe Google’s newly announced $10/month “All Access” subscription service should have only a moderate competitive impact on Pandora’s listener base, which clearly likes free stuff.
Valuation
Our $18 target is unchanged and is based on 32x our F2017 EPS estimate of $0.90, discounted to present at 12.1%.

Blame It On Bill Gates ! PC Sales Slide

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Microsoft (MSFT : NASDAQ : US$28.79)
Dell (DELL : NASDAQ : US$14.10)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ : NYSE : US$20.90)
According to IDC, personal computer sales fell 14% this quarter, on a year-over-year-basis, the largest decline
since IDC started tracking sales in 1994.

The research firm had forecast a 7.7% drop in the quarter. “At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market,” said Bob O’Donnell, IDC Program Vice President, Clients and Displays in IDC’s press release.

He added, ”While some consumers appreciate the new form factors and touch capabilities of Windows 8, the radical changes to the UI, removal of the familiar Start button, and the costs associated with touch have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices. Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market. Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that Microsoft is developing a smaller, 7-inch version of its Surface tablet, according to sources close to the matter.

One person familiar with Microsoft’s product plans said the 7-inch tablets weren’t part of the company’s strategy last year, but Microsoft executives realized they needed a response to the rapidly growing popularity of smaller tablets like Google’s (GOOG) 7-inch Nexus, which was announced last summer, and the 7.9-inch iPad Mini introduced by Apple (AAPL) last October.

Zillow Founders Meeting

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Z

NASDAQ :

US$45.59)
Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff, founders Lloyd Frink and Rich Barton, and VP of Rentals (& former CEO of Rentjuice) David Vivero. :
Analyst  believe rentals could contribute lightly to revenue in 2013 with a greater impact in 2014.

Graham continues to believe Zillow is attacking a large, nascent market with alacrity. Zillow hopes to bring ~1 million rental listings onto the platform by year-end, which would be ~1,000 additions per day for the rest of the year. Once this milestone is reached, management believes it can pursue monetization through several mechanisms.

Graham believes there is a “micro-TAM” of rental property manager marketing spend available for an online platform like Zillow’s that is greater than $500 million annually. In other updates, Graham believes Zillow’s broker relationships remain strong, an expanding real estate market is good for business, and the recently announced Google Now partnership could contribute meaningfully to visitor growth. Zillow operates a leading
network of real-estate sites with a clear mission to provide vital services to most of the real estate supply chain, including homeowners, buyers, sellers, renters, real estate agents, mortgage professionals, landlords, and property managers.

Google Stealth Climb

Google 貼牌冰箱(Google Refrigerator)

Google 貼牌冰箱(Google Refrigerator) (Photo credit: Aray Chen)

GOOG :

NASDAQ : US$805.85)
Let me Google this for you.

While all eyes have been on Apple’s (AAPL) decline over the past six months, Google has quietly seen its shares appreciate by more than $125, finally crossing the $800 mark on Tuesday.

The most recent leg of the rally started late last month after Google reported solid Q4 results. Earnings were $10.65 per share on revenue of $12.9 billion (ex-Motorola) while analysts were expecting $10.58 on $12.73 billion (ex-Motorola). Canaccord  Analyst Michael Graham notes that paid click growth remained strong despite volume-limiting policy changes.

Additionally, Nexus smartphone device sales appeared strong in the quarter while Motorola margin dilution continued to move out of the picture. IN Graham’s most recent monthly review, he noted that his screen on Google improved due to some upward estimate revisions following the
earnings release and accelerated growth interest while short interest continues to decline. Some positive metrics: core U.S. search queries grew 11% from the prior year, the first sign of growth in five months and comScore reported that traffic to Google Sites grew by 4% in December.

Graham believes investors have regained high hopes for Google for 2013 after a solid  Q4 report, and he notes the potential for significant multiple expansion if the company continue to instill confidence with another quarter or two of stable, predictable results.

Humana (HUM : NYSE : US$73.19), Net Change

Google Q4 Preview

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Google

GOOG : NASDAQ : US$724.93
BUY  Target: US$810.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Google owns the world’s largest search engine, some of the most visited websites on the web, including YouTube.com, as well as the  telecommunications equipment corporation Motorola Mobility. Google generates the vast majority of its revenue through advertising on the web and mobile devices.

Q4 PREVIEW: TRIMMING 2013 & 2014 ON KEY MODEL DYNAMICS
Summary
Google reports Q4 results on Tuesday, January 22. We believe expectations are largely reasonable, although we note there are more moving parts than normal in the model (the basis for our 2013-14 revisions) that could add to volatility around earnings.
Key Points
 We are trimming estimates for 2013 and 2014 based on

1) nearterm PLA dynamics,

2) Nexus-related gross margin dilution,

3) ongoing TAC escalation, and

4) lower MMI estimates.

Our new 2013 revenue and EPS estimates are $62.8 billion/$46.37, down from $64.9 billion/$50.57.
 Of note, we believe that Google gross margin, which should continue to trend lower for a few quarters, should have a good chance of
bottoming around Q3, as we forecast Nexus subsidies can shift from headwind to tailwind, more than offsetting what we see as a continued climb in TAC (and we introduce a working framework for forecasting TAC mix within).
Valuation
Our $810 price target is unchanged and is based on 17.5x our revised 2013 EPS estimate of $46.37.

Consumer Reports : Apple’s iPhone 5 Is The Worst Of The Top Smartphones

One of the reasons Apple’s stock has gotten clobbered lately is that many people think Apple has lost its edge in its most important product line: smartphones.

The iPhone has been such a mind-boggling success that it drives more than half of Apple’s overall profit. And for most of the past five years, Apple has had a lock on the “best smartphone in the market.”

In recent years, however, competitors have caught up with the iPhone. Some reviewers think Samsung’s new phone is superior to Apple’s latest phone. And many people expect Samsung to leap ahead when the new Galaxy S4 comes out this spring.

Another respected product reviewer, Consumer Reports, agrees with those who think Apple has lost its edge.

In fact, Consumer Reports’ conclusion is even more depressing for Apple fans.

Consumer Reports actually rates the iPhone 5 the worst of the top smartphones.

CR doesn’t spell out the reasoning for its numerical ratings (yet), but the results are still startling.

Below is the summary box of CR’s lab tests, which appears in the February issue of the magazine. The numerical ratings are close together, but they’re unequivocal.

As you can see, on AT&T and Spring, the iPhone 5 is rated behind two phones:

As you can see, on AT&T and Spring, the iPhone 5 is rated behind two phones:

* The LG Optimus G (Android)  [The what?]

* The Samsung Galaxy S III (Android)

On Verizon, meanwhile, the iPhone 5 is rated beneath at least three smartphones:

* The Motorola Droid Razr Maxx (Android, and owned by Google)

* The Motorola Droid Razr HD (Android, and owned by Google)

* The Samsung Galaxy S III (Android)

Consumer Reports iPhone 5

Consumer Reports

Not even ranked in the top 3 at Verizon? Ranked behind Google phones in addition to Samsung phones? That must feel like a bit of a slap in the face.

Apple had better be cranking on the iPhone 6…

Google And Motorola Are Working On A Top-Secret ‘X Phone’

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Reuters) – Google Inc is working with recently acquired Motorola on a handset codenamed “X-phone”, aimed at grabbing market share from Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Google acquired Motorola in May for $12.5 billion to bolster its patent portfolio as its Android mobile operating system competes with rivals such as Apple and Samsung.

The Journal quoted the people saying that Motorola is working on two fronts: devices that will be sold by carrier partner Verizon Wireless, and on the X phone.

Motorola plans to enhance the X Phone with its recent acquisition of Viewdle, an imaging and gesture-recognition software developer. The new handset is due out sometime next year, the business daily said, citing a person familiar with the plans.

Motorola is also expected to work on an “X” tablet after the phone. Google Chief Executive Larry Page is said to have promised a significant marketing budget for the unit, the newspaper said quoting the persons.

Google was not immediately reachable for comments outside regular U.S. business hours.

Amazon And Google Are On A Collision Course In 2013

* Amazon, Google rivalry will escalate in 2013

 

* Companies compete in increasing number of areas

* Areas include: Ads, retail, mobile, cloud computing

SAN FRANCISCO, Dec 23 (Reuters) – When Amazon.com Inc CEO Jeff Bezos got word of a project at Google Inc to scan and digitize product catalogs a decade ago, the seeds of a burgeoning rivalry were planted.

The news was a “wake-up” call to Bezos, an early investor in Google. He saw it as a warning that the Web search engine could encroach upon his online retail empire, according to a former Amazon executive.

“He realized that scanning catalogs was interesting for Google, but the real win for Google would be to get all the books scanned and digitized” and then sell electronic editions, the former executive said.

Thus began a rivalry that will escalate in 2013 as the two companies’ areas of rivalry grow, spanning online advertising and retail to mobile gadgets and cloud computing.

It could upend the last remaining areas of cooperation between the two companies. For instance, Amazon’s decision to use a stripped down version of Google’s Android system in its new Kindle Fire tablet, coupled with Google’s ambitious plans for its Motorola mobile devices unit, will only add to tensions.

The confrontation marks the latest front in a tech industry war in which many combatants are crowding onto each others’ turf. Lurking in the shadows for both Google and Amazon is Facebook with its own search and advertising ambitions.

“Amazon wants to be the one place where you buy everything. Google wants to be the one place where you find everything, of which buying things is a subset,” said Chi-Hua Chien, a partner at venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. “So when you marry those facts I think you’re going to see a natural collision.”

Both companies have a lot at stake. Google’s market capitalization of $235 billion is about double Amazon’s, largely because Google makes massive net earnings, expected by analysts to be $13.2 billion this year, based on a huge 32 percent net profit margin, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. By contrast, Amazon is seen reporting a small loss this year.

Amazon shareholders have been patient as the company has invested for growth but it will have to start producing strong earnings at some stage – more likely if it grows in higher margin areas such as advertising. Google’s share price, on the other hand, is vulnerable to signs of slowing margin growth.

AD CLASH

Not long after Bezos learned of Google’s catalog plans, Amazon began scanning books and providing searchable digital excerpts. Its Kindle e-reader, launched a few years later, owes much of its inspiration to the catalog news, the executive said.

Now, Amazon is pushing its online ad efforts, threatening to siphon revenue and users from Google’s main search website.

Amazon’s fledgling ad business is still a fraction of Google’s, with Robert W. Baird & Co. estimating Amazon is on track to generate about $500 million in annual advertising revenue – tiny, given it recorded $48 billion of overall revenue in 2011. By contrast, 96 percent of Google’s $38 billion in 2011 sales came from advertising.

But Amazon’s newly developed “DSP” technology, which taps into the company’s vast store of consumer purchase history to help marketers target ads at specific groups of people on Amazon.com and on other websites, could change all that.

“From a client’s perspective, the data that Amazon owns is actually better than what Google has,” said Mark Grether, the chief operating officer of Xaxis, an audience buying company that works with major advertisers. “They know what you just bought, and they also know what you are right now trying to buy.”

Amazon is discussing a partnership with Xaxis in which the company would help Amazon sell ads for the service, Grether noted.

Amazon Gains $3 billion – in nearly free money

The tech giant has quietly raised capital — at almost no cost- Praise The Fed

FORTUNE — While online shoppers were gobbling up e-deals on Cyber Monday, Amazon once again demonstrated its appetite for capital. It raised $3 billion in debt at ultra-low interest rates. Spread across three tranches of bonds that mature over 6 ½ years, Amazon will pay an average of 1.6%, which makes the loan nearly cost-free to Amazon, factoring in inflation. The unexpected debt-capital raise, Amazon’s first in 15 years, double’s Amazon’s cash stockpile. (The Wall Street Journal has a lot of the facts here.)

The swift move got me wondering what Amazon (AMZN) will do with the money. There are obvious starting points. Amazon recently cut a deal to buy its currently leased Seattle headquarters buildings for a bit more than $1 billion. It’s an odd decision, but Amazon is an odd company. It is investing heavily in new warehouses, the better to offer speedier delivery to customers, particularly in locations where Amazon recently has begun collecting state sales taxes—something it probably should have been doing all along. In my recent interview with Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos he deflected the question of whether Amazon wants to offer same-day delivery, saying the company hasn’t figured out how to make such a service economical. He said it’s hard enough investing simply to push back in the day when Amazon cuts off taking new orders.

MORE: Amazon’s Jeff Bezos: The ultimate disrupter

Given its size and growth, it’s also astounding that Amazon sells in just nine countries: the U.S., Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Counterintuitively, Bezos notes that Amazon is investing particularly aggressively at the moment in Spain and Italy. New regions are a natural place for Amazon to invest its cash.

Amazon obviously continues to invest heavily in its Kindle line, which is showing itself to be a worthy competitor to Apple (AAPL) and tablets that use Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system. (The Kindle Fire uses a version of Android too.) Amazon’s Lab126—it’s Kindle design center in Cupertino, Calif.—recently listed more than 200 open job positions.

Then there are Amazon’s many business lines, many of which compete against each other. To get a sense of the breadth of Amazon’s disparate businesses. I made a list of the 25 brands Amazon links to at the bottom of its U.S. home page, including, with one exception, the way Amazon describes them:

AbeBooks. Rare books and textbooks.

Amazon Local. Great local deals in your city.

Amazon Supply. Business, industrial and scientific supplies. (beta)

Amazon Web Services. Scalable cloud services.

Amazon Wireless. Cellphones & wireless plans.

Askville. Community answers.

Audible. Download audio books.

BeautyBar.com. Prestige beauty delivered.

Book Depository. Books with free delivery worldwide.

CreateSpace. Indie publishing made easy.

Diapers.com. Everything but the baby.

DPReview. Digital photography.

Fabric. Sewing, quilting and knitting.

IMDb. Movies, TV & celebrities.

Junglee.com. Shop online in India.

Myhabit. Private fashion designer sales.

Shopbop. Designer fashion brands.

Soap.com. Health, beauty and home essentials.

Wag.com. Everything for your pet.

Warehouse Deals. Open-box discounts.

Woot. Beta deal site. [My description. Amazon's is so confusing it defies description.]

Yoyo.com. A happy place to shop for toys.

Zappos. Shoes & Clothing.

Vine.com. Everything to live life green.

Casa.com. Kitchen, storage & everything home.

Amazon acquired many of these brands, like Audible, Zappos and IMDb. Some of the sites are clear copycats of more successful startup companies that Amazon hasn’t yet bought. Amazon includes a link at the bottom of its home page to its “Internet-based ads” business, a very real attack on the online advertising industry. It makes no mention of the robotics company it acquired this year, Kiva Systems, which continues to maintain its own web site and gives the appearance of serving non-Amazon customers.

So, how can Amazon spend $3 billion? Let us count the ways.

Available Now at AMAZON.COM ( go to books )

The Gold Investor’s Handbook – click here for   more detail on the in’s and outs of investing in gold

Apple Is Going To Be A Single-Digit Growth Company : Bernstein Analyst

When it rains, it pours.

 

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi is also cutting his price target on Apple. He’s at $750, down from $800, says Eric Savitz, who has his report.

Overall, Sacconaghi is very positive on Apple, though he warns that the company’s growth rate is going to slow to single digits in 2015.

He’s calling for sales growth to go from 22% for fiscal 2013 to 15% for fiscal 2014 to 8% for fiscal 2015.

He is not modeling in any mystery products like a TV that could boost sales.

As bad as it sounds, it’s not like investors have really been treating Apple like a growth stock lately. Its PE is at 12. So, this is kind of priced into the stock, as they say.

That’s the bad news. Let’s look at the good news from Sacconaghi.

By 2015, even with slow growth, Apple will have $49 billion free cash flow. The tablet market is “a rocket…an absolute juggernaut,” and if you were to spin out Apple’s iPad business alone, it would be the 11th biggest U.S. tech company with annual sales of $32 billion today.

He says that Apple has “option” value, which means there’s a potential for it to release a miracle product like a television or a cheap iPhone that would send earnings soaring and thus the stock, too.

Considering how universally bullish the world has been on Apple, reducing it to “option” value now is a bit of an insult.

English: Apple iPad Event

English: Apple iPad Event (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

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